Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 3
Single-entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass-multi-entry tournaments, in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet, the common flaws are usually that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces — not enough correlation or leverage; or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI, using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position-by-position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 3
STACKS
CHALK – Vikings vs. Chargers
The Vikings-Chargers 53.5-point total in the Minnesota dome breaks the slate. Not only are the Vikings implied at 27.5, but the Chargers are at 26.0.
Kirk Cousins is going to be heavy chalk as will Justin Jefferson. They also smash the slate in terms of points per dollar. There’s an opportunity cost to playing any other stack, sure, but ownership is a cost. Does the cost of this chalk’s ownership outweigh the salary we save through Cousins? I don’t think so.
I’d much rather go to the better passer in Justin Herbert in a back-and-forth shootout in which we’re relatively unsure how much they will wanna run the football. Given the choice between the better passer in the less balanced offense and the better receiver in the chalkier, more balanced offense, I side with the former.
This isn’t to say that I believe in my gut that the Vikings will be the worse stack. I’m telling you that the expected difference in fantasy points between the two is not as drastic as the ownership will reflect.
This game is gonna be fun. There should be a ton of fantasy points to go around. One way to play this is the good ol’ onslaught. Pick a QB and play two offensive weapons from each side. There’s enough of a disparity between this game and the rest of the slate to justify a play like this in single-entry fields.
I will pick the onslaught or the skinny game stack of one WR from each side. I will not be fading this game.
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