Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 4
Single-entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaws are usually that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position-by-position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 4
STACKS
CHALK – Bills vs. Dolphins
The 49ers have the highest total on the slate (28.75), but they also might as well be 26-point favorites over the Cardinals. The next highest belongs to the Bills in a fast-paced, back-and-forth, barn-burning shootout.
As only 3-point favorites over the Dolphins, this game carries the highest over-under on the slate. And deservedly so. Of course, just as Vegas is all over the Bills not to stop scoring, so are the DFS fields. Therefore, Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs should be the highest-owned stack on the slate.
Diggs has seen 32 targets through the first three weeks, more than double the next man on the team, Gabe Davis.
Davis isn’t a bad stacking partner with Allen- only 15 targets this season, but he’s getting a ridiculously repeatable 16.1 aDOT. With that said, he’s more of a lower-dollar stacking partner, as sharp touts have been touting the tout breath out of Davis- so much so that Allen-Davis might go over-owned in higher-dollar contests like the $100 Spy on DK.
There is a theory that Allen can be run naked, but I don’t buy it. This game is gonna be so high-scoring that he’s gonna take Diggs and / or Davis with him. He’s only run 12 times this season after running 7.5 times per game over the prior two seasons. I do buy into him as a rushing regression candidate, but the Bills aren’t scoring three or four TDs solely through Allen’s legs often enough to fade the receivers.
The Bills are an awesome play. The TEs are in play for stacks too. I wanna get Bills action and stack this game, just not through Allen at his ownership or price tag. Tua Tagovailoa allows me to get in the game stack more easily.
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