Sonty's NFL DFS Single-Entry Strategy: Week 6
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures. And they are also different from mass multi-entry tournaments in that we’re only able to fire a single bullet. Yet the common flaw is that a large chunk of the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces (not enough correlation or leverage), or the field will over-leverage for the size of that specific single-entry contest.
Whether or not we build a chalky lineup or a contrarian lineup is a flawed approach. We wanna maximize the projection in our lineup without absorbing too much ownership. So we’ll have higher-owned players, and we’ll have lower-owned players. The key is that we’re making good plays while differentiating from the field.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of pOWN%.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then we’ll go position-by-position.
NFL DFS Picks: Sonty’s Single-Entry Strategy for Week 6
STACKS
CHALK — Rams vs. Cardinals
The good chalk / bad chalk conversations are usually pretty trite and noisy. The Rams project really well, so we won’t engage in this awful form of discourse. We’ll discuss how you can play the Rams and why I won’t be playing the Rams.
The Rams check all of the boxes:
High 27.75 team total.
Excellent matchup.
Playing at home.
Good QB.
Cheap QB.
Great receiving corps.
A coach who enjoys running up the score.
In the Rams’ two wins this season, Matthew Stafford has thrown 38 and 40 times for 706 air yards. The Rams are heavily probable to win this game, coming in as 7-point favorites, so we should expect them to get there by airing it out to Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell.
Kupp came back last week like he never missed a game, getting 12 targets against a stout Philly defense. That was the headline. Buried on Page SIX is that Nacua saw 11 targets, putting him at 63 for the season. If we wanna save some cash for MME, Atwell is in the pool, but for single entry, we can play Kupp or pivot to Nacua and not lose much.
Or we can avoid the passing attack altogether and just play Kyren Williams, who has had 43 opportunities over the last two weeks to the 12 of Ronnie Rivers. The game script is more favorable toward Williams. Williams is gonna be highly owned in the lineups that don’t have Rams stacks though. Where we’re not playing Rams stacks, we can one-off Nacua on DK where he’s currently projected at around 8% ownership in MME instead of playing the 18% Williams.
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