NFL DFS: Under the Microscope

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-09 21:51:26

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Quick Grind

• Step 1: Roster Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham. Step 2: Profit
• High Vegas total = fantasy goodness
• Be careful targeting ATL offense – the NO D will surprise this year

New Orleans Saints

Any conversation of the New Orleans Saints offense must begin with QB Drew Brees. Last season Brees finished with Pro Football Focus’ 2nd highest passing grade en route to another 5000+ yard season, his third in a row. There’s little reason to believe he won’t make it 4 in a row this year, with a solid O-line, a healthy Jimmy Graham, and the addition of chess-piece talent and 1st-round pick WR Brandin Cooks. Brees’ first test in 2014 is one that he already has the answers to – an Atlanta Falcons squad whose secondary he carved up for 635 yards and 4 TDs between their two games last season. Few changes were made to a secondary that already allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing QBs last season. Toothless at every level of their defense, I think the Falcons have next to no chance of disrupting Brees in this one after making few changes to a squad that was 2013’s worst pass-rushing unit and sixth-worst coverage unit on PFF. There is very little analysis to be done here: roster Drew Brees. He’s the top QB option for Week 1.

The difficulty with Brees is that he spreads the ball around, making a traditional QB/WR less reliable. However there is one primary option that we CAN count on each week: TE Jim Graham. Graham offers the upside of a top-5 RECEIVER on a weekly basis and is nearly matchup-proof (although both Seattle and former-NE CB AqibTalib had his number last season). He has thoroughly abused the Falcons since emerging as an elite talent, racking up a 20-350-4 line in their 4 games since 2012. This year’s Falcons squad sports one of the worst LB and S corps he will see in 2014, including burn victim S William Moore, whom Graham carried into the endzone on a 44-yd TD last season (before breaking the goal post with a dunk). I don’t think Moore and Co are looking forward to Sunday. As with Brees, little analysis is even necessary: roster Jim James Graham. The limiting factor here isn’t his production, it’s his price and his usage. Keep in mind that Graham is both really expensive and will be a really popular selection. There are several cheaper options this week that have excellent upside (Julius Thomas, Zach Ertz, etc), so don’t feel obligated to fit in Graham everywhere.

Brees’ second option is #1 WR Marques Colston. Is it just me, or is nobody talking about Colston this year? He may be 31, but he’s still 6’4 and has hands and routes that Drew Brees trusts. Brandin Cooks may be getting all the buzz, but Colston will be the consistent, high-floor option in DFS this season. I’d be especially high on Colston here vs the abysmal Falcons pass D, but he actually draws the toughest matched up of the day in second-year CB Desmond Trufant. The lone bright spot in the Falcons secondary last season, Trufant, posted the 8th-best CB coverage rating on PFF, and tied for the league lead in passes defensed. I would anticipate him matching up with Colston when the WR lines up outside. Despite the matchup Colston gains additional value from his play in the slot — Colston played 56% of his snaps from the slot last season, and his preseason slot snaps (59.3%) suggest that does not figure to change much even with the addition of likely slot man Cooks. Expect Colston to also see snaps in the coverage of the inferior DBs that allowed the 4th-most points to opposing WRs last season. Colston is a reasonable 2nd or 3rd WR this week, but I worry about the snaps where he’s matched up with Trufant.

Lining up opposite Colston at the other outside WR spot this week is Nick Toon (Kenny Stills likely out w/ a hammy injury). For the unfamiliar, Toon is a 6’4, 218 lb receiver with solid route-running and hands, who simply hasn’t made an impact for the Saints even when thrust into game action. That said, reports are that he’s had a great camp, and as long as Drew Brees is the QB, he has to be mentioned. He’ll likely be the 4th or even 5th receiving option depending on personnel, behind Graham, Colston, Cooks, and Pierre Thomas.

And now, the moment you’ve all been waiting for… Brandin Cooks! Despite being one of the engines of the preseason hype train, the truth is that we don’t yet know how the Saints will use the potentially electrifying rookie with 4.33 wheels. He’s trendy for a reason though: everyone from beat writers to teammates have praised Cooks’ play, from the start of spring workouts through the preseason. But the most interesting praise came from QB Drew Brees, and it wasn’t about his athleticism, it was about his intelligence and retention. Beyond being a huge vote of confidence, I think it’s helpful for this week, because the one thing we do know about Cooks’ early usage is that the Saints have installed a specific package of plays that will feature him. I think that gives Cooks much more potential this week than other rookie WRs who have simply been assimilated into the regular playbook. Don’t target Cooks and expect a high floor – target him for the chance the Saints scheme him into space and he torches the defense. He’s an excellent GPP pick as your 3rd WR Week 1.

It’s difficult to make sense of the Saints RB situation right now, with Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Khiry Robinson all expected to play a role in the offense. Thomas is the passing specialist: he caught an absurd 77 passes in 2013 and his role should increase with the departure of Darren Sproles. Pierre Thomas is an intriguing high-floor option on full PPR sites (4+ catches in 13/16 games). Mark Ingram is the likely candidate for work between the 20s after a preseason where he flashed the #AngryIngram quickness and power that the Saints have been waiting to see. Khiry Robinson appears to be in line for the same type of work as Ingram but likely won’t see many carries unless Ingram falters early. If I’m taking a Saints RB vs the Falcons, I’m rolling the dice on Ingram. Unlike Thomas, whose price across the industry is elevated due to his consistent receiving production last year, Ingram’s price is among the lowest of any RBs expected to get the majority of their team’s carries. That makes Ingram a serious value.

Regardless of which Saints RB is carrying the ball, the Falcons are unlikely to put up much resistance, having yielded the 2nd-most yards per game (118.5) to opposing RBs in 2013. That figure is likely to drop a bit after the Falcons added DE Tyson Jackson and NT Paul Soliai this offseason. Both are established run defenders, with Jackson grading as a top-10 run-defending 3-4 DE and Soliai a top-20 NT. Beyond the new additions, though, are a fairly terrible linebacking corps. Expect the solid Saints OL to provide plenty of room to run.

Atlanta Falcons

I must be honest: I’m very torn on how to treat the Falcons offense in this game. Vegas suggests it’ll be a closely contested shootout, which would make the Falcons offensive players sneaky valuable this week. However, I don’t see that being the case at all. The Saints defense was vastly improved last year, and I see them taking another leap this year. In 2013, the Saints quietly had the 2nd ranked pass defense.
The case for garbage-time/catch-up production didn’t translate to opposing fantasy production in 2013 either: the Saints were 5th toughest vs QBs and 6th toughest vs WRs. Coupled with the addition of Jairus Byrd and an offseason in Rob Ryan’s defense, I don’t think the Falcons passing offense is in as good a situation as the Vegas line indicates.

An added area of concern for the Falcons passing game all season is their offensive line. They finished 2013 with PFF’s 3rd-worst pass-blocking grade. In theory they improved the line this offseason with the 1st-round selection of OT Jake Matthews. However, the Falcons lost starting LT Sam Baker for the season, which shuffles Matthews to LT and forces Lamar Holmes, one of last year’s biggest OL disasters, back into the lineup at RT. Holmes had the 2nd-worst rating of all qualified OT last season, and was 3rd-worst in pass-blocking after allowing 10 sacks and the 2nd-most total pressures in the NFL in 2013.

I expect Falcons QB Matt Ryan to be under constant duress in this one. He likely won’t have access to many long touchdowns with Byrd patrolling the deep zone, and outside of his two primary WRs, doesn’t have a source of easy completions or a mismatch against this defense. It doesn’t seem like a recipe for success when Brees and Co are unlikely to see much resistance on their drives. I’m going to stand my ground and say I’m avoiding Ryan completely.

The saving grace for Ryan in this game will be his top 2 WRs, Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones is coming off a significant foot injury that saw him miss most of 2013, but he recently declared himself unrestricted. If that’s true Jones’ elite athleticism should be on display all over the field Sunday. He’ll draw emerging stud CB Keenan Lewis, but a healthy Julio is largely matchup proof. Some of his upside will be mitigated by one of the NFL’s best coverage safeties in Byrd, but Julio does just fine getting yardage in chunks anyhow. He is a top-5 WR this week if you don’t believe in the Saints defense.

On the other side both literally and figuratively is 32 year old WR Roddy White. Age has proved largely irrelevant for the veteran White, who when healthy is still a stud WR. I actually like White quite a bit more than Jones in this one due to Jones’ negative matchup against Lewis (the Saints top cover CB), and White’s likely matchup with CB Patrick Robinson or Corey White. In either case I think White can be a regular route-winner, whereas Jones will have more trouble. If the matchup is as exploitable as I think it can be for White, I think he creeps toward being a top-10 WR Sunday.

The Falcons’ transition from Tony Gonzalez to new starter Levine Toilolo does not appear to be beneficial to their passing attack, or to our rosters. Toilolo is a mountain of a TE at 6’8, 260, but he has a hard time moving that big body well enough to likely ever be a consistent option in the passing game. With Tony G gone the Falcons need to establish a new red-zone target, and it’ll be hard to miss the 6’8 Toilolo lumbering across the end-zone. There are other enticing TE plays this week, though, so let’s take a ‘believe it when we see it’ approach to Toilolo’s role as a red-zone weapon and avoid him.

The overlooked player on the Falcons offense this week is RB and MASH regular Steven Jackson. Apparently over yet ANOTHER nagging injury (this one a hammy), SJax looks poise to carry the load week 1 versus a Saints defense that was 19th versus the run, but allowed the 10th-fewest FPs to opposing RBs in 2013. It remains to be seen just how much athleticism Jackson has to work with, but I’m more worried about his offensive line than I am Jackson himself – Jackson managed a slight positive rushing grade in his limited action last season, but his line graded 10th-worst in run-blocking. It’s not a particularly thrilling matchup versus an ascending Saints defense, either. But if there’s one thing Jackson has working in his favor it’s a large anticipated workload in a game that projects several scores for the Falcons. The added bonus here is perceptual: he won’t be heavily owned, due both to the recency of his injury and perceived lack of effectiveness. He’s not exciting, and he’s not young, but if we turned this into a ‘Pepsi RB Challenge’ and all I showed you was his likely workload, role in the offense, and the Vegas line… wouldn’t you get him in some lineups? Roster Jackson as your 2nd RB in a GPP and hope Vegas got this one right.

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears

Quick Grind
• Look for Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall to pick up where they left off in 2013
• Chicago has overhauled their DL, so temper your expectations for the BUF RBs
• Avoid the BUF passing attack

Buffalo Bills

News flash: the Buffalo Bills have a problem at quarterback. Incumbent starting QB EJ Manuel was indecisive and inaccurate throughout 2013, earning him the second-worst QB grade in the NFL on PFF. He hasn’t looked much better this preseason, and the Bills have responded by giving Kyle Orton $5 million to come out of retirement to be their #2 QB in 2014. Hopefully Manuel rises to the challenge once the real action starts, but until he does, he will be a player to avoid in DFS.

Manuel’s primary target this season will be 1st-round rookie WR Sammy Watkins. An extremely explosive and agile receiver, Watkins value in DFS is likely to be capped by the play of Manuel. The duo have been unable to build much chemistry this preseason as Watkins has been sidelined with an injury sustained in week three’s game. Given his QB and his team’s preference to run, run, and run some more, it’s best to avoid Watkins this week. The silver lining here is that his ownership will be miniscule, and with neither Bears safety remotely effective in coverage, Watkins shapes up as a GPP-only option for the bold. The REALLY bold.

Behind Watkins are a duo of WRs that will each have their moments this year, but are unlikely to provide consistent production. First is likely outside WR Mike Williams, who is an effective red-zone target and a good bet to lead the Bills in receiving TDs this season. He’ll face off with Bears CB Tim Jennings in 2WR sets, and rookie Kyle Fuller when the Bears shift to nickel. Williams has a significant height advantage over Jennings (6’2 vs 5’8), which the Bills should scheme to exploit in the red-zone. Be wary, though, as Jennings shadowed and shut down elite ‘big’ WRs Dez Bryant and Josh Gordon (until S Chris Conte gave up a 43-yard TD) last season. He may be little, but strong.

Manning (the word not the quarterbacks) the slot for the Bills is underrated WR Robert Woods. I really like Woods as a player, but I fear we’ll never see his true potential with Manuel at the helm of an already run-first scheme. There will be weeks where he’ll be a recommendation on full PPR sites due to his knack for getting open, but not until Manuel shows he can be accurate and sustain drives. Woods will draw CB Tim Jennings in slot coverage, which is another reason to avoid him.
Bills TE Scott Chandler becomes relevant whenever the team enters the red-zone, due mainly to being 6’7. However, after scoring 12 TDs between 2011-2012 Chandler managed just 2 in 2013, despite setting a career high in catches with 53. The arrival of Mike Williams impacts Chandler’s red-zone targets, which largely eliminates him from consideration most weeks. The Bears were 26th vs opposing TEs last season, but despite the favorable matchup, I want to see Chandler receive a few red-zone targets before I put him on my rosters. He’s a very low-upside punt TE with meh TD potential.

The real strength of the Bills offense is their 2nd-ranked rushing attack, led by RBs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. The duo are popular picks largely due to sheer volume, with the Bills leading the NFL in carries in 2013. Though both are valuable in DFS, their skill sets dictate their usage in different game types. CJ Spiller offers incredible upside (when healthy) capable of breaking and finishing long runs. His usage in the Doug Marrone offense is troubling compared to the creative scheme-into-space style of Chan Gailey, but Spiller remains a threat so long as he has the football. Fred Jackson keeps getting older, but manages to stay DFS-relevant due to his rock-solid roles as both the Bills’ red-zone and third-down RB. These roles give Jackson a high floor and solidify him as a perfect cash game play.

The appeal of both Bills RBs is magnified this week as they face a Bears defense that allowed an NFL-worst 141.4 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs in 2013. Most will see the Bears’ rank of 31st vs RBs in DFS and see dollar signs in their future, but I think we need to pump the brakes SLIGHTLY here. No one is more aware of how atrocious the Bears were vs the run last year than the actual Bears organization, and they’ve spent an awful lot of money to make sure it doesn’t happen again in 2014. Most are aware the Bears signed DE Jared Allen, but he hasn’t graded positively vs the run since 2011, bringing most of his value in the pass rush. The two key signings for the Bears run D, though, are DL Lamar Houston and Willie Young, who were 1st and 2nd, respectively, among all 4-3 DE in PFF’s Run Stop % metric in 2013. Essentially the Bears acquired two players who not only fit their scheme, but also most frequently made impact plays in run defense. They aren’t flashy names, but expect them to do the heavy lifting on rushing downs. The Bears also return a healthy DT Jay Ratliff and LB Lance Briggs, the latter of which will make a huge impact and force one of the Bears’ horrid LBs back into a reserve role. All this shouldn’t completely dissuade you from rostering RBs vs the Bears this year, but know they won’t be as plug n’ play as in 2013.

Chicago Bears

Bears QB Jay Cutler kicks off 2014 with what appears to be a stiff test on paper in the Buffalo Bills and their 4th-ranked pass defense. Supplementing this pass defense is the 9th-best pass-rush in the NFL, which will likely pose a problem both off the edges and up the middle against a Bears OL that ended 2013 ranked 4th-worst in pass protection. This could pose an especially large problem for Cutler, who graded worse than the league average both when pressured and when blitzed. Ultimately though the Bills pass rush my end a few Bears drives, the elite talents at WR will propel cutler to a reasonable, top-12 finish on Sunday.

The first of Chicago’s Twin Towers, WR Brandon Marshall will be the strongest receiving option for the Bears most weeks, and this week is no exception. Marshall derives extra value every week by kicking inside to the slot, which almost always yields a more favorable matchup. Regardless which version of likely outside cover man Stephon Gilmore shows up on Sunday, Marshall will certainly find production versus slot man Nickell Roby. Given the difficult matchups many of the elite WRs face in Week 1, Marshall has a sneaky shot to outproduce his price and his peers – he’s a top-5 option this week.

Opposite Marshall is 2013 breakout WR Alshon Jeffery. He draws the Bills toughest CB from 2013, Leodis McKelvin. McKelvin allowed just 46.1% of passes completed in his coverage in 2013. Though it’s a tough matchup, Jeffery has a significant size advantage over McKelvin and always holds red-zone appeal.

Often a forgotten man in the Bears offense due to the quality of playmakers around him, TE Martellus Bennett remains a solid receiving option. He may not find much room to roam Sunday, however, against a Bills defense that was 4th-toughest vs TEs in 2013. The Bills have exceptional coverage LBs (though it will be hard for them to overcome the loss of their top LB Kiko Alonso), which limits Bennett’s YAC potential. He’s always an option in the red-zone, but might not produce much else.

The engine of the Bears offense is elite do-it-all RB Matt Forte. One of the true dual-threat RBs, Forte caught a ludicrous 74 balls last year. His consistency in the passing game last season made him an exceptional choice across all game types. This week Forte faces an underrated Bills front seven, who, despite losing their best LB for the season, are emerging as a near-elite defense. You might notice a disparity between the Bills rushing defense rank (28th) and their DVP for RBs (14th). One reason the ranks are that different is because while the Bills allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game (116.3), they also allowed the least receiving yards to RBs. Forte should get enough volume such that whatever YAC he loses to the Bills RB coverage, he more than makes up for with carries against a run D that simply can’t stop the bleeding. There just aren’t enough reasons to justify having Forte any lower than a top-5 RB, with upside to challenge Charles and McCoy if he gets enough touches.

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans

Quick Grind

• Low total reflects limited options in this game
•WAS players are risky plays until RG3 proves he can be a competent NFL pocket passer
• Due to the previous points this game will be overlooked, creating immense GPP upside should RG3 remember he’s RG3.

Washington Redskins

Prior to the preseason, many experts were predicting a breakout from Redskins QB Robert Griffin III, assuming a complete physical recovery and return of his trademark athleticism. However, RG3 has seen a large setback over the last few weeks of game action, unrelated to his previous injury. He simply looks like he forgot how to play quarterback. We should be careful not to assume that the RG3 we see vs the Texans is a carbon copy of what we saw in the preseason, but that thought is firmly in most people’s minds as they gloss over the Redskins signal-caller, and ignore his weapons as well.

It makes sense to avoid RG3 in DFS this week. But before we do I want to make one comment about perception. Consider the effect of the past few weeks on the perception of RG3 and the Redskins offense. 1) RG3 looks unable to make the transition to traditional QB play 2) the Redskins offense looked like one of the worst offenses in the NFL this preseason 3) the Vegas total is incredibly low for an offense with so much talent 4) The Texans are an imposing matchup on paper. Given all those factors it makes complete sense to fade RG3 and Co this week. But everyone is thinking that – the Redskins passing offense will be the lowest owned this week as it will all season. Of all the contrarian plays this week – RG3 has the highest individual ceiling, and likely the greatest advantage due to his ownership %. It’s only crazy if it doesn’t work.

Regardless of the state of RG3, he is now surrounded by the strongest receiving corps of his NFL career. The biggest addition this offseason was WR DeSean Jackson. Coming off a career year in Chip Kelly’s offense, Jackson likely inherits the AJ Green role as the ‘Z’ receiver in Jay Gruden’s system. Jackson’s success is contingent on Griffin’s success, but expect fireworks if the two can get their timing right. This week Jackson faces a Texans defense that gave up the 5th-fewest FPs to WRs in 2013. Jackson’s value depends on this matchup here. The Texans have a shadow CB in Jonathan Joseph who shadowed all types of #1 WRs in 2013. On the other hand Kareem Jackson has been a perpetual underachiever and could get touched up quickly without help vs Jackson. It’s a unique dice roll, but unlike Garcon, if DJax gets a favorable matchup and is used how we anticipate,

WR Pierre Garcon is the second option in the Redskins passing game. Garcon finished 2013 with a 113-1346-5 line and led the NFL in targets – he is a lock to regress this season, especially with the arrival of Jackson. Regardless, Garcon clearly has Griffin’s trust after their 2013 campaign. I worry that JoJo might shadow him instead of DJax, and given the state of this offense right now that’s enough for me to largely avoid Garcon.

The third Redskins receiving option is second-year TE Jordan Reed. As a rookie Reed was a revelation for the Redskins: his production through the 9 games he played put him on pace for an 80-886 line. Rookie TEs NEVER do that. Reed doesn’t have much size (6’2, 237 lbs) but has plus athleticism and is regularly praised for his route running. His role in the offense likely caps his upside but he has the potential to dominate his matchup and post top-3 TE weeks given enough targets. This week Reed face a Houston defense that appears middle-of-the-pack vs the TE (18th). The Texans do return All-Pro LB Brian Cushing, but have uninspiring safety play that Reed could expose. There’s risk due to the QB, but Reed remains a top-10 option at TE, with upside for a higher finish if RG3 locks onto him.

With all the uncertainty in the passing game, the Redskins will likely run the offense through RB Alfred Morris. Offering nothing in the passing game limits Morris’ upside, especially on full PPR sites, but his carry volume keeps his floor high. In what projects to be a grind-it-out, back-and-forth affair, Morris will benefit from extra carries. He is an unspectacular 2nd RB option on Sunday, behind similar high-volume backs who also feature in the passing game.

Houston Texans

There’s a new sheriff in Houston, and they call him The Amish Rifle (no, really, they do).
After a year of bottom-barrel QB play, the Texans decided their fans deserved better, and signed the consistently mediocre Ryan Fitzpatrick to steer the ship in 2014. Despite clear physical limitations, Fitzpatrick is a fearless passer who at the very least keeps the fantasy value of his team’s #1 option afloat. As an option himself, Fitzpatrick’s usually modest passing numbers are often boosted by 20-50 rushing yards. Even with a rushing boost in this one, Fitzpatrick is an unappealing option at QB.

The Texans are full of elite players that aren’t getting any love this season. Exhibit 1A: top passing game option WR Andre Johnson. The poster child for the “old but not forgotten” club, Johnson turned 33 this offseason, a few months after wrapping up his second-straight 100+ catch, 1400+ yard season. A master of his craft, Johnson had the 6th-highest receiving grade on PFF in 2013 despite the atrocities the Texans used at QB. We shouldn’t assume FitzMagic will tank Johnson’s value if Matt Schaub and Case Keenum couldn’t in 2013. Look for Johnson to get open at will against the Redskins CB duo of DeAngelo Hall and David Amerson, whose breakdowns in coverage contributed to the Redskins allowing the 7th-most FPs and 6th-most receptions to WRs in 2013. I trust The Amish Rifle to get Johnson the ball any way he can, and I’m glad that many won’t share that opinion. It’ll make you look awfully smart taking him as your #2 WR.

Until opinions come around on Andre Johnson and Arian Foster, they will remain tremendous values in solid matchups like this one. But the sneakiest value on the Texans is found at TE, where starter Garrett Graham should see plenty of targets from Fitzpatrick as the third or fourth option in the passing game. In 2013 MrFitzmagic made Delanie Walker look like a solid receiving option for a stretch (he’s not), and throughout his career he’s shown he loves throwing to big-bodied, reliable targets that just so happen to be within the range of his noodle arm. Fitzpatrick’s lack of arm strength will be Graham’s gain this season. We might not see it this week, however, as Graham is a true game-time decision on Sunday. The Texans loss is our gain as min-priced CJ Fiedorowicz will assume the same role. Whichever TE starts will have a favorable matchup.

It wasn’t long ago that the Texans offense ran through RB Arian Foster, but it sure feels like it. My how a season of injuries passes the time. When healthy, Foster is a true every-down back with a history of adding value in the passing game (119 catches for 1221 ydsbetween 2010-2011). He’s apparently healthy now after sitting out the entire preseason, so expect his usual 20ish touches in a low-total, tight-spread game that might result in an even larger workload. Foster should have little trouble cracking a Redskins D that was rated second-worst vs the run on PFF and gave up the 4th-most FPs to RBs in 2013. An additional bonus is the Redskins 30th ranked scoring defense, which also gave up the most RB rushing TDs per game in the NFL last season. Use the stigma surrounding Foster to your advantage and roster him with confidence.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Quick Grind
• Low Vegas total limits potential plays
• Avoid CLE passing game beyond Jordan Cameron

Cleveland Browns

The low Vegas total in this game certainly doesn’t inspire confidence in a Browns offense that probably won’t score a whole lot of points this season. But at least we get to see the NFL debut of rookie QB Johnny Manz… wait, no, the Browns are starting Brian Hoyer instead. I doubt we see Hoyer for more than a few games this season as he has very little chance of success with minimal weapons and a conservative scheme. Hoyer’s matchup vs the Steelers is troubling on paper (9th vs the pass and 11th vs QBs), but without real weapons to speak of, there are very few matchups were he would be a viable option anyway. There are higher upside punt QBs to roster this week.

Without Josh Gordon, the only stud option in this passing attack is 2013 breakout TE Jordan Cameron. Most weeks Cameron’s value will be a tug-of-war between defenses focusing on him, and high volume targets from a Browns team desperate for production in the pass game. This week I think Cameron is better suited for full PPR sites, as the Browns aren’t expected to do much scoring but Hoyer will likely stare down Cameron like his job depended on it (it does). I wouldn’t take Cameron over the top options (Graham, Orange Julius, etc) this week, but he makes a fine play if you want to fade the studs or are playing on a site that has a FLEX position.

The two Browns WRs worth mentioning are outside WR Miles Austin and slot man Andrew Hawkins. Neither are especially enticing this week given their roles, the offensive scheme, and the Steelers ranking 10th vs WRs. Hawkins likely offers the higher floor.

Finally getting his shot at a true lead role, RB Ben Tate is ticketed to be a three-down back this year for the Browns. His one-cut running style is a great fit for Cleveland’s zone-run scheme, making him a sneaky option in DFS until he gets a few strong performances under his belt and people catch on. The matchup vs the Steelers could be especially profitable: the perception of the Steelers as a fearsome defense remains but there real effectiveness has begun to erode of late, and they finished only 21st vs the run in 2013. I like Tate as an under-owned second RB this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s hard to endorse Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger facing a Browns defense he’s struggled against recently (19/31 for 179 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT in their last meeting). It’s unlikely he’ll need much passing volume to establish a lead, and the Steelers will likely be content to wear down the Browns with their rushing attack. Though Ben may expose the Browns options at CB beyond Haden, don’t expect high yardage totals in a game that should be the Steelers early.

The top option in the Steelers passing attack is WR Antonio Brown, EVEN when he’s facing lockdown CB Joe Haden. It sounds crazy, but Brown is likely the only WR in the NFL to beat Haden consistently across multiple seasons, with a 19-355-3 line over their last 4 clashes. Having one of the top-3 most difficult matchups of the night, most will fade Brown. But in a GPP there’s now several data points that suggest the quietly elite (yeah, I said it) Brown can win vs Haden’s coverage.

An overlooked option in this game could be the Steelers new #2 WR Markus Wheaton. Wheaton inherited the #2 role after Emmanuel Sanders left for Denver, and should be a nice complementary option to Brown. Wheaton doesn’t have much of a track record in the NFL, but his likely matchup, rookie CB Justin Gilbert, does, having given up over 200 yards and 3 TDs this preseason. I thought almost any corner would be an improvement over 2013 burn victim Buster Skrine… but Gilbert gives him an early run for his money. Wheaton makes a perfect target for your 3rd WR in a GPP – he could absolutely torch whatever the Browns throw out opposite Haden.

I don’t know how he does it, but TE Heath Miller just keeps producing. After looking done in 2013 following an injury, Miller is back to being a reliable target for Big Ben, going 5-53-1 in the dress rehearsal and suggesting he’s the same as he ever was. I’m not sure he’ll match 2012s 71-816-8 line again in his career, but he certainly looks to be a reliable DFS TE going forward. The Browns were middle of the pack vs the TE in 2013, which does nothing to dissuade me from rolling out Miller as a high-floor option in Week 1.

It’s not often a rookie runner earns a full load of carries AND is trusted on third-downs, but that’s exactly what RB Le’Veon Bell did in 2013. Bell relies on volume for production rather than having big-play potential, but being able to lock in 18-20 carries and 2-3 receptions a game makes Bell an extremely reliable player in real-life and DFS. I like the Browns front seven quite a bit as an emerging unit, but until they prove otherwise we should treat them as the average unit they were in 2013 (18th vs the rush, 16th in FPs to RBs). With 20+ touches all but guaranteed and the potential for more if this becomes a smashmouth game for both teams, Bell should flirt with 100 total yards and punch in a TD. Add him to the shortlist of solid options for your 2nd RB.