NFL DFS FanDuel Ownership Projections: Week 1 Preview
In this space, we’ll preview FanDuel ownership projections for the Sunday main slate of Week 1 of the NFL DFS season. We’ll look at chalk. We’ll look at contrarian plays. We’ll look at plays that should be owned that they will be. We’ll look at plays that should be owned less than they should be.
This isn’t a comprehensive look at ownership throughout the slate, but a peek into what stands out. The reasoning behind the analysis can be applied to dozens of other players on the slate.
NFL DFS Week 1 Fanduel Ownership Preview
- Chris Olave ($7,300) – 19.58%
- Kenneth Walker ($7,100) – 19.98%
- Justin Jefferson ($9,500) – 17.44%
- Jalen Hurts ($9,000) – 8.59%
- Javonte Williams ($6,500) – 2.30%
Week 1 NFL DFS ownership projections for FanDuel are accurate at the time of publication and subject to change. Sign up for Premium to get updated ownership projections all the way to kickoff.
FanDuel Ownership Notes
Deep Threats are Great, But Quarterbacks Matter
Chris Olave is a fantastic talent. If wide receivers truly create their aDOT, Olave’s 14.2 aDOT would make him elite. The problem is that everyone is aware of his deep threat and that Derek Carr is throwing him footballs.
Even if we forget the fact that Carr had a 2.8 INT% last season, his IAY/PA was only 6.6. Sure, Olave is cheap, but Carr isn’t the guy we need throwing balls to Olave to bank on Olave producing in proportion to his ownership.
Salary Can Cure Ownership and Usage Concerns
Salary and points per dollar aren’t the only things that matter. Ownership matters a lot. But when we have a guy like Kenneth Walker playing for a run-first coach as a cheap bellcow, we can be liberal with our ownership guidelines and play him as chalk.
In Walker’s 11 starts, he averaged nearly 20 carries per game and 2.5 targets. Zach Charbonnet is there. We know he’s there. We also have to know that — above everything else — when we think about the Seahawks offense is that Pete Carroll wants to run the ball a lot with one guy. He’s been like this his entire NFL career, and we’ve been burned throughout his entire career trying to catch the next lightning in the Seahawks bottle. Walker is talented, he’s cheap, and he’ll get the ball a lot.
On the other side of the ownership and safety spectrum is Javonte Williams. We have no idea how Sean Payton is gonna use Williams and Samaje Perine. Anyone who tells you that they know for sure is blowing smoke. But we do know that Williams had 1,219 yards from scrimmage in a timeshare in 2021. What we do know is that in four games with Russell Wilson in 2022, he saw 22 targets. What we do know is that Williams is the most explosive back on the depth chart. And we also know that a running back in a Sean Payton offense doesn’t need to be a bellcow to break slates.
We don’t know how big Williams’ role will be, but no one’s gonna play him. He doesn’t project very well, but the ownership and salary risk we take on for the chance that Williams breaks the slate against a crappy Raiders squad is very small.
Salary Irrationally Depresses Ownership
Jalen Hurts and Justin Jefferson are probably the best fantasy assets at their positions, but they’re priced up and going under-owned in the process.
Hurts is narrowly the highest-projected quarterback in median points, but is fifth among quarterbacks in projected ownership.
Jefferson is the highest-projected wide receiver in median points (by almost a full point) but is fourth among wide receivers in projected ownership.
This isn’t to say that we gotta lock them in or go overweight. This is just to remember that when a price point feels scary to you for a great talent or a great projection, remember that it scares the average DFS player even more than you, making the expensive player go under-owned. Sure, we want the most points for the least amount of salary, but don’t let analysts telling you that a guy is expensive take you completely off of a high projection.