NFL First Look: Divisional Round
Divisional Round Schedule
| MATCHUP | VEGAS LINE | AWAY TOTAL | HOME TOTAL | DATE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore at New England | NE -7 | BAL: 20.25 | NE: 27.25 | Saturday, January 10th | 4:35 PM |
| Carolina at Seattle | SEA -11 | CAR: 14.0 | SEA: 25 | Saturday, January 10th | 8:15 PM |
| Dallas at Green Bay | GB -6 | DAL: 23.5 | GB: 29.5 | Sunday, January 11th | 1:05 PM |
| Indianapolis at Denver | DEN -7 | IND: 23.5 | DEN: 30.5 | Sunday, January 11th | 4:40 PM |
1) Quarterback Quandary
Aaron Rodgers (vs. Dallas Cowboys) – When Rodgers is playing at home, he is typically the top quarterback target that week. In eight home starts this season, Rodgers has averaged 292 yards and 3.1 touchdowns per game. His quarterback rating at home is at 133.2 this season. While it is expected to be very cold in Green Bay this weekend (around 10 degrees), there is very little chance of snow and the wind is not expected to be a factor. While Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck are close behind, I have Rodgers ranked as my top quarterback this week. The Cowboys have been average against the pass this season, allowing the 15th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. If the Packers can get out to an early lead, it will hurt the Cowboys’ ability to dominate the time of possession. Hopefully Rodgers will be able to practice this week to squash any doubts that he will be limited by his calf injury.
Tom Brady (vs. Baltimore Ravens) – The Patriots face the Ravens in the playoffs for the fourth time in the last six years. The Ravens have gotten the best of Brady in those meetings, winning two of the first three. Brady is one of those players that always has a chip on his shoulder, and he would love to avenge those losses with a win this week. Brady is also one of the best bad-weather quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, a trait that has suited him well in the playoffs. While it’s not expected to snow, it’s expected to be cold, with temperatures around 20 degrees. Brady has a terrific track record in the playoffs and draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Ravens this week. The Ravens own one of the best run defenses in the NFL, but they are vulnerable through the air. If the Patriots can find a way to limit the Ravens’ pass rush, Brady should be able to carve up this shaky secondary.
2) Running Back Rampage
C.J. Anderson (vs. Indianapolis Colts) – The Broncos have finally found their power workhorse back to perfectly complement Peyton Manning. Anderson has played near-perfect football since taking over as the starter. Over his last six games, he’s racked up 779 yards from scrimmage and found the end zone nine times. He also averaged a hefty 23.3 touches per game during that stretch. Many experts have expressed concern about his workload now that Ronnie Hillman is back in the mix, but I see the Broncos using him mostly as a change-of-pace back this week. Anderson is their bell cow running back and should see 20+ touches this week against the Colts, with an arrow pointing upwards if the Broncos are playing with a lead. Anderson should find success on the ground against the below-average run defense of the Colts.
Eddie Lacy (vs. Dallas Cowboys) – The Packers have done an amazing job of limiting Lacy’s workload this season, keeping him fresh for the stretch run. Lacy saw less than 20 touches in six of the last 10 games of the season. Even with limited touches, Lacy has managed to compile at least 100 yards from scrimmage or score a touchdown in each of his last 10 games. Now that we’ve reached the postseason, I expect the Packers to unleash Lacy. Don’t be surprised if he has the most touches of any back this week, including DeMarco Murray. Game flow can always dictate touches, but I expect the Packers to be playing with a lead in this one. In terms of the matchup, this is a favorable one. The Cowboys are graded as a bottom 10 run defense and are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to the position this season.
Daniel Herron (vs. Denver Broncos) – Herron was the difference maker in leagues last week. Basically, if you faded Herron, your lineups were probably in some danger. He finished the game with 56 rushing yards, 85 receiving yards (on 11 receptions), and a touchdown. Herron did have two fumbles in the wildcard game against the Bengals, but Coach Pagano assured everyone that the Colts will “stay the course” with Herron this week against the Broncos. Herron may not find a ton of running room against a top five run defense of the Broncos, but he should be heavily involved in the passing game once again. Depending on game flow, I expect him to see around 15 carries and 6+ targets through the air. Luckily, his price didn’t go up too much on either FanDuel ($6,100) or DraftKings ($5,300).
3) Wide Receiver Watch
Dez Bryant (vs. Green Bay Packers) – If you had Bryant last week, you were probably disappointed with his 3 receptions for only 48 yards. The Lions used plenty of double teams on Bryant, which led to only three targets all game. The Packers have come out and said that they will not overextend their scheme to try to shut down Bryant. That’s music to my ears this week, as the Cowboys will likely be playing from behind in this one. We have seen Bryant take over games on numerous occasions this season, and the Cowboys will need a monster game from him if they are going to have any chance of pulling off the upset. I’m expecting double-digit targets for Bryant this week, with at least a couple of looks inside the redzone.
T.Y. Hilton (vs. Denver Broncos) – The Broncos have a terrific secondary, but speed is hard to match up against. We saw Hilton get behind the Bengals’ coverage on a few different occasions last week, and if it weren’t for a few drops, he could have had a monster fantasy outing. He still finished the game with a respectable 6 receptions (14 targets) for 103 yards. As I mentioned with Herron, the Broncos own an elite run defense and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Luck air it out 45-50 times in this one. That’s great news for Luck’s number one target in the passing game. Hilton will likely have a fairly low level of ownership again this week, as the masses will gravitate to the likes of Bryant, Nelson, and Thomas. Hilton could be the difference maker in your leagues this week.
Julian Edelman (vs. Baltimore Ravens) – Edelman sat out the last two games of the regular season while dealing with concussion symptoms, but should be ready to go for this week’s game against the Ravens. Prior to his concussion, Edelman had re-established himself as Brady’s go-to receiver. In his previous four contents, Edelman racked up 33 receptions (51 targets) for 366 yards and 2 touchdowns. We’ve already hit on the fact that the Ravens secondary is beatable, and the fact that they have such a great pass rush leads me to believe that the Patriots will lean heavily on their short passing attack. Edelman does not get the credit that he deserves in daily fantasy, but he is one of the safest cash game options this weekend.
4) Towering Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski (vs. Baltimore Ravens) – With the Patriots clinching the division before their Week 17 game against the Bills, Gronkowski got the week off. The Patriots also had a first-round bye, which means that Gronkowski will have three full weeks of rest ahead of their game against the Ravens this weekend. A healthy, well rested Gronkowski is a scary Gronkowski. He is averaging close to nine targets per game this season, including just over one target per game in the redzone.
Jason Witten (vs. Green Bay Packers) – If you don’t want to pay up for a tight end this week, Witten offers great value at his price point. Witten was more and more involved in the Cowboys offense down the stretch of the regular season. He finished last week’s game against the Lions with 5 receptions for 53 yards, including a huge catch late in the fourth quarter that kept the Cowboys’ drive alive. Witten should see a healthy dose of targets in a game in which the Cowboys will likely be playing from behind.