NFL First Look: Week 1

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-04 19:34:57

NFL First Look provides you with a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for next week’s NFL matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek Farnsworth aka Notorious (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each Monday night after MNF, Notorious will give you his initial thoughts on the matchups for the upcoming week and who he is looking to target.

Week 1 NFL Schedule

The only thing that remotely comes close to the excitement of the start of the NFL season is the feeling that a kid gets on his very last day of school before summer vacation. Kids anxiously wait for that final bell to ring while just like we anxiously wait for that first Thursday night game. We’ve been tortured with no football for months and months and now it is finally here!

I am as excited as anyone for the season to start. Not only am I pumped to meet everyone out in Vegas for the RotoGrinders party, but I’m pumped to block out my entire Sundays for football. The MLB First Look was a bit for baseball, so we decided to bring you the same column for football. If you have any ideas that you would like to see implemented, feel free to leave a comment and we will take it into consideration. For now, enjoy the Week 1 primer:

1) Running Back Rampage

Montee Ball (vs. Indianapolis Colts): In case you haven’t heard, Knowshon Moreno is no longer in Denver. Moreno was a Top-5 fantasy RB last season and was technically in a time split with Ball. That just goes to show how valuable RB’s are in a Peyton Manning offense. Now that Moreno is gone, it clears the way for Ball to be the primary back. I’m expecting big things from Ball this season and plenty of redzone touches. I think Ball comes out of the gates firing as he is facing a Colts defense that was pretty inept at stopping the run last season.
Andre Ellington (vs. San Diego Chargers): Much like Ball, Ellington should see a huge increase in his workload now that Rashard Mendenhall is gone. Ellington was one of the most explosive RB’s in the league last season, but saw very few touches. Bruce Arians is hoping to give Ellington around 20 touches per game this season which is a big boost over last year. He is a threat to break long runs as well as catching the ball out of the backfield. Jonathan Dwyer could vulture a few TD’s in goal line situations this season, but Week 1 is the perfect time to buy low on Ellington before his price skyrockets.

2) Top QB/WR Handcuffs to Target

Matt Ryan / Julio Jones / Roddy White (vs. New Orleans Saints): Last season was an odd year for Ryan and the Falcons. Not only did he lose his top wideout in Julio Jones, but he also had a hobbled Roddy White for the entire season. Look for this high-flying offense to get back on track this season now that Ryan has his two biggest weapons back. While the Saints were a much improved defense in 2013, the games between the Saints and Falcons are typically shootouts. The Ryan/Jones/White combo could pay off nicely in tournaments.
Jay Cutler / Brandon Marshall / Alshon Jeffery (vs. Buffalo Bills): You can argue that Cutler has the best WR combo in the entire NFL. Marshall has been an elite WR for years and Jeffery is coming off of a huge 2013 campaign. The sky is the limit for the Bears offense this season and it’s really going to come down to Cutler and his arm. Cutler managed to cut down his on his bad decisions under Coach Trestman last season. Look for Cutler and the Bears offense to get off to a hot start this season against the Bills who lost their defensive coordinator (to the Browns) and their emerging star LB Kiko Alonso (to injury).

3) Look at the Tight End on That One

Zach Ertz (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars): There were big hopes for Ertz last season in Chip Kelly’s fast paced offense, but he turned out to be a fantasy bust as Brent Celek ended up getting the majority of the passing routes. Expect that to change in 2014 as Ertz is expected to be a key piece in this offense now that Desean Jackson is gone. Ertz has looked great in the preseason and should be a major redzone threat. Ertz is one of the better value plays on the board in Week 1 and draws a great matchup against the Jaguars who had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last season.

4) Shootout of the Week

Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts (O/U = 55.5): This game features the highest O/U total of the week and I’m expecting there to be a ton of fantasy points scored in this one. Both of these offenses can put points on the board in a hurry and both of these QB’s aren’t scared to take some shots down the field. Taking a few players from this game may not be the worst idea.

5) Offense to Avoid

Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers): This game has one of the lowest O/U totals in Week 1 and for good reason. The Panthers did very little in the offseason to help Cam Newton and it’s looking like another year where the defense is going to have to carry the Panthers. Their offensive line looks shaky at best and the RB combination of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart isn’t scaring anyone. I should also mention that they lost their best wide-out Steve Smith. I will be avoiding all Panthers in their Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers.