NFL First Look: Week 10
Week 10 Schedule
| MATCHUP | VEGAS LINE | VEGAS TOTAL | DATE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland at Cincinnati | CIN -6 | 44.0 | Thursday, November 6th | 8:25 PM |
| Kansas City at Buffalo | KC -1.5 | 42.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 1:00 PM |
| Miami at Detroit | DET -3 | 44.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 1:00 PM |
| Dallas at Jacksonville | DAL -5 | 44.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 1:00 PM |
| San Francisco at New Orleans | NO -3 | 49.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 1:00 PM |
| Tennessee at Baltimore | BAL -9.5 | 44.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 1:00 PM |
| Pittsburgh at NY Jets | PIT -4.5 | 45.5 | Sunday, November 9th | 1:00 PM |
| Atlanta at Tampa Bay | ATL -1 | 46.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 1:00 PM |
| Denver at Oakland | DEN -11.5 | 49.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 4:05 PM |
| St. Louis at Arizona | ARI -7 | 43.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 4:25 PM |
| NY Giants at Seattle | SEA -9 | 43.5 | Sunday, November 9th | 4:25 PM |
| Chicago at Green Bay | GB -7 | 53.0 | Sunday, November 9th | 8:30 PM |
| Carolina at Philadelphia | PHI -6 | 48.0 | Monday, November 10th | 8:30 PM |
Note: Stats listed are currently only updated through Week 8
1) Quarterback Quandary
Aaron Rodgers (vs. Chicago Bears) – Rodgers was well on his way to another big fantasy outing against the Saints before injuring his hamstring. Things quickly took a turn for the worse after his injury, but he still finished with 439 yards from scrimmage and two TDs. The good news is that the Packers had their bye week in Week 9 and he practiced in full on Monday. The Packers’ medical staff is expected him to be close to 100% come Sunday. This week he squares off against a Bears defense that, according to ProFootballFocus (PFF), struggles to put any pressure on the QB (graded 24th in pass rush), and also struggles in the secondary (graded 27th in pass coverage). The total for this game is set at 53 points, which is by far the highest total of the week. Rodgers should have no problem carving up a shaky Bears’ secondary on his way to another monster fantasy outing.
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. New York Jets) – You can talk about the great play of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or Andrew Luck, but none of them have thrown for 12 TDs in a span of only two weeks. That’s a feat that only Roethlisberger has accomplished. After throwing 6 TDs against the Colts in Week 8, he put on an encore performance with 6 more TDs against the Ravens in Week 9. It’s typically not a great idea to chase points in weekly fantasy football, but his price is still affordable and his ownership percentage was still fairly low last week. Throw in a terrific matchup against the Jets and we have ourselves a great play. The Jets are ranked 17th in pass rush, 24th in pass coverage, and have allowed more fantasy points to opposing QBs than other any team in the NFL. What’s even better is that the Jets have a very stout run defense, which forces teams to beat them through the air.
2) Running Back Rampage
DeMarco Murray (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Last week was the first week that Murray wasn’t listed as a top play in the NFL First Look column. It’s not a coincidence that it was also the first week that he failed to rush for at least 100 yards. He obviously wasn’t at his best after seeing his name excluded from the list last week, so DeMarco, I apologize. The only way to make it right is to get him back on track by listing him as the top play. A matchup against the Jaguars may not hurt either. The Jaguars gave up a huge day on the ground to Jeremy Hill last week and are ranked 25th in run defense according to PFF. With Tony Romo ailing, the Cowboys will look to get back to the ground-and-pound game that worked so well in the first eight weeks of the season.
Marshawn Lynch (vs. New York Giants) – Lynch was projected by many to re-establish himself with a cupcake matchup against the Raiders at home. Lynch did just that with 143 yards from scrimmage and two TDs. Lynch could have had an even bigger day if two of his long runs weren’t called back by holding penalties. After getting 26 touches last week, he should have nothing to complain about heading into their Week 10 matchup against the Giants, who have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Without many other elite options at RB this week, pay up for Lynch in a prime matchup at home.
LeSean McCoy (vs. Carolina Panthers) – McCoy was one of my favorite overall plays last week. He played well with 123 yards from scrimmage on 25 touches, but he had a TD vultured by Chris Polk after McCoy had broken a couple of long runs to set up the Eagles in the red zone. The good news here is that McCoy has now had at least 21 carries in each of the last four weeks and his offensive line is as healthy as they have been all season. According to PFF, the Eagles offensive line is actually graded as the second best run blocking line in the NFL. Couple a healthy offensive line with a favorable matchup against the Panthers, who have given up the third most fantasy points to RBs this season, and McCoy becomes a top fantasy play this week.
3) Wide Receiver Watch
Jordy Nelson (vs. Chicago Bears) – I’m hoping that recency bias will play a factor with Nelson’s ownership levels this week. The last time that we saw him, he put up a lousy 3-catch, 25-yard effort against the Saints. That was two weeks ago, as the Packers had their bye last week. The masses will hopefully have a bad taste in their mouth after that performance or overlook him since he hasn’t played in two weeks. Those are my hopes, but even if Nelson is highly owned, he’s still a terrific play this week against a banged-up Bears secondary in a game with a total of 53 points. Expect a big bounce-back effort from Nelson and don’t be afraid to pair him up with the “won’t you be my neighbor” guy (Mr. Rodgers).
Julio Jones (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Jones is another receiver that is coming off of bad game followed by a bye week. Jones only managed to muster up 4 catches for 58 yards against the Lions in London. He should have a much easier time against the Buccaneers, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. Jones hasn’t cracked the 100-yard mark in three straight weeks, but should be able to end the drought against the Bucs. Give Matt Ryan time and he’s a very good QB. Ryan should have plenty of time to throw the ball, as the Bucs have an average pass rush and the Falcons have had two weeks to prepare for this one.
Kelvin Benjamin (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – The Eagles managed to shut down Andre Johnson last week, but they couldn’t stop DeAndre Hopkins. The Eagles corners have been continuously beat all season long and there’s no reason to think that’s going to change this week against the Panthers. Benjamin is averaging 8.5 targets per game and he has scored a TD in four of his last seven games. Even with Mark Sanchez at the helm for the Eagles, the Panthers are going to be forced to air it out to keep up in what should be a high-scoring game.
4) Towering Tight Ends
Martellus Bennett (vs. Green Bay Packers) – Jimmy Graham is in play every week when he’s healthy, but I’m giving the edge to Bennett this week, as he is considerably cheaper and has the much better matchup of the two. Bennett is averaging 8.3 targets per game in a pass-happy offense that is going to have to air it out in order to keep pace with the Packers. Bennett also leads all available TEs this week with 1.8 targets per game in the red zone.
Clay Harbor (vs. Dallas Cowboys) – If you are looking for some salary cap relief at TE, look no further than Harbor. He was held without a catch last week, but he had been coming on strong in this offense in prior weeks. This week he gets to face a Cowboys defense that has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season.