NFL First Look: Week 11
Week 11 Schedule
| MATCHUP | VEGAS LINE | VEGAS TOTAL | DATE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo at Miami | MIA -5 | 42.0 | Thursday, November 13th | 8:25 PM |
| Minnesota at Chicago | CHI -3 | 47.0 | Sunday, November 16th | 1:00 PM |
| Houston at Cleveland | CLE -3 | 42.0 | Sunday, November 16th | 1:00 PM |
| Seattle at Kansas City | KC -1 | 43.0 | Sunday, November 16th | 1:00 PM |
| Atlanta at Carolina | CAR -2.5 | 47.0 | Sunday, November 16th | 1:00 PM |
| Cincinnati at New Orleans | NO -6.5 | 50.5 | Sunday, November 16th | 1:00 PM |
| Tampa Bay at Washington | WAS -7 | 45.0 | Sunday, November 16th | 1:00 PM |
| Denver at St. Louis | DEN -9.5 | 50.5 | Sunday, November 16th | 1:00 PM |
| San Francisco at NY Giants | SF -4 | 43.5 | Sunday, November 16th | 1:00 PM |
| Oakland at San Diego | SD -10 | 44.5 | Sunday, November 16th | 4:05 PM |
| Philadelphia at Green Bay | GB -6.5 | 54.0 | Sunday, November 16th | 4:25 PM |
| Detroit at Arizona | ARI -2.5 | 41.5 | Sunday, November 16th | 4:25 PM |
| New England at Indianapolis | IND -3 | 57.5 | Sunday, November 16th | 8:30 PM |
| Pittsburgh at Tennessee | PIT -5.5 | 47.0 | Monday, November 17th | 8:30 PM |
Note: Stats listed are updated through Week 9
1) Quarterback Quandary
Aaron Rodgers (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – Rodgers is coming off an incredible performance against the Bears on Sunday night. He finished with 315 yards and 6 TDs. He could have gone for more if the game wasn’t completely out of hand after the first half. This week Rodgers faces the Eagles in a game that features a total of 54 points. If there was any team that could keep up with the Packers, it would be the high-flying Eagles, who are coming off of a blowout win themselves. On the season, the Eagles have given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. The Eagles have been pretty stout against the run, which means the majority of the damage done offensively will come through the air.
Andy Dalton (vs. New Orleans Saints) – I was a little hesitant to list Dalton here at first, but a combination of his price and matchup was too good to pass up. Dalton’s price is at its low point of the season ($5,600 on DK). While he has struggled in recent weeks, I have faith that he will bounce back against the Saints. He will have A.J. Green back at full strength and may have Gio Bernard at his disposal as well. According to ProFootballFocus (PFF), the Saints are ranked 24th in pass rush, 28th in pass coverage, and 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Game flow will likely dictate a pass-heavy attack from Dalton and the Bengals.
2) Running Back Rampage
Editor’s Note: Arian Foster (groin) has been ruled out for Week 11. Alfred Blue will start in his place.
Arian Foster (vs. Cleveland Browns) – Foster “tweaked” his groin in Week 9 against the Eagles, but will have a full two weeks in-between games, as the Texans are coming off of their bye week. Foster is fully expected to play and he should come out of the bye well-rested and ready to get back at it. In his last five games, Foster is averaging 143 yards from scrimmage and 1.8 TDs per game. He should have no problems finding holes against the Browns who, despite shutting down the Bengals last week, have been below average against the run. As long as he returns to practice, he should be in for another big outing this week against the Browns.
Le’Veon Bell (vs. Tennessee Titans) – Bell is one of those players that rarely ever has a bad game. Even when he is not racking up a ton of yards from scrimmage, he’s scoring TDs and catching passes, which really helps on full PPR-sites. Bell has had back-to-back tough matchups against the Ravens and Jets and should be licking his chops for the chance to run against a much softer Titans run defense. The Titans are graded as having the seventh-worst run defense this season (PFF) and the Steelers have an above average run-blocking offensive line. Expect Bell to get back to his 100+ yards from scrimmage ways this week.
Mark Ingram (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) – We are going to have to monitor the status of both Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson this week. Even though Ingram has clearly been the best back in New Orleans, head coach Sean Payton has said that he wants to have a time split between backs when everyone is healthy. As long as we can expect a full workload from Ingram, he can be considered a top-seven RB this week. Ingram has rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games and draws a prime matchup against the Bengals, who have been shredded by the run all season. The Bengals are graded as the third worst run defense (PFF) and have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season.
3) Wide Receiver Watch
Demaryius Thomas (vs. St. Louis Rams) – When he is healthy, there is really no stopping this guy. Not only is he bigger and faster than everyone else, but he has one, if not the best QB of all time throwing him the ball. Thomas has six straight games with at least 100 receiving yards. During that stretch, he is averaging 8.7 catches for 143.5 yards per game. This week the Broncos head to St. Louis to take on the Rams in a dome. The Rams have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. The Rams may try to get pressure on Peyton Manning this week, which could mean a lot of short screens for Demaryius.
Jordy Nelson (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – Nelson was featured in the First Look last week and he responded nicely with 6 catches for 152 yards and 2 TDs, most of which came in the first half. The Eagles corners continue to get beat deep and that trend will likely continue this week against Aaron Rodgers and the talented Packers’ wideouts. The Eagles have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, and don’t be surprised if they drop even further in the rankings after this week’s matchup. Nelson is a great play on his own, or you can pair him up with Aaron Rodgers.
Kelvin Benjamin (vs. Atlanta Falcons) – As always, the salaries for the following week were released before the Monday night game. This means that the sites didn’t factor in Benjamin’s 3-catch, 70-yard, 2-TD game against the Eagles. Even though his stats came in garbage time, they count the exact same. Benjamin is only $6,600 on FD and only $4,900 on DK, both of which are too cheap. This week the Panthers take on the Falcons, who have been awful on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons are graded as the third-worst pass coverage (PFF) and Cam Newton should give Benjamin another heavy dose of targets.
4) Towering Tight Ends
Jimmy Graham (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) – This is a week where it’s Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and then everyone else. It seems like a week to pay up for TE. Of the three, I’m giving Graham the edge. Not only has he been unstoppable over the last three weeks, but he is playing at home against a defense that continues to get shredded. Graham is a target monster that should see plenty of looks against the Bengals, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season.
Jared Cook (vs. Denver Broncos) – If you are looking for some value at TE, Cook may offer just that. He is coming off of one of his best games of the season. He finished last week’s game against the Cardinals with 2 catches for 84 yards and a TD. He typically sees a steady dose of targets every week and the Rams will likely be playing from behind most of this game. It also doesn’t hurt that the Broncos are ranked 26th against opposing TEs this season.