NFL First Look: Week 12

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-11-25 19:44:50

Week 12 Schedule

I hope that everyone had a very profitable NFL weekend. It’s hard to believe that it’s already Week 12. We are hitting the home stretch. Here is who I have my eye on as we head into Week 12:

1) Quarterback Quandary

Andrew Luck (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Luck finished with over 300 yards and a couple of TDs, but it was another disappointing start for Luck against the Patriots. Once again, Belichick put together a master game plan. If you saw Jonas Gray running for 199 yards and 4 TDs, you are welcome to read my fortune any time you would like. Luck should bounce back in a big way this week as he faces the Jaguars at home. The early line has the Colts as 13.5-point favorites. When these teams met up in Week 3, Luck finished with 370 yards and 4 TDs. According to ProFootballFocus (PFF), the Jaguars have the 7th-worst pass rush and the 5th-worst pass coverage.

Jay Cutler (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Cutler may not be the most likable quarterback in the NFL, but that shouldn’t affect your thoughts of him as a fantasy football quarterback. He still has three of the best weapons at his disposal in Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, and Alshon Jeffery. Cutler is coming off of a strong outing against the Vikings in which he threw for 330 yards and 3 TDs. This week he draws an even more favorable matchup, as he faces the Buccaneers at home. According to PFF, the Buccaneers are ranked 14th in pass rush and 27th in pass coverage. Cutler should have plenty of time in the pocket to make plays down field this week.

2) Running Back Rampage

DeMarco Murray (vs. New York Giants) – Murray has yet to disappoint when he has been recommended in the NFL First Look. The Cowboys are coming off of a bye week, so Murray should have fresh legs for this week’s matchup against the Giants. It’s hard to find something bad to say about Murray this week. The Giants are graded as the 10th-worst run defense and have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Meanwhile, Murray leads the NFL in rushing yards and has an offensive line that is graded as the 4th-best run-blocking line in the league. Murray should see a heavy workload and is easily my favorite RB of the week.

Eddie Lacy (vs. Minnesota Vikings) – After a very slow start to the season, Lacy has really turned things around. His touches are still down, but over the last three games, he has 414 yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs. If you were concerned about his ability to break tackles, go watch his TD catch against the Eagles last week. Lacy is still moderately priced across the industry and he draws a solid matchup against the Vikings. When these teams met up in Week 5, Lacy finished with 132 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs. With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, defenses can’t afford to stack the box. Expect a lot of running room for Lacy again this week.

C.J. Anderson (vs. Miami Dolphins) – The Broncos’ injuries at RB just keep piling up. Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball have both already been ruled out for Week 12, which basically leaves Anderson as the feature back. He played well in last week’s loss to the Rams, as he compiled 115 yards from scrimmage. This week he squares off against a Dolphins defense that has been stingy against the run all season. They haven’t faced many QBs like Peyton Manning though. Anderson should see around 20 touches and will be a play-maker in the passing game, especially if Emmanuel Sanders and/or Julius Thomas are forced to miss this week’s game.

3) Wide Receiver Watch

T.Y. Hilton (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Hilton was stuck on Revis Island for the majority of last week’s loss to the Patriots. It was no surprise that he finished with his worst fantasy performance of the season. He should bounce back this week against the Jaguars at home. The Jaguars have little to no pass rush and have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. If that wasn’t good enough, how about the fact that Andrew Luck lost one of his best weapons in Ahmad Bradshaw? Don’t be surprised to see Hilton get 12+ targets this week. I will be pairing Hilton with Luck this week and I’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.

Brandon Marshall (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Marshall’s ownership levels were down last week, as many were scared to take him since he was dealing with an ankle injury. He rewarded those that took the risk on him by finishing with 7 catches for 90 yards and 2 TDs. This week he squares off against a Buccaneers defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. According to PFF, the Buccaneers’ secondary is graded as the 6th-worst in the NFL. Alshon Jeffery is also a great play in this spot, as I’m extremely bullish on the Bears’ passing attack this week.

Keenan Allen (vs. St. Louis Rams) – You heard it here first: Allen is going to be this week’s Michael Floyd. While Allen hasn’t been as big of a disappointment as Floyd this season, he’s certainly left much to be desired with his fantasy output. The good news is that he is still seeing a heavy dose of targets. In daily fantasy sports, we want to target players that are under-priced and players that have great matchups. Allen covers both of those this week against the Rams. According to PFF, the Rams are graded as the 7th-worst secondary in the NFL. I’m calling for AT LEAST one TD from Allen this week.

4) Towering Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (vs. Detroit Lions) – Jimmy Graham draws a tough matchup against the Ravens and it sounds like Julius Thomas could end up sitting out this week. That clears the way for Gronkowski as the top TE play of the week. Gronkowski is basically unstoppable. Over the last three weeks, Gronkowski has 325 receiving yards and 5 TDs. The Lions have a good defense, but their linebackers will not be able to defend Gronk. Expect another TD dance or two this week.

Larry Donnell (vs. Dallas Cowboys) – If you are looking for some salary cap relief at TE, Donnell once again fits the mold. He’s cheap and has a favorable matchup against the Cowboys, who have given up more fantasy points per game to opposing TEs than any other team in the NFL. When Donnell faced them in Week 7, he finished with 7 catches for 90 yards (although he did cough up two fumbles).

5) Situations to Monitor

Josh Gordon – Gordon is officially reinstated, which means he can practice with the Browns this week. He’s apparently in great shape and the Browns have no reason to ease him back into action. He is a big-play wideout that should excel as the “X” receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

Denver’s Injuries – Ronnie Hillman is out for 2-3 weeks, Montee Ball is out for 2-3 weeks, Emmanuel Sanders is in the NFL’s concussion protocol, and Julius Thomas is dealing with an ankle injury. All of these injuries could give added opportunities to players like C.J. Anderson, Wes Welker, Jacob Tamme and Andre Caldwell.

Adrian Peterson – Peterson’s grievance hearing was held and completed on Monday. On Tuesday morning it was announced he has been suspended for the rest of the 2014 season. Jerick McKinnon will continue to feature as the main back for Minnesota, with Matt Asiata working in a complementary role.

UPDATE: Peterson has been suspended without pay for the rest of the season. That didn’t take long.