NFL First Look: Week 13

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-12-02 19:47:07

Week 13 Schedule

Being grateful is a noble quality. With Thanksgiving right around the corner, I’d like to start this week’s column by saying what I’m truly thankful for. First off, I’m extremely grateful for this wonderful industry we call daily fantasy sports. It has given me the opportunity to do what I love, rather than pursuing a career in accounting (my CPA license is rather dusty these days, and I love it!). I like to think of myself as one of the few that are still around from the early days of DFS. It’s been incredible watching how far the industry has come in such a short period of time.

I also owe a big thanks to RotoGrinders. I started writing blogs on this site four or five years ago (anyone else remember the $50 DraftStreet blog promotion?). Luckily, the awesome guys here at RG saw something in me, and eventually brought me on full time. Providing daily fantasy sports content has truly been a dream come true. They say you don’t work a day in your life if you do something that you love. While I am lucky enough to do what I love, I do feel like I’ve worked a few days here and there.

Finally, I’d like to give thanks to all of the members of the RotoGrinders community. Without you, none of this would be possible. Thanks for reading our columns every day and for always keeping us on our toes. You are an extremely loyal audience that makes us want to continue to improve our content each and every day. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving this week, and hopefully a profitable one too!

1) Quarterback Quandary

Andrew Luck (vs. Washington Redskins) – To put it kindly, Luck was a disappointment last week. Some early turnovers halted the Colts offense in the first half, and once they finally got it going in the second half, the game was already well out of hand. Luck is in a great spot for a bounce back game this week against the Redskins at home. The early Vegas line has the Colts projected to score over 30 points this week. Lacking a running game, the Colts will likely air it out against the Redskins, who are graded as having the worst pass coverage in the entire NFL (PFF). Before last week, Luck had thrown for at least 300 yards and 2 TDs in five straight games. He should start a new streak this week.

Ben Roethlisberger (vs. New Orleans Saints) – Roethlisberger may have the most glaring home/road splits of any QB in the NFL (including Drew Brees). At home this season, he is averaging 361 yards and 3.6 TDs per game, good enough for a QBR of 130.5. On the road, he is averaging 244 yards and 1 TD per game. Obviously, these splits will even out a bit over time, but they are certainly worth noting. Roethlisberger should be able to add to his already gaudy stats at home this week, as he faces the Saints. According to PFF, the Saints are graded 24th in pass rush and 31st in pass coverage. If you give Big Ben time to look down field, he will make you pay.

2) Running Back Rampage

Andre Ellington (vs. Atlanta Falcons) – Ellington has had a couple of subpar fantasy outings in row, but we can’t really blame him as he was dealt the tough task of facing the Lions and the Seahawks. Ellington should get back on track this week as he faces the Falcons, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. In weekly fantasy football, I don’t like to target RBs in a time share. It’s too difficult predicting touches. Ellington is a true workhorse back that is more than capable of handling 25+ touches any given week. His offensive line doesn’t have a great run-blocking grade, but he should find plenty of holes in this shaky Falcons run defense.

Rashad Jennings (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – The first half of last week’s game against the Cowboys left many of us screaming at the TV, “Why on Earth is Rashad Jennings sitting on the sideline while Andre Williams steals his carries?!?” While it was frustrating, it appeared that the Giants were just trying to keep Jennings fresh for the second half. He finished the game with 27 touches for 120 yards from scrimmage. His 8 receptions more than salvaged his fantasy outing. Jennings should see another full workload this week against the Jaguars, who are graded as the 5th-worst run defense (PFF) in the NFL. It also doesn’t hurt that Odell Beckham Jr. is forcing defenses to play honest. You won’t see eight men in the box very often as long as Beckham is making insane catches downfield.

3) Wide Receiver Watch

T.Y. Hilton (vs. Washington Redskins) – Hilton only had 4 catches against the Jaguars, but one was a 70-yard TD catch that he dedicated to his newborn. Hilton is a terrific fantasy option because he is a great deep threat and he sees a lot of targets on shorter routes as well. This gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. This week he squares off against a Redskins defense that is ranked dead last in pass coverage this season (PFF). I typically don’t like to pair my QB with one of his WRs for cash games (fantasy correlation is better for tournaments), but I may make an exception this week. The matchup for the Luck/Hilton pairing may be too good to pass up.

Keenan Allen (vs. Baltimore Ravens) – Hey, hey, hey, lookie here! Despite losing two fumbles, Allen had the big week that I predicted in last week’s First Look column. He finished the game with 6 catches for 104 yards and a TD, with most of the damage coming in the second half. His targets have routinely been in the double-digits since Week 3. I have a feeling he’s not finished yet. He’s still the most talented WR at Philip Rivers disposal, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Ravens this week. According to PFF, the Ravens are graded 22nd in pass coverage. They are also ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs this season. His price is still more than reasonable on both FD and DK.

4) Towering Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (vs. Green Bay Packers) – It’s typically the case most weeks, but I see no reason not to pay up at TE this week. Gronkowski and Graham are both priced as mid-range WRs, yet they have as much upside as the premier WRs in the NFL. Gronkowski has been fairly quiet over the last two games, but should be a focal point of the Patriots’ offense, in what should be a shootout against the Packers. Vegas has the total set at 58 points, which is the highest total of the week. I’ll take an extra helping of GRONK and another heaping of SMASH. Gronkowski will find the end zone this week.

Jimmy Graham (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) – If you aren’t paying up for Gronkowski, you should be paying up for Graham. Graham is coming off of yet another big game on Monday night in which he scored 2 TDs. With Brandin Cooks out for the season, Graham is going to see double-digit targets every week. Sure, the Saints offense has been much better at home, but if you look at Graham’s home/road splits over the last few years, they are nearly identical. Graham should have another big week as he faces the Steelers, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to TEs this season.

5) Turkey Bowl Targets

Mark Sanchez (vs. Dallas Cowboys) – There are quite a few Turkey Day tournaments around the industry, so it wouldn’t be right if I didn’t give a few of my favorite plays for the games on Thanksgiving. Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo are both viable options, but Sanchez is considerably cheaper. Sanchez still makes some bonehead throws, but there’s no arguing his production in this offense. Over the last three games, he’s thrown for close to 1,000 yards. This week he faces a Cowboys defense, whose inefficiencies are often hidden by the fact that they aren’t on the field all that often.

DeMarco Murray (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – Murray hasn’t found the end zone in four straight games. That’s not a streak that is going to last long. While the Eagles run defense has been underrated this season, they have still ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season. Murray has the privilege of running behind a top-three run-blocking unit, and should have a big day on the ground. I’m predicting not one, not two, not three. Sorry, I got all Miami Heat on you there. I’m predicting a multi-TD game from Mr. Murray on Turkey Day.

Calvin Johnson (vs. Chicago Bears) – Johnson has been quite in back-to-back weeks, but he had a tough matchup against Patrick Peterson in Week 11. Then, he had to face Bill Belichick and the Patriots, who scheme as well any team in the NFL. As long as his ankle holds up, he should be considered the top overall wideout on Thanksgiving. He has multi-TD type of upside, and a generous matchup against the Bears, who are graded as the 6th-worst pass coverage in the NFL this season (PFF).