NFL First Look: Week 14
Week 14 Schedule
| MATCHUP | VEGAS LINE | VEGAS TOTAL | DATE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas at Chicago | DAL -3.5 | 51.5 | Thursday, December 4th | 8:25 PM |
| Houston at Jacksonville | HOU -4.5 | 42.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| Pittsburgh at Cincinnati | CIN -3.5 | 47.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| St. Louis at Washington | STL -2.5 | 44.5 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| NY Giants at Tennessee | Pick ‘Em | 45.5 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| Carolina at New Orleans | NO -9.5 | 49.5 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| NY Jets at Minnesota | MIN -4.5 | 40.5 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| Baltimore at Miami | MIA -3 | 44.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| Indianapolis at Cleveland | IND -3.5 | 50.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| Tampa Bay at Detroit | DET -9.5 | 41.5 | Sunday, December 7th | 1:00 PM |
| Buffalo at Denver | DEN -10 | 49.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 4:05 PM |
| Kansas City at Arizona | ARI -1 | 41.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 4:05 PM |
| Seattle at Philadelphia | PHI -1 | 49.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 4:25 PM |
| San Francisco at Oakland | SF -7.5 | 41.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 4:25 PM |
| New England at San Diego | NE -3.5 | 51.0 | Sunday, December 7th | 8:30 PM |
| Atlanta at Green Bay | GB -11.5 | 56.0 | Monday, December 8th | 8:30 PM |
1) Quarterback Quandary
Drew Brees (vs. Carolina Panthers) – Much like Stella, Brees has ‘got his groove back.’ Over the last two weeks, he has thrown for 677 yards and 8 TDs. He has been terrific at home throughout his career and draws a premier matchup against the Panthers. According to ProFootballFocus, the Panthers are graded as the 10th worst pass rush and the 7th worst pass coverage. The Saints are currently projected to score 29.5 points this week, which is second only to the Packers. As long as the Saints run game doesn’t completely take over, Brees could very well end up being the highest scoring QB of the week.
Russell Wilson (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – Targeting players against the Eagles is like targeting baseball players in Coors Field or basketball players against the Sixers. The pace of the game gives everyone involved a small fantasy boost (with the exception of the defenses). Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 240 yards in any of his last six games, but he has averaged 59 rushing yards per game during that stretch. This is a tough spot for the Seahawks defense, which means the offense will have to step up and play well. Look for Wilson to have another strong game on the ground and take a few deep shots against these beatable Eagles’ corners.
2) Running Back Rampage
Rashad Jennings (vs. Tennessee Titans) – One of my biggest regrets of Week 12 was talking myself out of Jennings. I had Tre Mason and C.J. Anderson on both FD and DK, but made the mistake of taking Andre Ellington over Jennings. Jennings was a true workhorse back once again, finishing with 29 touches for 94 yards and 2 TDs. He did tweak his ankle, but he’s not expected to miss any time. This week Jennings squares off against the Titans, who are currently graded as the worst run-defense in the entire NFL (PFF). They are giving up 141.5 rushing yards per game and have already given up 9 rushing TDs.
Tre Mason (vs. Washington Redskins) – Mason had his true breakout week against the Raiders. He finished with 164 yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs. The most impressive part was that he managed to do all of that on only 17 touches. The Rams have an above average run-blocking grade and Mason draws another favorable matchup this week against the Redskins. According to PFF, the Redskins are graded as the 4th worst run defense in the NFL. Mason is averaging a healthy 4.6 yards per carry this season and could very well end up seeing 20+ touches in this week’s favorable matchup.
Dan ‘Boom’ Herron (vs. Cleveland Browns) – The Colts finally have a semblance of a running game. Over the last two games, Herron has racked up 153 rushing yards on only 20 carries. He’s also added 7 receptions for 39 yards. While he is still losing roughly half of the snaps to Trent Richardson, he’s clearly the better fantasy option of the two. This week Herron squares off against the Browns, who have a below average run defense. Herron is still fairly priced ($6,400 on FD, $5,400 on DK), which offers some much needed salary cap relief. I typically hate to target RBs in a timeshare, but I may make an exception for Herron this week.
3) Wide Receiver Watch
Calvin Johnson (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Johnson looked like the best WR in the NFL last week. He man-handled the Bears with 11 catches for 146 yards and 2 TDs. He became the fastest WR in NFL history to reach 10,000 yards. When he’s healthy, he’s right up there with Demaryius Thomas as the top receiver in the game. This week he draws a terrific matchup against the Buccaneers, who are graded as having the 10th worst pass coverage this season (PFF). The Buccaneers have also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WRs. This is also one of the few games where weather will not be a concern, as it will be played indoors at Ford Field.
Josh Gordon (vs. Indianapolis Colts) – This pick comes with a caveat, which is that Vontae Davis is forced to sit out this week. Davis suffered a concussion in last week’s win over the Redskins and is now in the league’s concussion protocol. If Davis is forced to sit, the Colts won’t have anyone that will be able to match up with Gordon. In his first two games back from suspension, Gordon has caught 15 passes for 195 yards. While he has yet to find the endzone, he’s seen a whopping 29 targets. The Browns are making an effort to force feed him the ball and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks a long one. As long as Davis is out, I will have a heavy dose of Gordon this week, regardless of who is throwing him the ball.
Kenny Stills (vs. Carolina Panthers) – Stills has emerged as the number one wideout with Brandin Cooks out of the lineup. Over his last two games, he has 13 catches for 260 yards and a TD. His snap count last week (45%) was a bit concerning, but I’ll chalk it up to an aberration as he played on 70% of the snaps in Week 12. Stills remains the Saints’ best deep threat and is now seeing plenty of targets on shorter routes as well. His price is still reasonable ($6,400 on FD, $6,000 on DK) and he draws a terrific matchup against the Panthers, who are graded as having the 7th worst pass coverage in the NFL (PFF).
4) Towering Tight Ends
Antonio Gates (vs. New England Patriots) – Apparently, it was not the right week to pay up for TE last week. While Gronkowski had a decent day yardage wise, he failed to find the endzone. Meanwhile, Jimmy Graham was held without a single catch. In fact, he didn’t see a single target. This week looks like a good time to target the mid-range TEs and for me that starts with Mr. Gates. Gates is coming off of a strong outing against the Ravens. This week he faces a Patriots defense that is ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs this season.
Travis Kelce (vs. Arizona Cardinals) – The Cardinals struggled to defend TEs last season, and they have struggled to defend TEs this season. They are currently ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing TEs. Even with Anthony Fasano back in the lineup, Kelce played on 82% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps last week. He’s much more talented than his production would indicate, but there is a breakout week coming. With the Cardinals having one of the better run defenses in the NFL, Kelce could be a big part of this week’s game plan.