NFL First Look: Week 15

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-12-16 15:23:23

Week 15 Schedule

1) Quarterback Quandary

Matt Ryan (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) – Ryan is coming off of two of his stronger games of the season. He threw for 361 yards and 2 TDs against the Cardinals in Week 13 and backed it up with 375 yards and 4 TDs against the Packers in Week 14. This week the Falcons head back home to take on the Steelers in a game that has a total of 51 points. Ryan has had much better numbers at home throughout his career. Not only does he get to play in front of his home crowd, but he gets to play in a dome where weather isn’t a factor. Ryan should be in for another strong outing this week as he is facing a Steelers defense that is graded as having the 6th worst pass coverage in the NFL this season (PFF). With little semblance of a running game, the Falcons will look to attack the Steelers through the air.

Mark Sanchez (vs. Dallas Cowboys) – This is a week where you can save at quarterback. There are a few cheaper options in favorable matchups. One of which is Mark Sanchez. After getting shut down by the Seahawks last week, Chip Kelly and the Eagles offense have to be licking their chops to get on the field to face the Cowboys. When these two teams met on Thanksgiving, the Eagles racked up 464 yards from scrimmage. Sanchez had a very productive outing with 235 yards and 2 total TDs. He could have had a much bigger day, but the game was well out of hand early. Due to recency bias, most people will be shy when it comes to rostering Eagles players this week, but not me. The Cowboys are graded 21st in pass coverage this season and have allowed the 18th most fantasy points to opposing QBs.

2) Running Back Rampage

Matt Forte (vs. New Orleans Saints) – Forte is already the best receiving running back in the NFL. As crazy as it sounds, his targets may actually go up with Brandon Marshall done for the season. It’s early in the week, but I have Forte ranked higher than Le’Veon Bell, Arian Foster, and DeMarco Murray. The combination of matchup and opportunity is too good to pass up. This week he gets to face a Saints defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. The Saints are also a bottom ten run defense and a bottom five pass defense. Forte should easily crack 100 yards from scrimmage with a lot of that damage coming through the air.

Justin Forsett (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Forsett has been extremely reliable in weekly fantasy football. He has scored at least 12 fantasy points (FD scoring) in each of his last six games. He should be able to keep the streak alive this week as the Jaguars head to town. Vegas has the Ravens listed as 13.5-point favorites which means we could see a very heavy dose of Forsett this week. Over the last four weeks, Forsett is averaging 21.2 touches per game. He has also scored five TDs during that stretch. He draws a terrific matchup against the Jaguars, who are graded as having the 6th worst run defense in the NFL (PFF). It also doesn’t hurt that Forsett’s offensive line has the best run-blocking grade in the NFL (PFF).

Jonathan Stewart (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – This pick somewhat hinges on the health of DeAngelo Williams. Obviously, Stewart would see the lion’s share of carries this week if Williams has to sit out again, but he would still make an interesting play even if Williams does end up playing. Stewart is coming off of one of the best games in his career. He rushed for 155 yards and a TD against the Saints. This week he draws an equally juicy matchup against the Buccaneers, who are graded as having the 2nd worst run defense in the NFL this season (PFF). Stewart’s price on FD ($6,700) has come way up, but he’s still very affordable on DK ($5,000).

3) Wide Receiver Watch

Odell Beckham Jr. (vs. Washington Redskins) – The Giants are force feeding Beckham the ball. Last week against the Jaguars, he finished with 11 catches (15 targets) for 130 yards and a TD. He also had a running play called for him and he even got to attempt a pass. The Giants are not going to make the playoffs, so they might as well show off their incredible new weapon. This week the Giants square off against the Redskins, who have been atrocious on defense this season. They are graded as having the worst pass coverage in the entire NFL (PFF) and they have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Manning and Becham should be able to carve up this shaky Redskins secondary.

Alshon Jeffery (vs. New Orleans Saints) – The absence of Brandon Marshall gives Jeffery the biggest fantasy boost of anyone on the Bears. Instead of being stuck in a 1A-1B situation with Marshall, Jeffery is now the clear cut number one wideout in Chicago. Jeffery wasted no time taking advantage of Marshall’s absence in the Bears last game, as he finished with 6 catches for 95 yards against the Cowboys. This week he draws arguably the best matchup on the board. On the season, the Saints are graded as having the 6th worst pass rush and the 2nd worst pass coverage this season. While he may lock horns with Keenan Lewis, Lewis hasn’t been the same corner since injuring his knee.

Kenny Stills (vs. Chicago Bears) – I’m going back to the well on this one. I chalk up his bad outing last week to a very rare game from the Saints. Their offense couldn’t get anything going all game long and they got crushed by the Panthers at home. They should have a much better performance offensively against the Bears, who own one of the worst defenses in the NFL. On the season, the Bears are graded as having the 3rd worst pass coverage. They have also given up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Stills should lead all Saints’ wideouts in targets this week.

4) Towering Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett (vs. New Orleans Saints) – It’s hard to believe I have three Bears listed in my column, but here we are. Brandon Marshall was averaging close to double-digit targets this season and those are going to get eaten up by the likes of Forte, Jeffery, and Bennett. All three should see a nice fantasy boost with Marshall out. All three are also in play this week against the Saints, who as I’ve mentioned above, have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. I won’t have all three Bears on the same lineup, but I will have a lot of exposure to each of the three and am not against using two of them in my main cash game lineup.

Delanie Walker (vs. New York Jets) – Walker was one of the many fantasy disappointments last week. Mettenberger played terribly and the Titans offense never really got going. It sounds like the Titans will turn to Jake Locker this week, which is actually great news for Walker, as the two have some great chemistry. If you were burned by Walker last week, you have to forgive and forget because he draws a terrific matchup against the Jets, who have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season.

Feel free to comment below to share who you like this week and why!