NFL First Look: Week 16

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-12-23 18:05:09

1) Quarterback Quandary

Drew Brees (vs. Atlanta Falcons) – Brees bounced back with another nice outing on the road as he threw for 375 yards and 3 touchdowns in a big road win over the Bears. The Saints now control their own destiny and have a must-win game this week at home against the Falcons. Not only is Brees playing at home, but he draws a premium matchup, as the Falcons have one of the worst pass defenses in the entire NFL. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Falcons are graded out as having the 3rd worst pass rush and the 2nd worst pass coverage. Vegas has the Saints listed with a team total of 31.3 points, which is the highest of any team on the schedule. In a huge division game, I fully expect the Saints to lean heavily on Brees and the passing game.

Matthew Stafford (vs. Chicago Bears) – Stafford was awfully quiet in a win over the Vikings on Sunday. He threw for only 153 yards and a touchdown – and cost me a trip to the championship in my one and only season-long fantasy football league. Now that I’m out of the playoffs, he should be able to bounce back nicely in a favorable matchup against the Bears. According to PFF, the Bears are graded out as having the 14th worst pass rush and the 4th worst pass coverage. They have also given up more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL. When these two teams met up on Thanksgiving, Stafford threw for 390 yards and 2 touchdowns. We’ve seen the Bears defense get shredded week after week and there is nothing to suggest that anything will change in Week 16.

2) Running Back Rampage

Eddie Lacy (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Remember when everyone was calling Lacy a bust earlier in the season? That seems like ages ago. Lacy has looked much like the Lacy of 2013, averaging 126 yards from scrimmage and 1.1 touchdowns per game over his last six outings. According to PFF, Lacy is ranked 2nd in the NFL in their “Elusiveness Rating,” which measures a running back’s success beyond the point of being helped by his blockers. He is averaging 2.65 yards per attempts after contact. This week’s matchup against the Buccaneers is shaping up to be a field day for Lacy. On the season, the Buccaneers have the 2nd worst run defense (PFF) and have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Look for the Packers to get back on track this week, after losing to the Bills on the road.

C.J. Anderson (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) – Anderson has been the main man in Denver over the last month or so. It’s looking like he’s going to remain the feature back for Denver down the stretch, as Montee Ball was place on season-ending injured reserve. While Ronnie Hillman and Juwan Thompson figure to steal some carries, Anderson provides that smash-mouth running style that the Broncos are looking for. Over his last six games, he is averaging 135 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown per game. This week the Broncos head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a very important game for both teams. According to PFF, the Bengals are graded as having the 10th worst run defense this season. They have also given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Tre Mason (vs. New York Giants) – Mason has been off of the fantasy radar for a couple weeks now, as he has had awful matchups against the Redskins and the Cardinals. He was bottled up by both teams, but he should find some running lanes this week, as the Rams host the Giants. On the season, Mason is averaging a healthy 4.3 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Giants are giving up 4.9 yards per carry to their opponents. The Giants are a below-average run defense by any metric and the Rams figure to be playing this game from ahead, which is typically good news for the running game. Mason is priced as a RB2, but has the upside of a RB1 in this week’s matchup.

3) Wide Receiver Watch

Calvin Johnson (vs. Chicago Bears) – Johnson and the Lions offense was bottled up last week against the Vikings. Xavier Rhodes shadowed Johnson and created problems with his physical press near the line of scrimmage. As I mentioned above with Stafford, I fully expect the Lions passing game to bounce back in a big way this week against the Bears. When these two teams met up on Thanksgiving, Johnson torched them with 11 catches for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bears generate little pass rush and put up little to no fight in their secondary. Look for Johnson to have a monster Week 16 performance in a must-win game against the Bears.

Mike Evans (vs. Green Bay Packers) – It’s getting to the point of the season where you either want to target players that are playing in meaningful games, or young players that their coaches are trying to develop. Evans falls in the second category. He is also looking for a strong finish to somehow pass Odell Beckham Jr. as the offensive rookie of the year. This week the Bucs host the Packers. While this isn’t an ideal matchup on paper, the Bucs will likely be playing from behind most of the day. In case you were wondering, garbage time points are worth just as much as fantasy points scored in close games. Evans is a candidate to rack up the garbage time production this week. He has caught nine touchdowns over his last seven games.

Josh Gordon (vs. Carolina Panthers) – This is the time to buy low on Gordon. After the Manziel hype was at an all-time high last week, he was bottled up by the Bengals defense (who has been playing much better recently). This week the Browns play a much weaker defense in the Panthers and I’m expecting a much better performance out of Johnny Football. Gordon is extremely cheap on both FD ($7,500) and DK ($6,400). If you look at the box score from last week, the Browns only attempted 18 passes, 4 of which were thrown Gordon’s way. Both of those numbers should increase drastically this week against the Panthers, who have a below average pass rush and a below average secondary.

4) Towering Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett (vs. Detroit Lions) – Jimmy Graham deserves consideration here as well, but Bennett is much cheaper and has arguably the same upside as Graham. Bennett had 4 catches for 36 yards last week against the Saints, but that was a game where the Bears offense couldn’t get anything going until late in the second half. The previous two weeks, Bennett had a combined 20 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown. With Brandon Marshall out for the season, Bennett should see a healthy dose of targets this week against the Lions.

Jason Witten (vs. Indianapolis Colts) – Witten is coming off of one of his best fantasy performances of the season. He finished with 7 catches for 69 yards, including some huge receptions on third down that kept the chains moving. This week the Cowboys host the Colts in what is expected to be a shootout. Witten also draws a fantasy-friendly matchup, as the Colts have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.