NFL First Look: Week 17

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-12-29 16:58:09

To read the playoff scenarios for Week 17, click here

It’s hard to believe that it’s already the last week of the regular season. Thanks to all of the loyal readers of this column. Let’s end the season with a bang!

1) Quarterback Quandary

Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) – Big Ben and the Steelers host the Bengals in a game that will decide the AFC North. We’ve reached the point of the season where it’s important to target players on teams with something to play for. That certainly applies to the Steelers this week. Roethlisberger has been outstanding at home this season, averaging 350 yards and 3 touchdowns per game. Coincidentally, Roethlisberger threw for exactly 350 yards and 3 touchdowns the first time he faced the Bengals this season. While the Bengals have been playing better defense recently, they are still graded as having the worst pass coverage in the NFL (PFF). We all know what happens when you give the Steelers wideouts time to get open.

Cam Newton (vs. Atlanta Falcons) – Newton is another quarterback playing for a division title this week. The winner of the Falcons/Panthers game will win the NFC South and host a first-round playoff game. The loser will not even come close to making the playoffs. Despite being questionable ahead of last week’s game against the Browns, Newton looked just fine on the field, throwing for 201 yards and adding 63 yards on the ground. That was against a good Browns pass defense. This week he should tee off against the Falcons, who are graded as having the fourth worst pass rush and the third worst pass coverage this season (PFF). In a win or go home game, expect the Panthers to lean heavily on their dual-threat quarterback. Newton also sees a small fantasy boost with this game being played indoors.

2) Running Back Rampage

Le’Veon Bell (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) – Bell has been the best running back in fantasy football over the last five weeks. During that stretch, he has averaged 181 yards from scrimmage per game. He has also scored at least one touchdown in all five outings. One of those games was against the Bengals, who he torched for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns. While it’s hard to expect him to have similar success against them this week, he’s the top running back heading into Week 17. The Bengals have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and there are very few backs that are as heavily involved in the passing game as Bell is. This is one of the rare occasions where I may target a quarterback and a running back from the same team in the same lineup.

C.J. Anderson (vs. Oakland Raiders) – Anderson may not have the gaudy numbers that Bell does, but he’s been a top five running back over the last five weeks. During that stretch, he is averaging 134 yards from scrimmage and 1.2 touchdowns per game. He has also averaged an impressive 28.6 touches per game during that stretch. It appears that the Broncos are going to lean heavily on him the rest of the way in hopes that a power running game will help them win on the road. The Broncos need to win this week, as they will only clinch a first-round bye with a win or a Bengals loss. Obviously, the Bengals outcome won’t be decided until Sunday night, which means the Broncos will treat this as a must-win game. I should also mention that Anderson is facing the Raiders, who have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.

Justin Forsett (vs. Cleveland Browns) – Forsett has had a rough two-game stretch. After only mustering up 47 yards from scrimmage against the Jaguars in Week 15, he found even less success against the Texans in Week 16. Game flow really dictated his workload last week and I think we could see that right itself this week. The Ravens are nine point favorites against the Browns, who have a below average run defense by most metrics. The Ravens need a win and a Chargers loss in order to make the playoffs. We can fully expect them to keep the ball out of Joe Flacco’s hands as often as possible, especially considering the fact that the Ravens have one of the best run-blocking lines in the entire NFL. This is a great chance to buy low on Forsett in a game that should be won in the trenches.

3) Wide Receiver Watch

Julio Jones (vs. Carolina Panthers) – Jones didn’t practice for two weeks, yet he was still able to suit up last week against the Saints in what was a season-saving win. While he didn’t find the end zone, he caught 7 passes for 107 yards. He came out of the game without any further injury and the Falcons fully expect to have him in a winner-take-all game against the Panthers this week. This game features a total of 47.5 points, but with the state of these two defenses, I expect this one to be a shootout. The Falcons have had little semblance of a running game all season and will likely pin their playoff hopes on the arm of Matt Ryan.

Andre Johnson (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – I mentioned in one of my articles last week that Case Keenum absolutely loves to throw the ball to Andre Johnson. He proved that again last week by targeting him 13 times against the Ravens. Johnson finished with a respectable 6 catches for 65 yards. His price is still more than affordable on both FD ($6,300) and DK ($4,900). He should see another heavy dose of targets this week against a Jaguars defense that is graded as having the third worst pass coverage in the entire NFL (PFF). Johnson has only scored two touchdowns this season, but I have a sneaky suspicion that he catches number three this week against the Jaguars.

Charles Johnson (vs. Chicago Bears) – Johnson is coming off of a subpar fantasy outing against the Dolphins. He finished with only 3 catches for 38 yards, which was his lowest output in the last six weeks. He did injure his hamstring in the game, but was able to play through it. He’s fully expected to play this week against the Bears, in what is a very fantasy-friendly matchup. The Bears are graded as having the fifth worst pass coverage (PFF) and they have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Johnson is cheap this week and offers terrific upside for the price.

4) Towering Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – It didn’t take long for me to go back to the well with Graham. He played well last week with 6 catches for 53 yards and a touchdown. He was inches away from another touchdown in a play that may have ended up costing the Saints the game. Graham saw ten targets last week and should be in for a big fantasy outing if he can see that many targets again this week. The Buccaneers are ranked 19th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season.

Delanie Walker (vs. Indianapolis Colts) – Walker is my favorite tight end this week if I’m not looking to spend up. He is affordable across the industry and has seen a healthy dose of targets all season long. This week he matches up against the Colts, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. The Colts don’t really have anything to play for this week, which may lead to Walker playing against the Colts’ backups for a large portion of the game.