NFL First Look: Week 2
NFL First Look provides you with a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for next week’s NFL matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek Farnsworth aka Notorious (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each Tuesday night, Notorious will give you his initial thoughts on the matchups for the upcoming week and who he is looking to target.
Week 2 NFL Schedule
| MATCHUP | VEGAS LINE | DATE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh at Baltimore | BAL -3 | Thursday, September 11th | 8:25 PM |
| Jacksonville at Washington | WAS -6 | Sunday, September 14th | 1:00 PM |
| Miami at Buffalo | MIA -1 | Sunday, September 14th | 1:00 PM |
| Dallas at Tennessee | TEN -3.5 | Sunday, September 14th | 1:00 PM |
| Arizona at NY Giants | ARI -1.5 | Sunday, September 14th | 1:00 PM |
| New England at Minnesota | NE -3 | Sunday, September 14th | 1:00 PM |
| New Orleans at Cleveland | NO -6.5 | Sunday, September 14th | 1:00 PM |
| Atlanta at Cincinnati | CIN -5 | Sunday, September 14th | 1:00 PM |
| Detroit at Carolina | CAR -3 | Sunday, September 14th | 1:00 PM |
| St. Louis at Tampa Bay | TB -5 | Sunday, September 14th | 4:05 PM |
| Seattle at San Diego | SEA -5.5 | Sunday, September 14th | 4:05 PM |
| Houston at Oakland | HOU -3 | Sunday, September 14th | 4:25 PM |
| NY Jets at Green Bay | GB -8 | Sunday, September 14th | 4:25 PM |
| Kansas City at Denver | DEN -13 | Sunday, September 14th | 4:25 PM |
| Chicago at San Francisco | SF -7 | Sunday, September 14th | 8:30 PM |
| Philadelphia at Indianapolis | IND -3 | Monday, September 15th | 8:30 PM |
What’s up Grinders. First off, I’d like to thank RotoGrinders for putting on one heck of a party in Las Vegas for the kickoff of the NFL season. The events they put on were incredible and it was really great to meet so many great people in the industry. If you want a recap of the trip, ducciesuccumbs wrote a great article so make sure to check it out. As far as Week 1 from a fantasy perspective, it was a good, but not great week for myself. My cash game lineups finished in the top 1/3 of double-ups, but a last minute switch from Julius Thomas to Jordan Cameron kept me from cashing anything big. Overall though, it was a solid start and we will look to keep it going in Week 2!
1) Running Back Rampage
Matt Forte (vs. San Francisco 49ers) – In case you haven’t heard, this isn’t your 2013 49ers defense. They are missing arguably their two best defensive players in NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith. Last week the Cowboys shot themselves in the foot time and time again despite being able to move the ball at will. The Cowboys racked up 382 yards from scrimmage with 127 of those coming on the ground. DeMarco Murray was a top 5 RB against the Niners D last week and I’m expecting a similar result for Forte this week. Forte is coming off of a big Week 1 performance against the Bills who have a very tough front-4. Forte only rushed 17 times, but caught 8 balls out of the backfield for a total of 25 touches and 169 total yards.
Arian Foster (vs. Oakland Raiders) – Prior to Week 1, the Texans declared Foster healthier than he had been in a long time. Any concern of a possible time split was quickly put to rest as Jonathan Grimes and Alfred Blue combined for 2 touches while Foster saw 29 touches against the Redskins. He’s clearly their workhorse back and even though he only averaged 3.7 YPC, he ran with power and confidence which was good to see. While this offense clearly needs some work, there are few every down RB’s left in the NFL and you can take Foster at an extreme discount this week. Not only that, but he draws a terrific matchup against a Raiders defense that gave up a league-high 212 rushing yards in Week 1.
2) Top QB/WR/TE Handcuffs
Andrew Luck / Reggie Wayne / T.Y. Hilton – We’ve heard all preseason that this is Andrew Luck’s year to shine. While the Colts fell short on the comeback trail against the Broncos, Luck did not disappoint his fantasy owners. He finished with 389 yards from scrimmage and 3 TD’s. This week he’ll look to post even better numbers as he is facing the Philadelphia Eagles that Chip Kelly’s fast-paced offense. This game should be a shootout and with little to no run game, expect another big outing from Luck. This week I will be pairing him with Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. In Week 1 against the Broncos, Wayne was targeted 13 times and Hilton was targeted 11 times.
Andy Dalton / A.J. Green / Jermaine Gresham – The Bengals are always a sneaky play in tournaments. Whether it’s the red hair or the fact that he plays on the Bengals, people seem to forget about Andy Dalton each week. Dalton threw for 301 yards in their opener against the Ravens and is primed for an even better fantasy outing this week against the Atlanta Falcons at home. The Falcons gave up 333 passing yards to Drew Brees last week and if it weren’t for 3 Saints rushing TD’s, Brees would have easily been a top-5 fantasy QB. Pair Dalton up with his favorite WR A.J. Green as well as his TE Jermaine Gresham. The Bengals will be without both Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert this week which should really open up targets for both Green and Gresham.
3) Target Watch
This section is all about targets in the passing game. It can include players to watch for that are seeing a lot of targets, players to avoid, or anything else that I feel pertinent for the week ahead.
Brandon Marshall vs. Alshon Jeffery – Last season we saw a pretty even distribution of targets between these two with McCown at the helm, but Jay Cutler loves Brandon Marshall. That rang true once again in Week 1 as Marshall saw 12 targets (8 catches for 81 yards) while Jeffery only saw 6 targets (5 catches for 71 yards). I still think Jeffery is going to be a fantasy beast this season, but until we see a more even distribution, Marshall looks like the better play of the two for cash games.
Giovani Bernard – It’s not often when a RB see double-digit targets in the passing game, so when it happens, it’s certainly worth noting. Giovani Bernard saw 10 targets from Andy Dalton last week against the Ravens and hauled in 6 of those for 62 yards. With Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert both out this week, don’t be surprised to see Dalton utilize his talented RB once again.
Dennis Pitta – Pitta saw 15 targets last week against the Bengals which led all TE’s. The next highest TE saw 11 targets. Flacco leaned on Pitta early and often and it looks like that could be a trend that we will see throughout the season. Pitta’s price is likely to skyrocket here soon, so targeting him against the Steelers this week may be the last time to take him at a reasonable price.
4) Shootout of the Week
Last week’s shootout ended up almost exactly as Vegas had predicted. The Broncos won by 7 while both teams combined to score 55 points. This week’s featured shootout is between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Indianapolis Colts. Both of these teams have offenses that can put up points in a hurry. This game features the highest total of the week at 53.5 points. The Colts are only favored by 3 and if there was a single game that I had to choose to stack this week, this would be it.
5) Noto’s Bold Prediction
Robert Griffin III will be a top-7 fantasy QB this week. I was tempted to predict a top-5 performance, but I want to start off on the right foot and top-5 may be a stretch. Griffin looked awful in last week’s loss to the Texans. He only averaged 3.7 yards per completion which was the 2nd lowest in any game in his entire career. The good news for RGIII is that J.J. Watt will no longer haunt his nightmares. This week he draws a much more favorable matchup against a suspect Jacksonville secondary. While the Jaguars defense is better this season, they are still the Jags (coming from a Jags fan). We all saw what the Eagles offense was able to do in the 2nd half of their Week 1 matchup. Look for the Redskins to open up the playbook this week and allow RGIII to make more plays outside of the pocket.