NFL First Look: Week 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-21 17:02:09

NFL First Look provides you with a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for this week’s NFL matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek Farnsworth aka Notorious (#7 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each Tuesday night, Notorious will give you his initial thoughts on the matchups for the upcoming week and who he is looking to target.

Week 3 NFL Schedule

What a crazy week! It wasn’t exactly the Sunday that the DFS industry needed. As soon as FanDuel’s site went down on Sunday morning, it seemed as if the DFS world was going to burst into flames. I found myself constantly refreshing the thread in the RG forums just to find out what was going on. While there have been a ton of opinions thrown around about how they should have handled the whole ordeal (I have my own), at the end of the day, all that matters is what they do to fix the user experience moving forward. As if the FanDuel situation wasn’t enough, NFL Sunday was filled with injuries to some key players which just topped off a bad week in general. The good news is that this is DAILY fantasy sports and we get to draft a new team each week. So with that said, on to Week 3!

1) Running Back Rampage

Arian Foster – We were a little hit and miss with the RB picks last week. Foster had a huge game against the Raiders, but Matt Forte was a disappointment against the Niners. I’m going back to the well this week with Foster. Not only does Foster have 14 more carries than anybody in the AFC, but he leads all RB’s with 29.5 touches per game this season. The Texans can’t expect to keep him upright with that many touches per game, but until they limit his workload, he is going to find his way into many of my fantasy lineups. Foster draws a favorable matchup against the Giants who allowed 124 yards on 5.0 YPC against the Cardinals last week.
DeMarco Murray – The Cowboys offense still seems to be a work in process, but they certainly have the ground game running at full speed. After rushing for 118 yards in Week 1 against the Niners, Murray ran all over the Titans in Week 2 with 167 yards rushing on 29 carries. I’m not sure if the Cowboys offensive coordinator knows this or not, but the Cowboys are now 12-1 in games where Murray has received at least 20 carries. I love to target RB’s that get plenty of touches and Murray is averaging the 2nd most touches per game of any RB at 27.5. This week he facing a Rams defense that has already allowed four rushing touchdowns. The Rams have also given up the 3rd most rushing yards this season. It should be another big day from scrimmage for #29 on the Cowboys.

2) Top QB/WR/TE Handcuffs

Matthew Stafford / Calvin Johnson / Golden Tate – I was very temped to go back to the Aaron Rodgers / Jordy Nelson combination, but it may be a bad week to target them as their prices across the industry have increased dramatically after their big performance in Week 2. Instead, take a look at their opponent across the field. Matthew Stafford has always been a fantasy QB with a high ceiling and he has been significantly better at home. In 2013, he averaged 50 more yards per game at the fast track in Detroit than he did on the road. This game has one of the highest totals of the week and the Packers allowed the 8th most FP’s to opposing quarterbacks in 2013. After a quiet week against the Panthers, look for the Lions high-flying offense to get back on track this week.
Nick Foles / Jeremy Maclin / Zach Ertz – There has been a lot of talk about Foles’ poor play through the first two weeks, but he’s thrown for 653 yards and 3 TD’s. He does have two interceptions, but he’s led his team to two comeback victories. Foles also still plays in a Chip Kelly offense that is all about scoring points as quickly as possible. This could be a perfect week to target Foles and his receiving options in tournaments as they will likely go overlooked by the masses. The Eagles are facing a Redskins defense that has looked good against the pass this season, but we can’t give them too much credit as they have faced two subpar QB’s in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chad Henne. Handcuff Foles with Zach Ertz and Jeremy Maclin this week and maybe even throw Darren Sproles in the mix as well.

3) Target Watch

This section is all about targets in the passing game. It can include players to watch for that are seeing a lot of targets, players to avoid, or anything else that I feel pertinent for the week ahead.

T.Y. Hilton – I always like to take a look at each team’s target distribution each week to get an idea of the potential opportunities for players moving forward. One name that stands out in the number of targets through the first two games is T.Y. Hilton. He is tied for the 4th most targets of any WR this season with 22. Luck has thrown his way 11 times in each of the first two games. With the Jaguars struggling to cover anyone on the field, Hilton is a great upside play this week.
Giovani Bernard – Bernard is coming off of a monster game against the Falcons. In addition to 90 yards on the ground, he caught 5 passes for an additional 76 yards through the air. On the season, he has already seen 16 targets in the passing game which is more than most WR’s in the league. He is a solid play again this week against the Titans, especially on full PPR sites such as DraftKings.
Niles Paul – This pick hinges on the health of Jordan Reed, but if Reed is out again, Paul could be an excellent play at TE. With Reed out and Kirk Cousins at the helm, he saw 14 targets in Week 2. He ended the day with 8 catches for 99 yards and a TD. Keep your eye on Reed’s status throughout the week and plug in Paul if he is ruled out.

4) Injury Bug: Who Stands to Gain from Week 2’s Injuries?

Knile Davis – Injuries play a huge role in daily fantasy. Not only do they impact the current week, but they impact the production for players the next week as well. Jamaal Charles is dealing with a high ankle sprain and it sounds like he is questionable at best for this week’s game against the Dolphins. If Charles has to sit out, Davis will see a huge boost in production. He filled in admirably for Charles last week with 79 rushing yards and 2 TD’s against the Broncos.
Kirk Cousins – Cousins may be the #1 pickup on the waiver wire in season long leagues. Robert Griffin will likely be out for an extended period of time and Cousins should have no problem stepping in and running this offense. Cousins played well against the Jaguars last week and draws a terrific matchup against the Eagles in what should be a very high scoring game.
Lamar Miller – Knowshon Moreno was one of the many players to get injured in Week 2. He has already been ruled out for Week 3 which clears the way for Miller to be the workhorse running back in Miami. He’s expected to see a nice boost in touches and draws a nice matchup against the Chiefs who have allowed 250 rushing yards on 4.4 YPC this season.

5) Noto’s Bold Prediction

Sammy Watkins will have a repeat performance in Week 3 – The bold prediction got off to a rotten start last week. I predicted Robert Griffin III to be a top-7 fantasy QB and he ended up dislocating his ankle early in the first half. You can never predict injuries in sports, but let’s hope the Bold Prediction isn’t anything like the Madden curse. We will look to get back on track this week with rookie Sammy Watkins. He had a breakout performance last week against the Dolphins with 8 catches for 117 yards and a TD. He should be able to keep the party rolling this week with a very favorable matchup against a weak Chargers secondary that allowed the 3rd most catches (222) and yards (3,050) to opposing WR’s last year. I’m predicting another 100+ yard day from Watkins with his 2nd career TD.