NFL First Look: Week 6
Huge congrats to SamENole for taking home the $1 million first place prize in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker event. While I didn’t win the million, my cash-game lineup cashed in double-ups, which made it a profitable week overall, so I can’t complain. Luckily, we all get another shot at the million this weekend, as DraftKings is hosting yet another Millionaire Maker event. They are making two millionaires in two weeks, so make sure to take your shot at a cool million for a buy-in of only $27.
Week 6 Schedule
| MATCHUP | VEGAS LINE | VEGAS TOTAL | DATE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis at Houston | IND -3 | 46.0 | Thursday, October 9th | 8:25 PM |
| Jacksonville at Tennessee | TEN -6 | 44.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 1:00 PM |
| Baltimore at Tampa Bay | BAL -3 | 43.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 1:00 PM |
| Denver at NY Jets | DEN -8.5 | 47.5 | Sunday, October 12th | 1:00 PM |
| Detroit at Minnesota | DET -2 | 44.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 1:00 PM |
| New England at Buffalo | NE -3 | 45.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 1:00 PM |
| Carolina at Cincinnati | CIN -7 | 45.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 1:00 PM |
| Pittsburgh at Cleveland | CLE -2 | 47.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 1:00 PM |
| Green Bay at Miami | GB -3 | 49.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 1:00 PM |
| San Diego at Oakland | SD -7 | 43.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 4:05 PM |
| Chicago at Atlanta | ATL -3 | 53.5 | Sunday, October 12th | 4:25 PM |
| Dallas at Seattle | SEA -8.5 | 47.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 4:25 PM |
| Washington at Arizona | Not Set | Not Set | Sunday, October 12th | 4:25 PM |
| NY Giants at Philadelphia | PHI -2.5 | 50.0 | Sunday, October 12th | 8:30 PM |
| San Francisco at St. Louis | SF -3.5 | 43.5 | Monday, October 13th | 8:30 PM |
1) Running Back Rampage
Matt Forte (vs. Atlanta Falcons) – It’s going to be hard to avoid taking Forte this week. He’s coming off of a monster game against the Panthers in which he racked up 166 yards from scrimmage. He also added 12 receptions and managed to find the end zone for the first time this season. Forte leads all running backs (it’s not even close) with 40 targets through the air. His involvement in the passing game really boosts his fantasy value on full PPR scoring sites such as DraftKings. This week he squares off against a Falcons defense that has given up 147 yards per game on the ground (31st in the NFL) and 10 rushing touchdowns (worst in the NFL).
Le’Veon Bell (vs. Cleveland Browns) – Bell has yet to have a bad fantasy outing this season. He has scored at least 15.7 fantasy points on DraftKings in each of the first five games. He’s also topped 100 yards per scrimmage in every game. Bell is ranked third among running backs in touches per game at 22.2, and he draws a favorable matchup against the Browns who he has already torched this season. In Week 1 against the Browns, Bell racked up 197 yards from scrimmage and also found the end zone. The Browns have struggled against the run all season and the Steelers should employ a run-heavy game plan in a very important AFC North battle.
2) Quarterback Quandary
Matt Ryan (vs. Chicago Bears) – The Falcons offensive line is a mess, but that hasn’t stopped Ryan from being one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the league. Through the first five games, only Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers have more fantasy points. This week the Falcons take on a hobbled Bears defense in a game that features the highest total of the week. Better yet, they are facing them at home in the Georgia Dome. Since the start of 2013, Ryan has averaged over 300 yards and close to two touchdowns per game at home. He should be able to carve up this secondary, and he makes for a nice pairing with Julio Jones and/or Roddy White.
Russell Wilson (vs. Dallas Cowboys) – Wilson is coming off of a big Monday night performance against the Redskins in which he topped 320 yards from scrimmage with three touchdowns. He’s really coming into his own this season and now draws a terrific matchup against the Cowboys at home. The Cowboys have had a below average pass defense thus far, as they have allowed 248 yards per game, which is ranked 23rd in the NFL. Wilson has always been a good fantasy play at home and should make for one of the better cash game plays thanks to an extremely high floor.
3) Target Watch
Jeremy Maclin (vs. New York Giants) – Maclin saw another 11 targets last week, which now makes him the most targeted wide receiver in the NFL. He was having a relatively quiet game against the Rams until hauling in a late 24-yard touchdown pass from Nick Foles. Maclin should continue seeing an elite number of targets, and he continues to be priced “ready to move”, as he’s the 9th most expensive wide receiver on DraftKings this week.
Vincent Jackson (vs. Baltimore Ravens) – Even though players shouldn’t necessarily be happy when their teammates get hurt, Jackson couldn’t have been too disappointed to see Josh McCown go down with a thumb injury. The reasoning is simple: Mike Glennon loves to target Jackson down the field. In the last two weeks, Jackson has seen 21 targets. He’s also coming off of his biggest game of the season, as he had eight receptions for 144 yards against the Saints in Week 5.
Tim Wright (vs. Buffalo Bills) – The Logan Mankins trade certainly looks a lot better than it did a week ago. While he only played 19 of 81 snaps against the Bengals, he made the most of them with five receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown. Wright is worth monitoring moving forward, as the Patriots had a lot of success out of two and even three tight-end sets.
4) DvP Standouts
Eli Manning (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – Who could have ever guessed that if you give Eli Manning time, he’s actually a pretty good quarterback. The Giants have also employed a quick passing attack that the offense has really started to grasp. This week Manning gets to face the fast-paced Eagles, who continue to give up big outings to opposing quarterbacks. After Austin Davis threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns last week, Manning and the G-Men will be licking their chops for this matchup.
Eddie Lacy (vs. Miami Dolphins) – Right when everyone had officially jumped off the Lacy bandwagon, he went out and ran all over the Vikings in the Thursday night game. Lacy finished with 105 yards and two touchdowns on only 13 carries. He looked like a much more confident runner after being held in check through the first four weeks. This week he faced a Dolphins defense that has given up the seventh most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season.
5) Week 5 Injury Watch
Andre Williams (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – Rashad Jennings left last week’s game with a sprained MCL and will likely miss the next few weeks. That opens the door for Williams to become the Giants’ workhorse back. Williams performed admirably in last week’s win with 83 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Williams should be one of the more popular value plays of the week.
Ronnie Hillman (vs. New York Jets) – Hillman is another running back that should see a large boost in opportunity thanks to an injury. Montee Ball hurt his groin in the win against the Cardinals and it sounds like it may be serious. Hillman should get the start this week against a Jets defense that was thrashed by the Chargers both through the air and on the ground. Hillman may fly under the radar this week, but provides good upside for the price.
Charlie Whitehurst (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars) – Whitehurst isn’t a quarterback that you’ll have 100% confidence in if you roster him, but with a matchup against the Jaguars, he could easily meet and exceed value. Jake Locker is currently listed as questionable this week, so you will have to monitor his status as we get closer to Sunday. If Whitehurst gets the start, he should have plenty of opportunities to succeed against a Jaguars defense that has given up the most passing yards and the second most passing touchdowns this season.