NFL First Look: Week 7

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-10-17 20:38:47

Hopefully Week 6 turned out as well as you had all hoped. As usual, my teams fell short of my lofty expectations, but there are very few instances when my teams actually perform up to the level that I think they are capable of when lineups first lock on Sunday. It’s the beauty of daily fantasy sports. We have to strive to always be better with each and every week and construct our own unique optimal lineups.

That’s the goal once again as we head into Week 7 (is it me or does it seem like Week 1 was a week or two ago?). DraftKings will be awarding another million dollar first prize in their Millionaire Maker event, so don’t forget to take your shot at a life-changing payday.

Week 7 Schedule

1) Quarterback Quandary

Aaron Rodgers (vs. Carolina Panthers) – Rodgers led the Packers to an incredible comeback victory against the Dolphins last week. He’s been as locked in as any quarterback in the NFL over the last three weeks, having recorded 10 touchdown passes without throwing a single interception. Rodgers has everything that you want in a fantasy quarterback: he plays in a potent offense, he has plenty of weapons to work with, and his team leans heavily on his arm as they often struggle to run the ball. This week he takes on a Panthers defense that is a far cry from the dominant defense that we saw last season. The Panthers are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and are ranked 23rd in against the pass (pass rush + pass coverage) on ProFootballFocus.

Joe Flacco (vs. Atlanta Falcons) – Flacco had one of the best first halves of football that I can ever remember (I’m 27 so I remember quite a bit). He threw five touchdown passes in the first 17 minutes of play. Unfortunately, the Ravens were up by so much at that point that they didn’t need to air it out the rest of the game, or we could have really seen something special from Flacco. He has topped 300 yards or thrown at least two touchdown passes in four of the first six games of the season. This week he squares off against a Falcons defense that has been atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons can’t stop the run and they can’t defend the pass. Baltimore is projected as one of the highest scoring teams of the week and Flacco should be able to find some success through the air.

2) Running Back Rampage

DeMarco Murray (vs. New York Giants) – This kind of consistency doesn’t happen in fantasy football, especially at the running back position. Murray has gotten off to a truly great start with six straight 100-yard games. Murray has also recorded a rushing touchdown in five of the first six games. If he can top 100 yards against the Seahawks in Seattle, he should easily be able to keep that streak alive against the Giants, who gave up a huge game on the ground to the Eagles last week. Murray is averaging an NFL-high 29 touches per game and has everything that you want in a running back: he’s the workhorse back, he’s a weapon catching the ball out of the backfield, and he sees all of the goal-line work.

Le’Veon Bell (vs. Houston Texans) – Bell has also topped 100 yards in each of the first six games of the season, but he hasn’t done it all on the ground. Bell has one of the highest floors that you are going to find at the running back position, as he has topped 14.5 DraftKings fantasy points in every game this season. Bell is ranked fifth among running backs in touches per game this season at 22 and should have another heavy workload this week against the Texans at home. After the Steelers were torched by the Browns, I expect them to get back to the old-fashioned ground and pound game. That’s good news for Bell, who should be able to find some holes against the Texans, whose run defense is subpar at best.

3) Wide Receiver Round-Up

Jordy Nelson (vs. Carolina Panthers) – It’s never bad to be Aaron Rodgers favorite weapon, especially this season with the Packers having such a tough time running the ball. Nelson has now recorded over 100 yards and a touchdown in three of the first six games of the season and draws an extremely favorable matchup against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The Panthers are ranked 21st in pass coverage this season according to ProFootballFocus. Nelson should once again see double-digit targets in a game that is projected as the fourth-highest scoring matchup of the week.

Golden Tate (vs. New Orleans Saints) – Tate didn’t have the huge game that many were hoping for (myself included), but he caught seven passes for 44 yards, which salvaged his fantasy outing on full-PPR scoring sites such as DraftKings. Tate has now caught at least five balls in every game this season. With Calvin Johnson likely back in the mix this week, that should help open up Tate on the underneath routes, as the Lions square off against the Saints in what is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week. Tate has a high floor and also a high ceiling in this matchup, making him one of the top wide receiver options for cash games.

4) Target Watch

Fred Jackson (vs. Minnesota Vikings) – Jackson could be a great contrarian play this week, especially on sites like DraftKings that have the full-PPR scoring system. Jackson is averaging 6.5 targets per game and has the second most targets (39) of any running back this season. He’s a huge weapon catching the ball out of the backfield and has been by far the more productive back in Buffalo this season.

T.Y. Hilton (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) – Hilton continues to see a ton of targets each and every week. He caught all nine of his targets last week in a monster fantasy outing against the Texans. On the season, he is in the top five in targets for a wide receiver with 59. It’s safe to say that Hilton is no longer a boom-or-bust fantasy option that can only be targeted in tournaments. Fire him up as a top 10 wide receiver this week against the Bengals.

Jordan Reed (vs. Tennessee Titans) – Reed may end up flying under the radar this week since he’s been hurt for the majority of the season. That said, Reed should be on your radar, as Kirk Cousins looked to him early and often against the Cardinals last week. Reed hauled in eight of his 11 targets for 92 yards. This may be the last week to really buy low on Reed.

5) Injury Notes: Whose Role is Going to Increase in Week 7?

Shane Vereen / Brandon Bolden – Stevan Ridley tore his ACL and MCL last week against the Bills, which opens up the door for both Vereen and Bolden. At this point in the week, we aren’t sure how the workload is going to be split, but we can expect both to have an increased role moving forward. Vereen is probably the better play against the tough run defense of the Jets, but Bolden could be worth a look, as he is close to minimum salary across the industry.

Odell Beckham Jr. / Rueben Randle – Victor Cruz (I own him in my one season-long league #DFSforlife) tore his patella tendon and is out for the rest of the season. The Giants have to be happy that they drafted talented rookie Odell Beckham Jr., as he may prove to be a huge part of this offense moving forward. Look for Randle to become the WR1 in this offense and for Beckham to start opposite him as the WR2. Both have a good outlook this week against the Cowboys, considering the Giants are going to have to score to keep up with the red-hot Cowboys.