NFL First Look: Week 8

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-10-26 17:00:34

What’s up Grinders?

Week 7 was a war of attrition. If you managed to create a lineup that avoided the many landmines, you basically won ALL of the money this week. Despite getting burned by Jordan Cameron and the Seahawks defense, my cash games were Saved by the Bell. Literally. Le’Veon Bell’s big outing on Monday night put me over the top in cash games, which was a nice surprise.

I’m still not holding a million dollar check, but hey, DraftKings is rolling out another Millionaire Maker event this week, so we all have another chance at the once-in-a-lifetime payout.

Week 8 Schedule

1) Quarterback Quandary

Drew Brees (vs. Green Bay Packers) – The Saints/Packers Sunday night game is expected to be the highest scoring of the week. In previous meetings, Brees- and Rodgers-led teams have combined for an average of 70 points per game. We can expect another shootout this time around, especially considering the fact that this game will be played in the Superdome. While you can’t go wrong with either QB in this matchup, Brees gets the edge, as he is the cheaper of the two on basically every fantasy site. The common thought is that Brees has struggled this season, but he’s thrown for at least 290 yards and two TDs in each of the last four weeks. Even though Jimmy Graham is less than 100%, Brees has other weapons that he can utilize. Treat him as a top-two QB this week.

Nick Foles (vs. Arizona Cardinals) – Foles has been a bit of a disappointment over the last three weeks. During that stretch, he is averaging 216 passing yards while throwing five interceptions. The good news is that his price has come down, and he’s also in a prime spot to bounce back this week. The Cardinals’ passing woes were hidden last week against the Raiders, but don’t let that fool you. Prior to last week, the Cardinals had allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. They were also ranked 31st in pass rush and 27th in pass coverage according to ProFootballFocus (PFF). Look for the high-flying Eagles’ passing attack to get back on track this week.

2) Running Back Rampage

DeMarco Murray (vs. Washington Redskins) – I’d love to list someone else here each week, but until he slows down, this spot is reserved for Mr. Murray. We keep hearing rumors that his workload will eventually be monitored, but until we see proof, we can continue to expect him to see 25+ touches per game. Murray set the NFL record with seven straight 100-yard games to open the season. He should have no problem extending that streak to eight games this week, as he faces the Washington Redskins, who are graded as the fourth-worst rushing defense (PFF) this season. Murray has the highest floor of any non-QB in the NFL right now and should continue to be targeted in all leagues.

Jamaal Charles (vs. St. Louis Rams) – Charles looked great last week against the Chargers. He appeared to have a little more pep in his step after the bye week. Charles finished the game with 107 yards from scrimmage and a TD against a pretty tough Chargers defense. He’s one of the few workhorse backs left in the NFL, and his ability to make plays in the running game as well as catching the ball out of the backfield makes him one of the top fantasy RBs around. This week he faces a middle-of-the-pack Rams run defense that didn’t see much of Marshawn Lynch last week after the Seahawks got down big in the first half. Charles and the Chiefs should have no problems running on the Rams this week.

Ben Tate (vs. Oakland Raiders) – Tate was one of the biggest disappointments of Week 7. Despite an extremely favorable matchup against the Jaguars, Tate could only muster up 36 yards on 16 carries. The key takeaway here is the fact that he has averaged 21 carries per game over the last three weeks. This is a great week to buy low on Tate for two reasons: 1. His price has come down across the industry and 2. Recency bias will likely scare a lot of fantasy players off of him. Buy all of the Tate shares that you can, as he should have no problems bouncing back against a Raiders defense that gave up a huge game to both Andre Ellington and Stepfan Taylor last week.

3) Wide Receiver Round-Up

Jordy Nelson (vs. New Orleans Saints) – It looked like Nelson was well on his way to another monster fantasy outing after putting up 80 yards and a TD in the first half. Unfortunately for Nelson owners, the Packers had the game in hand by then and basically took their foot off the gas pedal. We shouldn’t have to worry about that this week, as the Packers head to New Orleans to take on the Saints in what should be the highest scoring game of the week. According to PFF, The Saints are ranked dead last in pass coverage and are the third worst at generating a pass rush. That means Aaron Rodgers will have all day to throw, and Nelson should be able to beat whoever the Saints throw at him.

Sammy Watkins (vs. New York Jets) – It’s generally not a great idea to chase points in weekly fantasy football, but I may find myself doing just that with Watkins this week. Watkins not only caught the game-winner last week, but he finished with a monster fantasy performance of nine catches for 122 yards and two TDs. This week he squares off against a Jets secondary that has been routinely burned by opposing wideouts this season. Watkins should see another healthy dose of targets this week in a plus matchup against the Jets.

Michael Floyd (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – Floyd is one of the best deep threats in the NFL. His fantasy value really hinges on the health of Carson Palmer. These two hooked up for a long ball last week against the Raiders and I’m expecting them to take quite a few shots against the Eagles this week. The Eagles have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. Floyd may not be the safest cash-game option thanks to his limited targets each week, but he has big play potential and faces a weak secondary of the Eagles.

4) Top Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (vs. Chicago Bears) – Gronkowski played a season-high 93% of snaps last week against the Jets. He’s clearly fully healthy, which is bad news for opposing defenses. Big Gronk is one of the most targeted TEs in the NFL (close to eight per game) and that number continues to climb as he continues to play more and more snaps. This week he faces a Bears defense that has been decent against the TE position, but the one top TE they faced (Greg Olsen) had six catches for 72 yards and two TDs. Gronk hungry, Gronk smash!

Jordan Reed (vs. Dallas Cowboys) – Reed was a popular play in Week 7, and while he did have five catches for 54 yards, he was a bit of a disappointment. We could see his percentage of ownership come down a bit this week, even though he has one of the best matchups on the board. The Cowboys have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season, and the Redskins will likely be forced to air it out, since the Cowboys are huge favorites in this one.

5) NFL Notes for Week 8

Denard Robinson Takes Over as Starter – Robinson got the start last week against the Browns and had easily the best game of any Jaguars RB so far this season. Robinson compiled 127 yards and a TD on only 22 carries, and it sounds like he is going to get the start again this week against the Dolphins. Robinson won’t make my cash-game lineups, but he does offer a nice contrarian play for tournaments up against a Miami defense that hasn’t defended the RB position well this season.

Bills RB Situation – Fred Jackson (groin) and C.J. Spiller (collarbone) are both out for the foreseeable future. That leaves Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown as the two running backs in Buffalo. Brown is expected to take over as the primary back as he has shown an ability to handle a full workload when he was on the Eagles. Brown could be worth a look as a deep GPP play this week against the Jets as the Bills heavily involve their running backs in the offense.