NFL First Look: Week 9

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-11-02 01:20:32

To sum up my Week 8, Jordy Nelson, Julian Edelman, and Michael Floyd failed to reach double-digit fantasy points…COMBINED! Let’s take an early peek into what Week 9 has to offer.

Week 9 Schedule

Note: Stats listed are currently only updated through Week 7

1) Quarterback Quandary

Tom Brady (vs. Denver Broncos) – The Patriots dynasty is over! The Patriots are worried that Brady isn’t their QB of the future! There is unrest between Brady and the coaching staff! Oh wait, that all blew over rather quickly, didn’t it? Overreaction Monday was at it’s worst after the Patriots lost to the Chiefs in Week 4. That whole ordeal is now well behind the Patriots, as they have rolled over their last four opponents by a total of 71 points. Brady has been marvelous over that stretch averaging 318 yards and 3.5 TDs per game. Gronk’s health and the emergence of Brandon LaFell has done wonders for this offense. This week Brady squares off against his biggest rival in the NFL, Peyton Manning. With this game featuring the highest total of the week, expect both QBs to be at their best. I’ll take Brady at home with a salary discount over Manning.

Colin Kaepernick (vs. St. Louis Rams) – The Rams have really struggled against mobile QBs this season. In their two meetings against Kaepernick and Wilson, they gave up a combined 799 yards from scrimmage and six TDs. According to ProFootballFocus (PFF), the Rams are graded below average in both pass rush and pass coverage. When Kaepernick has time in the pocket, he can hurt opposing defenses with both his arm and his legs. While it may be greedy to expect a repeat performance of the one he had against the Rams earlier in the season, he should be good for around 300 yards from scrimmage and a couple of TDs. Kaepernick’s ability to run the ball raises his floor and his big play potential raises his ceiling. He’s a solid target in both cash games as well as tournaments.

2) Running Back Rampage

Marshawn Lynch (vs. Oakland Raiders) – Give up on Lynch if you must, but as long as the Seahawks don’t trade him by Tuesday afternoon, I’ll be heavily investing in some “Skittles” this weekend. Not only do I love candy, but Lynch is in a prime spot for a bounce-back game. While Lynch’s carries and efficiency have both been down over the last few weeks, a lot of that has been dictated by game flow. The Seahawks were down most of the game against both the Cowboys and the Rams, and the team was stuck in a defensive battle against the Panthers last week. Game flow should be in his favor this week, as the Seahawks are the biggest favorites of the week. They are currently 14.5-point favorites against the Raiders, who have been thrashed by the run all season. The Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Lynch should have his best game on the ground since Week 1 against the Packers.

LeSean McCoy (vs. Houston Texans) – Trends are converging for McCoy to have a breakout game this week against the Texans. He has had at least 22 carries in each of his last three games, the Eagles offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season, and he draws a prime matchup against the Texans, who are graded as the second worst run defense (PFF). This is the week to buy low on McCoy and hope that the masses don’t follow suit. Mccoy racked up 97 yards from scrimmage against one of the NFL’s best run defenses last week and should be licking his chops to face the Texans. McCoy should see around 25 touches once again with a great chance to find the end zone at least once.

Jerick McKinnon (vs. Washington Redskins) – McKinnon has established himself as the feature back in Minnesota. While he only ended up playing on 43 of the 86 offensive snaps in Week 8, he out-touched Matt Asiata 17 to 8. While those of us that play weekly fantasy football would like to see the rookie get 25 touches per game, we’ll likely have to settle for around 20. This week the Vikings face the Redskins, who haven’t allowed many fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. That said, they are currently graded as the sixth-worst run defense (PFF), and the Cowboys had no problems running it against them on Monday night. McKinnon has big-play potential and should see a full complement of touches this week in what will likely be one of the only games in which the Vikings are favored.

3) Wide Receiver Round-Up

Dez Bryant (vs. Arizona Cardinals) – The Cardinals pass defense has been next to awful this season. They have allowed the most passing yards per game (303) and they may be even worse this week as Patrick Peterson could be out after suffering a concussion in last week’s game against the Eagles. Cue up Dez as a top three wideout this week with the potential to be the highest scoring receiver on the board. As long as Tony Romo is healthy enough to play after hurting his back, Dez should be targeted in all league formats.

T.Y. Hilton (vs. New York Giants) – The Giants have a solid young secondary, but Hilton has proved time and time again this season that he is matchup proof. He is averaging 10 targets per game and gets a mix of short and deep balls thrown his way, which gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling. Over the last five weeks, Hilton is averaging 7.4 catches per game for 136 yards. He’s also added two receiving TDs during that stretch. Even if Reggie Wayne comes back this week, that shouldn’t stop Hilton from having another big fantasy outing. Look for Luck and the Colts offense to get back on track against the Giants.

Andre Johnson (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) – Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are options 1A and 1B in the Texans passing game. While Hopkins has had a couple of big outings in a row, I will continue to treat Johnson as the better fantasy play of the two until the target distribution changes. Johnson is averaging close to three more targets per game than Hopkins and saw a team-high 12 targets last week against the Titans. This week he faces a shaky Eagles secondary that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. This game’s total is set at 48.5 points, which is high for a Texans game. They may be forced to air it out a bit more this week to keep up with the Eagles.

4) Towering Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski (vs. Denver Broncos) – Gronk showed why he is the best TE in the NFL when he is healthy (yes Jimmy Graham is right there too). Gronk carried tacklers on his way to a 9-catch-149 yard-3-TD performance against the Bears last week. Much like a few years ago, Gronk looked like a man among boys out there. This week the Patriots square off against the Broncos in a game that has the highest total of the week. The Broncos have some talented corners that could cause problems for the Patriots WRs, but they don’t have anyone that can cover Gronk. It’s typically not wise to chase fantasy points after a big week from a player, but this case is a bit different. Gronk is far and away the best TE option in Week 9.

Larry Donnell (vs. New York Giants) – Donnell has not been a consistent fantasy option this season. On full PPR sites, he has scored over 14 fantasy points in four games and a combined 11.1 fantasy points in the other three. While that’s not exactly what we like to target in cash games, Donnell caught all seven of his targets for 90 yards in the Giants first game without Victor Cruz. This week he faces a Colts defense that has given up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. The Giants will likely be forced to air it out if they want to keep up with the Colts, who own one of the best offenses in the NFL.

5) Thursday Night Standouts

Mark Ingram – If you are playing in contests that start on Thursday night, there are actually a couple of good plays this week. Ingram is coming off of a career outing against the Packers in which he racked up 175 yards and a TD. Coming off of a bye week, he looked as good as we have ever seen him in an NFL uniform. Part of that was likely due to the fact that the Packers left gaping holes on defense, but Ingram will likely see similar ones this week against the Panthers who have allowed the seventh most rushing yards per game this season. Ingram is a solid play either way, but give him a small boost if Pierre Thomas and/or Khiry Robinson are out again this week.

Greg Olsen – There are two reasons to like Olsen this week. First, he’s coming off of his worst game of the season, as he caught a single pass for only 16 yards. Great players tend to bounce back after subpar outings. Second, he’s facing the Saints who have made it tough on opposing number one wideouts this season. With Keenan Lewis defending Kelvin Benjamin on the outside, look for Cam Newton to look Olsen’s way early and often.