NFL First Look: Wild Card Weekend
| MATCHUP | VEGAS LINE | AWAY TOTAL | HOME TOTAL | DATE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona at Carolina | CAR -5.5 | ARI: 16.3 | CAR: 21.8 | Saturday, January 3rd | 4:20 PM |
| Baltimore at Pittsburgh | PIT -3 | BAL: 22 | PIT: 25 | Saturday, January 3rd | 8:15 PM |
| Cincinnati at Indianapolis | IND -4 | CIN: 22.5 | IND: 26.5 | Sunday, January 4th | 1:05 PM |
| Detroit at Dallas | DAL -7 | DET: 20.5 | DAL: 27.5 | Sunday, January 4th | 4:40 PM |
1) Injury Notes
Steelers – Le’Veon Bell hyper-extended his knee against the Bengals. While he managed to avoid ligament damage, he is highly questionable for this week’s game against the Ravens.
Bengals – A.J. Green left last week’s game against the Steelers with a head injury. He is in the league’s protocol and will be in a race against the clock to get cleared for this week’s game against the Colts.
Cardinals – Drew Stanton is still dealing with an infection in his knee, but the Cardinals are hopeful that he can play in this week’s game against the Panthers. If he is forced to sit, Ryan Lindley would likely get the start.
Panthers – DeAngelo Williams is expected to make his return to the lineup this week against the Cardinals. Jonathan Stewart will still be the feature back in this offense, though Williams’ return may cut into his touches.
Colts – T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, and Dwayne Allen are all expected to practice this week, which would put them on track to play against the Bengals.
2) Quarterback Quandary
Andrew Luck (vs. Cincinnati Bengals) – Luck is the premier play at quarterback this weekend, but it’s going to be hard to afford him without the usual value plays that we can exploit. That said, if you can find a way to get him in your lineups, he could reward you handsomely. He squares off against a Bengals defense that is graded as having the worst pass rush in the entire NFL this season (PFF). A lack of a pass rush should give Luck plenty of time to find his weapons down field. Luck also gets a small fantasy boost with this game being played at home. Weather will not be a factor in this game. Luck has also played well at home this season, averaging 292 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game.
Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Baltimore Ravens) – Roethlisberger salvaged his fantasy outing last week on a long touchdown strike to Antonio Brown late in the fourth quarter that all but clinched the division for the Steelers. That win allows them to host a playoff game, rather than traveling on the road. The Ravens have been a perfect defense to target quarterbacks against this season. They are extremely stout against the run and they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL and show by their third worst Ranking vs. the Wide Receiver position. In his two meetings against the Ravens this season, Roethlisberger is averaging 278 yards and three touchdowns per game. He has also had terrific splits at home this season, averaging 345 yards and 2.9 touchdowns per game.
3) Running Back Rampage
DeMarco Murray (vs. Detroit Lions) – A matchup against a stingy Lions is tough on paper, but Murray has been the best running back in the NFL this season. The Lions will also likely (pending appeal) be without their defensive anchor Ndamukong Suh. Murray has run well against tough run defenses all season long, a trend that I expect to continue this week against the Lions. The Cowboys offensive line is graded as the second best run-blocking unit in the NFL this season. The Cowboys have shown little hesitancy in giving Murray 30+ touches and there is no reason to think that will change in a win or go home situation against the Lions.
Jeremy Hill (vs. Indianapolis Colts) – Hill is one of two LSU rookies whose name is going to be around for a long, long time. In eight starts this season, Hill has averaged 110 yards from scrimmage and 0.75 touchdowns per game. He has ran for at least 100 yards in each of his last three games and should be a major part of the game plan this week against the Colts. On the season, the Colts have given up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. In addition to having a favorable matchup and a heavy workload, Hill will be running behind an offensive line that is graded as the fifth best run-blocking unit in the NFL this season.
Justin Forsett (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) – Forsett didn’t find the end zone last week against the Browns, but he bounced out of a two-week slump with 136 yards from scrimmage on only 19 touches. In his first two meetings against the Steelers this season, Forsett was largely bottled up on the ground, but he did average 42 receiving yards per game. Now that we are in the playoffs, the choices at each position are very limited. Given his price point on DraftKings ($6,100), he’s very playable against an average run defense of the Steelers.
4) Wide Receiver Watch
Antonio Brown (vs. Baltimore Ravens) – Brown led the NFL with 129 receptions this season, and the race wasn’t even close. Of those 129 receptions, 18 came against the Ravens in their two meetings earlier this season. Brown is one of the toughest covers in the NFL, and as I mentioned above, the Ravens have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. With Le’Veon Bell banged up and questionable to play this week, the Steelers may be forced to air it out.
Torrey Smith (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers) – Calvin Johnson obviously makes a terrific play this week, but I didn’t want to list the superstars at each position because there is no way to fit them all into your lineup. Smith makes the list of suggested plays thanks to a very affordable price tag on DraftKings ($5,400). Smith hasn’t had many big games in terms of receiving yards this season, but he has caught ten touchdowns over his last 10 games. The Steelers have a very beatable secondary and have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
Mohamed Sanu (vs. Indianapolis Colts) – This pick hinges on the health of A.J. Green. Green is currently in the league’s concussion protocol and is questionable for this week’s game against the Colts. If he is forced to sit, Sanu would become the number one wideout in this Bengals offense, a role that he really excelled in earlier this season. Even if Green is able to suit up, and even if Green is at 100%, Sanu could still be a sneaky play in tournaments. Green would have to lock horns with Vontae Davis, who is one of the best corners in the NFL.
5) Towering Tight Ends
Greg Olsen (vs. Arizona Cardinals) – It will be tempting to go with one of the cheaper tight ends this week in order to afford some of the more expensive players at other positions, but I’m all in on Olsen. Not only is he the best tight end available, but he also draws the best matchup of the week as well. The Cardinals were dreadful against tight ends last season and have done little to nothing to change that this season. The Cardinals are ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and Olsen is Cam Newton’s most trusted target.