NFL First Look: Wild Card Round

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:08:46

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The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

Color Coding

1) Numbers in BLUE represent the “elite” category, in approximately the top 25th percentile.
2) Numbers in GREEN represent the “above-average” category, in approximately the top 50th percentile.
3) Numbers in YELLOW represent the “below-average” category, in approximately the bottom 50th percentile.
4) Numbers in RED represent the “poor” category, in approximately the bottom 25th percentile.

Wildcard Round Thoughts

— The Raiders/Texans game should be a real barn burner. The over/under is set at 36.5 points and the Raiders could be on their third string quarterback with Matt McGloin’s status up in the air. The Texans have the equivalent of a third-string quarterback in Brock Osweiler. For fantasy, we basically can pick one of the two defenses and move on.

— The Lions blew an opportunity to host a first-round playoff game and their punishment is having to face the Seahawks in Seattle. We’ve seen this offense struggle on the road and they will need a heavy dose of Zach Zenner if they are going to keep this game close.

— The Seahawks have plenty of playoff experience and get to face a Lions’ team that has lost three games in a row. Seattle should be able to roll into the Divisional Round. Look for a pass-heavy game plan to start the game, as Detroit is ranked dead last in pass DVOA this season.

— The Dolphins come into the week as the biggest underdogs of the week. It’s a tall task beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh, especially in January. The one positive is that game flow should bode well for their passing game.

— The Steelers are ten point favorites and they are playing at home where they averaged 28.2 points per game during the regular season. The Killer B’s should be in full effect this week and you can honestly make the argument to play all three in the same lineup.

— The Giants shocked everyone in Week 17. Not only did they play their starters the entire game, but they pulled off the upset in Washington to knock the Redskins out of the playoffs. If we’ve learned about about New York over the years, it is to never count them out in the playoffs.

— Aaron Rodgers made some incredible throws last week against the Lions. Even though the line has come down in this game, the Packers are the hottest team in football. They have won each of their last six games and are playing in Lambeau.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play

First Look Legend