NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 1
In 2021, we led many pick’em participants to championships in their confidence pools with a 181-90-1 (66.8%) season! Last year, we regressed slightly, but rarely missed on our top weekly selections, which meant that a 171-98-3 (63.6%) season was good enough to, once again, win the vast majority of tournaments. We had zero weeks in 2022 with a sub .500 record on our recommendations.
We are back again for 2023, beginning with an exciting, albeit challenging, opening week of NFL action!
2023 NFL Pick’em Pools
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is of course prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow me on Twitter.
NFL Week 1 Confidence Rankings
Week 1 Selections
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Washington Commanders
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Los Angeles Chargers
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Minnesota Vikings
8. Atlanta Falcons
9. New Orleans Saints
10. Denver Broncos
11. Green Bay Packers
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. New York Jets
14. Cleveland Browns
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Detroit Lions
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 1
Ravens (vs. Texans)
It is debatable as to whether the Houston Texans should be such a large underdog in this contest, but there is not much room to argue for an outright upset here. C.J. Stroud is likely the most NFL-ready quarterback from this past summer’s draft, but it is unlikely he is able to start his career 1-0 against a Baltimore Ravens team that is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Ravens have one of the best secondary units in the NFL and a linebacker corps that should be able to diminish the negative impact of their relatively weak interior defensive line. Though the Texans figure to be much better than their 3-13-1 record from 2022, they simply do not have enough talent or experience to come away with a win in Week 1, playing in a hostile environment against a superior opponent.
Commanders (vs. Cardinals)
Admittedly, the Washington Commanders are not a team I envision putting this much confidence in on a weekly basis this fall. However, it is hard to envision them losing to checks notes Josh Dobbs at home to open the season. Though the Cardinals are technically not yet decided on a starting signal caller in this matchup, it is widely assumed that it will be Dobbs, who was acquired via trade from the Cleveland Browns only two weeks ago. Putting it bluntly, the Arizona Cardinals are completely devoid of talent on the defensive side of the ball entering the new season. In addition to having an unproven quarterback starting in Week 1, the Cardinals are also extremely overmatched in this spot at the line of scrimmage against Washington’s strong pass rush. Arizona is going to play hard under new head coach Jonathan Gannon, but talent wins far more football games than effort at this level. The reality is that Washington has a sizable advantage when it comes to talent – trust them to get the job done in front of their home fans.
Seahawks (vs. Rams)
The Los Angeles Rams are arguably in worse shape than any roster heading into the opening week of action. Cooper Kupp being out of the lineup leaves the offense with zero proven pass-catchers. The last time we saw Matthew Stafford play in the regular season, he had a 10-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranked 26th in EPA / play among qualified signal callers. The Rams might have the worst secondary unit in the entire NFL this fall. They will start Derion Kendrick at cornerback this weekend, who ranked 118th out of 120 players in coverage grade in 2022, per PFF. The Seattle Seahawks are not an elite football team, which makes it slightly uneasy to have them as our third-highest confidence pick of the week. However, they are undeniably the more talented team in this contest. Intra-division games are a breeding ground for surprising upsets, but everything on paper points towards one outcome here – a Seahawks victory.
Chargers (vs. Dolphins)
On Thursday, left tackle Terron Armstead was once again listed as a non-participant in practice. The Miami Dolphins will already be at a disadvantage defensively in this one, as they try to implement Vic Fangio’s new defensive scheme while Jalen Ramsey is sidelined with an injury. The absence of Armstead on the offensive line is a major factor that is being overlooked here. The Los Angeles Chargers also have a new offensive coordinator and figure to be much more explosive with a few new weapons in the passing game. Defensively, the Chargers were the first team in 2022 to find a way to disrupt the rhythm and timing of Mike McDaniel’s elite offense. Los Angeles is favored by a field goal as of this writing, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see that line run to four points by kickoff.
Eagles (vs. Patriots)
As a general disclaimer, Tom Brady is being honored prior to kickoff of this game. This changes absolutely nothing about the on-field analysis, but Brady returning to Foxborough is going to have the crowd in a frenzy, which could have some level of impact on this contest. Still, this is a Philadelphia Eagles team that annihilated their competition in 2022 en route to winning the NFC. In recent history, Bill Belichick defenses have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, such as Jalen Hurts. Bill O’Brien is the new offensive coordinator and figures to bring plenty of creativity to this unit, but the reality is that the wide receiver room is still barren and the New England Patriots are banged up on the offensive line. The Eagles have the better quarterback and should win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball on Sunday. This is likely to be a close game, but Philadelphia is talented enough to emerge with a win.
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6