NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 10
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 78-44-1 (63.9%) record through six weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 156-71-1 (68.7%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 was our second consecutive week with double-digit victories, despite multiple teams being on a bye. In Week 10, we will look to stay hot!
2022 NFL Pick’em selections!
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 10 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 10 Selections
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Miami Dolphins
6. Tennessee Titans
7. New York Giants
8. Buffalo Bills
9. New Orleans Saints
10. Chicago Bears
11. Seattle Seahawks
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Arizona Cardinals
14. Las Vegas Raiders
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 10
Eagles (vs. Commanders)
Entering Week 10, the Philadelphia Eagles are the only team in the NFL without a loss. After seven contests, the Eagles rank 3rd in offensive EPA/play and 4th in defensive EPA/play, with a poor run defense continuing to be the only Achilles’ heel on an otherwise loaded roster. On Sunday, Philadelphia has a favorable matchup against a Washington Commanders team that will be led by backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Washington’s Defense has been strong of late, ranking 10th in EPA/play across the last three weeks. Still, the Commanders are the inferior team on both sides of the ball in this contest. Further supporting this look is the fact that the Eagles, an elite team, had extra time to prepare for this intra-division battle after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 9. Until the Eagles prove otherwise, there is no reason for them to be anywhere other than the top of confidence pool lists on a weekly basis.
Chiefs (vs. Jaguars)
The Kansas City Chiefs only narrowly avoided a major upset in Week 9 against the Tennessee Titans, securing a 20-17 victory in overtime. However, there are more than a few reasons to be optimistic that Kansas City does not take their Week 10 contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars down to the wire. Despite a narrow margin of victory, the Chiefs still out-gained the Titans 499-229 on the evening and had an advantage of over 15 minutes when it came to time of possession. These two stats indicate that Kansas City did an excellent job moving the football, while simultaneously keeping their defense rested, and keeping Tennessee’s offense from many explosive plays. Expect Patrick Mahomes and company to perform well against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 15th in the NFL in EPA/play this fall. A rested Chiefs’ defense should be able to do enough on their side of the ball to earn another victory.
Cowboys (vs. Packers)
The Green Bay Packers continue to get an abundance of respect at sportsbooks, but not for good reason. Entering play this weekend, Green Bay ranks 23rd in offensive EPA/play and 17th in defensive EPA/play. Despite playing a significant portion of their early season schedule without Dak Prescott under center, the Dallas Cowboys still rank 16th on the season in offensive EPA/play. The Cowboys’ defense has been nothing short of elite, ranking 3rd in EPA/play through eight games. Dallas should be able to earn a comfortable victory in this spot.
49ers (vs. Chargers)
Of all of the teams that are favored by at least a touchdown in Week 10, the San Francisco 49ers carry the most risk for bettors due to the uninspiring play of Jimmy Garoppolo, who ranks 22nd in QBR among qualified signal callers in 2022. Nonetheless, the 49ers should have a massive advantage at the line of scrimmage on Sunday, which is likely to lead to a win against a Los Angeles Chargers team that ranks worse than league average in both offensive EPA/play and defensive EPA/play this season. If San Francisco can run the ball effectively against a Los Angeles defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA/play this year, they should be able to walk away with a win.
Dolphins (vs. Browns)
Heading into Week 10, Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in EPA/play among qualified quarterbacks, and by a wide margin. On the season, Tagovailoa owns a sterling 15-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranks 5th in touchdown passes, despite missing multiple games with an injury. On Sunday, he has the benefit of playing a Cleveland Browns’ secondary unit that ranks 16th in Dropback EPA/play and 23rd in opponent passing yards-per-attempt in eight games. A lackluster Dolphins’ defense is likely to keep this game competitive throughout the afternoon, but Miami should find a way to win.
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