NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 11
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 78-44-1 (63.9%) record through six weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 163-78-1 (68.7%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing a 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 was our second consecutive week with double-digit victories, despite multiple teams being on a bye. In Week 10, we took a beating thanks to a couple of major upsets, but are poised for a bounce-back in Week 11!
2022 NFL Pick’em selections!
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 11 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 11 Selections
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Dallas Cowboys
8. New York Giants
9. Denver Broncos
10. Chicago Bears
11. New Orleans Saints
12. Washington Commanders
13. New England Patriots
14. Tennessee Titans
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 11
Ravens (vs. Panthers)
Entering Week 11, the Baltimore Ravens own the 4th-best point differential in the entire AFC, trailing only the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals. If not for blowing a lead in the closing minutes in each of their three losses, the Ravens could have been the last remaining undefeated team in the league at this juncture of the campaign. Regardless of their current record, there is little doubt that Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league, and a legitimate Super Bowl contender. After nine games, Baltimore’s offense ranks 6th in EPA/play, and their defense ranks 17th in EPA/play since Week 5. The Ravens have allowed 22 points or less in each of their last three contests. Facing a depleted Carolina Panthers offense on Sunday, this group should be able to do enough to earn their fourth consecutive victory.
Eagles (vs. Colts)
On Monday Night Football, the Philadelphia Eagles finally suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of the Washington Commanders. However, it took one of the most unusual game scripts of the season for Philadelphia to find themselves on the losing end of the scoreboard, and still – it was a game ripe for the taking until the closing seconds. In the loss, the Commanders ran 81 plays and possessed the ball for 40 minutes and 24 seconds. In stark contrast, the Eagles ran only 47 plays and had the ball for 19 minutes and 36 seconds. In Week 11, the Philadelphia defense could be a concern on a short week, with the extreme number of plays from Monday being an additional concern. Nevertheless, Philadelphia’s elite offense should be able to out-duel a weak Indianapolis Colts offense in this matchup. Take the birds to get back in the win column here.
49ers (vs. Cardinals)
The San Francisco 49ers do not win in the most stress-free fashion on a weekly basis, but they are undoubtedly capable of earning a victory every single time they take the field. In Week 11, the 49ers get a favorable matchup against an Arizona Cardinals team that is not well-equipped to battle a much better San Francisco team. The 49ers are the better team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in this contest, and should be able to dominate an Arizona defense that ranks 23rd in defensive Rush EPA/play since Week 5. Expect San Francisco to get the job done again.
Chiefs (vs. Chargers)
In Week 2, the Los Angeles Chargers ran 20 more plays than the Kansas City Chiefs, out-gained them by 82 yards, and dominated the time of possession, but still were unable to come out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win. In the rematch, the Chargers will be without defensive end Joey Bosa, offensive tackle Rashawn Slater, and potentially wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who are each listed as questionable as of this writing. Conversely, Patrick Mahomes and company are at near full health and playing some of their best football of the season – having won five of their last six contests, with their lone loss in that span coming against the Buffalo Bills. There is little doubt as to which team has more talent in this AFC West battle – take the Chiefs.
Bengals (vs. Steelers)
Coming off of a bye week, there are few convincing arguments to be made against the Cincinnati Bengals in this spot. In Week 1, the Steelers managed to pull-off an upset victory over Joe Burrow and the defending AFC Champions. However, there are more than a few reasons to believe that Cincinnati can avoid a season-sweep in this series. Since Week 6, the Bengals lead the NFL in offensive EPA/play, with the Steelers ranking 20th during that same stretch. On the season, Cincinnati ranks 3rd in the league in offensive 3rd down conversion rate, while Pittsburgh ranks 26th. Even if the Steelers’ defense manages to keep this game close, it is doubtful that their offense will be able to put up enough points to earn a win.
Edited to remove duplicate ranking for New York Giants. Previously listed twice on the list.
Image Credit: Imagn