NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 13
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 117-62-1 (65.4%) record through 12 weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 185-86-1 (68.3%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 was our second consecutive week with double-digit victories, despite multiple teams being on a bye. In Week 10, we took a beating thanks to a couple of major upsets, but bounced-back, as promised, in Week 11 – hitting each of our top-seven plays, including 11-of-14 overall! In Week 12, we had double-digit victories for the fourth time in five weeks. We will look to continue our positive momentum in Week 13!
2022 NFL Pick’em
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 13 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 13 Selections
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Cleveland Browns
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Kansas City Chiefs
8. Philadelphia Eagles
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
10. Atlanta Falcons
11. Chicago Bears
12. New York Jets
13. New Orleans Saints
14. Las Vegas Raiders
15. Washington Commanders
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 13
Cowboys (vs. Colts)
Since Dak Prescott returned to the field in Week 7, the Dallas Cowboys are 4-1, with their lone loss in that span coming against the Green Bay Packers in overtime on the road – a game in which Dallas led by 14 points in the fourth quarter. In their last five games, the Cowboys rank 4th in offensive EPA/play and 6th in defensive EPA/play. In three games since Matt Ryan was re-inserted as the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, they rank 25th in offensive EPA/play. In each of the last two weeks, the Colts have scored 17 points or fewer, despite both games being played at home. In this matchup, Dallas has the rest advantage, and is significantly more talented that Indianapolis. The Cowboys should be everyone’s top-confidence play for Week 13.
Ravens (vs. Broncos)
The Denver Broncos are in a complete tailspin towards the bottom of the AFC standings, having lost seven of their last eight games. Since Russell Wilson returned from injury in Week 8, Denver has only one win, and ranks 27th in offensive EPA/play. No matter how well the Broncos defense plays, it is difficult to see a path to victory for Denver in this game. Since Week 5, the Broncos have scored fewer than 20 points in six-of-seven contests, with the lone outlier being a 21-17 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Conversely, the Baltimore Ravens are 7-4 overall, with all four of their losses coming as a result of blown leads late in the fourth quarter. Notably, Baltimore has not lost two games in a row this fall, and has seemingly been able to quickly refocus each time they have suffered an embarrassing defeat. On the season, the Ravens rank 7th in offensive EPA/play and 17th in defensive EPA/play – making them, unquestionably, the better team in this spot.
Seahawks (vs. Rams)
In Week 13, the Los Angeles Rams will be without quarterback Matthew Stafford, defensive tackles Aaron Donald and A’Shawn Robinson, wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson, and left tackle Joseph Noteboom. When Stafford sat in Week 10 against the Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles struggled mightily offensively in a 27-17 loss. In Week 12, Bryce Perkins had only 100 passing yards and threw two interceptions in a 26-10 defeat at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Seattle Seahawks suffered a 40-34 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12, but they remain capable of scoring an abundance of points on a weekly basis, which should help them walk away with a win this weekend – even if their defense does not play their best game. It is rare that bettors see a team missing as much talent (and as much payroll) and the Rams will be without in Week 13 – there is a reason that Seattle is favored by a touchdown on the road.
Browns (vs. Texans)
The Cleveland Browns are not the safest pick of the weekend, despite the return of quarterback Deshaun Watson, but they should find a way to secure their second consecutive victory when they travel to play the Houston Texans on Sunday. Through 11 games, Cleveland ranks 6th in offensive EPA/play with Jacoby Brissett under center, during which the Houston Texans ranked 32nd in offensive EPA/play. Defensively, the Browns continue to be poor, ranking in the bottom-third of the NFL in most key metrics. However, the Texans rank 23rd in defensive EPA/play this fall, making it unlikely that they manage to pull off an upset in a low-scoring affair. Overall, Cleveland is flawed, but significantly more talented than Houston – they should be able to get the job done in this spot.
49ers (vs. Dolphins)
Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the field in Week 7, the Miami Dolphins rank 3rd in the NFL in offensive EPA/play, and have scored 30-plus points in four consecutive games. However, this offense could find life much more difficult in Week 13, facing a talented San Francisco 49ers pass-rush, without the benefit of left tackle Terron Armstead. Though the coaching staff has not yet ruled out Armstead for this weekend, it is doubtful that he will be able to suit-up, only one week after he suffered a strained pectoral muscle against the Houston Texans. Jimmy Garoppolo does not have gaudy advanced metrics and bettors are familiar with his inability to throw the ball down-the-field with precision – however, he owns a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 10 games, including a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during San Francisco’s four-game winning streak. Garoppolo’s main weakness, beyond throwing deep down-the-field, is the fact that he struggles mightily when under duress. Yet, The Dolphins defense ranks only 20th in sacks per pass attempt. If the 49ers are able to run the ball effectively on Sunday, and if they are able to disrupt the Dolphins passing attack a moderate amount – they should be able to defend home-field here.
Image Credit: Imagn