NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight-Up Picks Week 17
Heading into Week 16, we have a 42-10 record in our top-six overall for confidence purposes across the last nine weeks.
Tonight, Week 17 of the NFL season will begin with a Thursday Night Football affair between the Jets and Browns, with the other 30 NFL teams scheduled to play on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday!
Below, we have our Week 17 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
NFL Week 17 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 17 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. Chicago Bears
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Cleveland Browns
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Houston Texans
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
10. Las Vegas Raiders
11. Dallas Cowboys
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Kansas City Chiefs
15. Los Angeles Chargers
16. Green Bay Packers
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 17
Bills (vs. Patriots)
From Week 13 to Week 16, the Bills ranked 10th in offensive EPA/play and 8th in defensive EPA/play despite dealing with a laundry list of injuries to key members of their defense. During that same stretch, the Patriots rank 5th in defensive EPA/play, but only 30th in offensive EPA/play – providing evidence as to why Josh Allen and company are nearly 2-touchdown favorites in this matchup. Playing at home in a must-win situation to keep their hopes of the 2-seed alive in the AFC, Buffalo is likely to have little trouble taking care of business in this spot.
Chiefs (vs. Raiders)
In a similar vein, the Raiders have played well under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, but they are nowhere near as talented as their 63-21 victory would lead people to believe. In six games since Josh McDaniels was fired, the Raiders are 3-3, with wins against the Giants, Jets, and Chargers – three of the worst teams in the NFL. Facing three teams with a winning record during that stretch, the Raiders are 0-3 and averaging only 10 points scored per game. The media has certainly made it seem as though the kingdom is collapsing in Kansas City, but Patrick Mahomes and company still rank 6th in DVOA since Week 12, making them deserving favorites in this spot. Trust them to get the job done on their home field.
Rams (vs. Giants)
Since Week 13, the Rams rank 5th in offensive EPA/play and 9th in offensive success rate compared to the Giants, which rank 25th in both of those offensive metrics. Defensively, the Rams rank 14th in EPA/play and 10th in success rate during that stretch, while the Giants rank 26th in both defensive metrics. Simply, New York is one of the worst teams in the NFL at this point in the season, and an 8-point loss to the mediocre Eagles in Week 16 is hardly anything to celebrate. Matthew Stafford and company are firing on all cylinders at the moment. Trust them to take care of business in Week 17 in a game that they should win easily.
Bears (vs. Falcons)
It might be difficult to admit, but the Bears have been one of the best teams in the NFL in recent weeks. Chicago’s offense has graduated from abysmal to respectable and their defense has been nothing short of elite, ranking 2nd in EPA/play, 5th in success rate, and 7th in DVOA since Week 13. Meanwhile, the Falcons rank 21st in offensive EPA/play and 20th in offensive success rate while being slightly behind in most defensive metrics compared to the Bears. Chicago has the home field in this matchup, which is likely to allow them to secure another victory.
Eagles (vs. Cardinals)
The Eagles are far from an elite team this season, and the underlying data strongly supports that claim – ranking 12th in offensive EPA/play and 30th in defensive EPA/play across the last four weeks. With that being said, the Cardinals rank 14th in offensive EPA/play and 29th in defensive EPA/play across their last four games and are on the road this weekend in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL. From 2018 to 2022, home teams favored by between 10 and 14 points won 87.4% of their games straight up. Expect Philadelphia to find a way to get a win on Sunday.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
- Week 7: 6-7
- Week 8: 11-5
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 6-8
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 7-6
- Week 14: 5-10
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Image Credit: Getty Images