NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 5
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into the early portion of the 2022 schedule – posting a 40-23-1 (63.5%) record through three weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 108-47-1 (69.7%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. Below, we have our selections for an exciting Week 5 during which favorites should dominate!
2022 NFL Pick’em selections!
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit, ensuring that there was not anyone more prepared to tackle the weekly slate this fall.
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 5 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 5 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. New Orleans Saints
10. New England Patriots
11. Tennessee Titans
12. Dallas Cowboys
13. Baltimore Ravens
14. Cleveland Browns
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Denver Broncos
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 5
Bills (vs. Steelers)
Through four weeks, the Buffalo Bills rank in the top-three in EPA/play on both sides of the ball. In that same time period, the Pittsburgh Steelers rank only 27th in EPA/play on offense and 12th in EPA/play on defense – even after a soft schedule to begin the year, featuring the Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets. In this matchup, the Steelers will be turning to a rookie quarterback, who will be making his first career NFL start. The Bills are not at 100 percent health, and they have flaws – but there are very few, if any, convincing arguments that Buffalo should be on upset alert this weekend.
Chiefs (vs. Raiders)
Since the preseason, I have been saying that this is the best roster that the Kansas City Chiefs have ever put around Patrick Mahomes. This argument only gained more steam after a dominating performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 4. The Chiefs jumped out to a quick 14-3 lead and never looked back in that contest. In Week 5, Kansas City gets to play a Las Vegas Raiders team that they outscored 89-23 in two head-to-head meetings in 2021. Expect Mahomes and company to roll with ease on Monday Night Football to move to 4-1.
49ers (vs. Panthers)
There is little doubt as to whether or not the San Francisco 49ers have the best secondary unit in football. There is absolutely no doubt as to whether the 49ers have the most talented safety tandem in the NFL – they do. Tashaun Gipson Sr. and Talanoa Hufanga have been undeniably elite through four weeks in 2022, allowing an incredulous 29.4 completion percentage when targeted. On Sunday, the 49ers will get to face a Carolina Panthers offense led by Baker Mayfield, who ranks 33rd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play so far this fall. Despite the familiarity factor that comes with all division games, it is difficult to see a path to victory for the Panthers in this spot.
Eagles (vs. Cardinals)
Make no mistake, this is a matchup between one of the most talented teams in the NFL and one of the least talented teams in the league. Despite a double-digit victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 4, there is very little to be optimistic about when looking at the Arizona Cardinals roster. Entering play in Week 5, Arizona ranks dead-last in yards-per-attempt through the air and 19th in yards-per-carry on offense. Defensively, the Cardinals rank 25th in opponent completion percentage, 25th in opponent yards-per-attempt through the air, and 15th in opponent yards-per-carry. Facing a Philadelphia Eagles roster that dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, there is little hope for Arizona on Sunday.
Vikings (vs. Bears)
The Minnesota Vikings continue to play with their food against inferior teams, but they are yet to lose a game this season when they are favored. That trend is unlikely to change in Week 5 when they face the offensively-challenged Chicago Bears. Minnesota has weaknesses, such as their third-down conversion rate and their secondary, but Chicago is not particularly well-equipped to exploit any of those deficiencies. There is some risk here, with the Vikings having to travel across an ocean ahead of this contest after playing in London last Sunday. However, there is not enough risk to take seriously the idea of an upset in this spot.
Image Credit: Imagn