NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight Up Picks Week 7
Through six weeks of action in 2023, we are 58-33 (63.7%) in our NFL pick’em article. Though we have had a disappointing start to the campaign, at least by our standards, there is plenty of time to keep fighting in the standings. In a league as chaotic as the NFL, avoiding horrific weeks is often close to as valuable as maximizing our best weeks. Below, we take a look at Week 7 and offer picks straight up for each game!
In 2021, we led many pick’em participants to championships in their confidence pools with a 181-90-1 (66.8%) season! Last year, we regressed slightly, but rarely missed on our top weekly selections, which meant that a 171-98-3 (63.6%) season was good enough to, once again, win the vast majority of tournaments. Since Week 13, 2021, we have had zero weeks with a sub .500 record on our recommendations in this article.
2023 NFL Pick’em
Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow me on Twitter.
NFL Week 7 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 7 Selections
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Cleveland Browns
6. Miami Dolphins
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Los Angeles Rams
9. Washington Commanders
10. Detroit Lions
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. Chicago Bears
13. Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 7
Bills (vs. Patriots)
The Buffalo Bills are not without their flaws, but they have a great opportunity to secure a win against the New England Patriots in Week 7. Buffalo will once again be without linebacker Matt Milano and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, both of whom are out indefinitely. Yet their absence is more than canceled out by the fact that New England has linebacker Matthew Judon and cornerbacks Jack Jones and Christian Gonzalez each on injured reserve. The Patriots’ defense had the third-lowest pressure rate of any team in the NFL last weekend and the 10th-lowest pressure rate of any team in the league during Week 4. In the Bill Belichick era, New England’s defenses have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, even when they were healthy. This is a mismatch that should result in a Buffalo victory on Sunday.
Chiefs (vs. Chargers)
Through six weeks, it is abundantly clear that the Los Angeles Chargers are once again stuck in NFL purgatory. Entering play in Week 7, Justin Herbert and company rank 11th in offensive success rate and have a 2-4 record. The defense has been underwhelming, ranking 27th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate. On the other side of this matchup, the Kansas City Chiefs have won five consecutive games, with four of those wins coming by at least seven points. Since Travis Kelce returned to near full health in Week 3, the Chiefs offense ranks 4th in EPA/play and 4th in success rate. Following a contract holdout, Chris Jones returned to the Kansas City defense in Week 2 – the unit ranks 2nd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate in that span. There is name appeal on both sides of this matchup, but the Chiefs are the far more talented team and should take care of business in front of their home fans this weekend.
49ers (vs. Vikings)
The San Francisco 49ers could be vulnerable in Week 7, depending on how the injury report shakes out, but if they have their top guys available, this should be their sixth win of the season. Running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, and left tackle Trent Williams were each absent from practice again on Thursday, but there is still optimism that they will be able to take the field on Monday, with an extra day of rest afforded to them. The Minnesota Vikings have been mediocre defensively this fall, ranking 16th in EPA/play and 18th in success rate. Justin Jefferson being put on injured reserve resulted in Kirk Cousins throwing for an anemic 181 passing yards against the Chicago Bears despite that being a favorable matchup through the air. San Francisco is still vastly more talented than Minnesota and should find a way to come away with a win here.
Seahawks (vs. Cardinals)
Despite returning to practice earlier this week, Kyler Murray is still unlikely to play this weekend, reading between the lines from this week’s beat writer reports. Assuming Murray does not play in Week 7, the Seattle Seahawks have a great opportunity to get a win in front of their home fans, facing an Arizona Cardinals team that has only one win so far in 2023. Joshua Dobbs ranks 27th out of 29 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage from a clean pocket, 22nd in yards per attempt, and 23rd in passer rating so far this season. The Seattle defense has allowed the fewest yards per carry of any team in the league through six weeks of action. There are always red flags when division opponents face one another, but the Seahawks are healthier than they were a month ago and have the edge in this spot. Home favorites of at least a touchdown won 82.6% of their games from 2018 to 2022, making Seattle worth a high-confidence pick on Sunday.
Browns (vs. Colts)
Regardless of whether Deshaun Watson takes the field this weekend, the Cleveland Browns deserve to be more than a field goal favorite against the hapless Indianapolis Colts. The Browns’ defense has played at a historic level to begin 2023, leading the league in EPA/play and success rate by astronomical margins through six weeks of football. Gardner Minshew has a dreadful 12.7% turnover-worthy play rate when under pressure so far this year, which means Cleveland’s offense could be set up nicely in short-field situations in Week 7. The Browns should be able to win this contest, even if it takes six field goals to get the job done.
2023 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 11-5
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 9-7
- Week 4: 12-4
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 9-6
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
- Week 18: 9-8
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6