NFL Grind Down: Conference Championship Week

by ohnjz Last Updated 2015-01-21 21:09:38

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers						Seattle Seahawks
Sun – 4:35 PM						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	46.5	19.5				-7.5	46.5	27
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30.1	1	2	12		Offense	25.0	10	17	1
Defense	25.0	10	17	1		Defense	30.1	1	2	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	1	4	1	17		Green Bay Packers	14	15	24	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	156	100	13	1541		Baldwin	102	69	4	863
Cobb	138	99	12	1403		Kearse	72	41	2	666
Adams	77	45	4	563		Richardson	46	30	1	292
Quarless	50	33	4	354		Willson	44	26	4	430

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers gutted out his calf injury to dice the Cowboys for 316 yards and 3 TDs last week, but we should be careful with our optimism that last week’s success will carry over into Sunday’s rematch with the Seahawks. Last time around, Rodgers was just 23/33 for 189 yards with a 1:1 TD/INT ratio. To be fair, he lost his right tackle in that game (who was replaced by a player so bad he ended up being released) and was also playing with a rookie center in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL. Key offensive differences for the Packers this time include the health of the Packers offensive line, and the emergence of rookie #3 WR Davante Adams. The Packers offense is rolling, even with a peg-legged QB at the helm.

Unfortunately now Jolly Rodgers faces what is arguably the NFL’s top defense (#1 overall defense, per Football Outsiders), which just so happens to be playing out of its mind (2nd-fewest FPPG allowed to QBs over last 4 weeks of regular season, w/ just 174 passing yards allowed per game), and just so happens to be playing at home (where they allow the 2nd-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs). And he has to do so with a bum calf. If Rodgers was fully healthy I would seriously consider recommending him as a contrarian tournament stack option, because I think the Packers, at this stage of the season, are one of the only offenses that could knock off the Hawks in Seattle. But mobility is integral to Rodgers game, and despite his success last week, Rodgers looked clearly limited. It didn’t kill him versus a lackluster Cowboys pass rush and secondary… but it will against the Seahawks in Seattle. Avoid Rodgers completely in cash games, and consider overlooking him entirely in this brutal matchup.

WR Jordy Nelson

Jordy was (somehow) held to just 2 catches for 22 yards against the Cowboys last week, which may lead some to believe the Packers’ WR has little to no chance against Richard Sherman and co. this week. If the Packers use Nelson as they did back in Week 1, however, I think he’ll be just fine. Instead of challenging Sherman with Nelson in Week 1, the Packers instead attacked the Hawks #2 CB, Byron Maxwell. Maxwell is an excellent CB (albeit one that nobody hears about), but despite what the final score might have indicated, he was simply no match for Jordy the last time around. Nelson abused Maxwell repeatedly and finished with 9-83 on 14 targets (though Maxwell did haul in a fluky INT on a pass that Jordy tipped into the air). I expect the Packers to go back to what worked for them in Week 1 – quick strikes to Jordy while he’s matched up on Byron Maxwell. He’s a top WR option despite the tough secondary matchup.

WR Randall Cobb

Of course with even the possibility that Jordy could run routes against Richard Sherman, one would assume that Randall Cobb offers the path of least resistance in the passing game this week. That theory was somewhat correct when these teams met in Week 1, as Cobb compiled 6-58-1 on 9 targets. Cobb’s talent and his connection with Rodgers make him basically matchup proof, especially considering he works from the slot; with a gimpy Rodgers already leaning heavily on Cobb for 8-116 last week, Cobb makes for a top WR play this week as the Pack tries to sustain drives and get the ball out quick.

RB Eddie Lacy

Large Lacy cranked out 110 total yards at an impressive 5.4 YPC last week vs the Cowboys, but boy is he in for tough sledding against the Seahawks. Since Week 12, the Hawks have allowed more than 50 rushing yards to RBs just once. Granted, several of those games were against struggling NFC West rushing attacks, but even Lacy himself managed just 34 yards on the ground against this team in Week 1 (on a wimpy 2.8 YPC no less). The chunky Packers RB has come a long way since then, with a second-half surge of 97+ rushing yards in 5 of his last 6 regular-season games (6 of 7 including last week’s playoff win). Ultimately while the Packers have become more efficient on the ground as the season has progressed, I don’t think they’ll be able to punch through this Hawks defense. With most people flocking to the RB on the other side, though, Lacy makes for a contrarian tournament option, albeit with a low floor.

WR Davante Adams

Adams exploded back into relevance with 7-117-1 in last week’s playoff win. Wait, you didn’t see that one coming? That was probably because Adams had compiled just 4 catches for 29 yards in the previous 4 games combined. Yay, playoff football! For all we know, Adams will go ballistic again this week, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Adams has inherited the role held by Jarret Boykin in Week 1, who scored as many fantasy points as you or I did that week thanks to just the threat of coverage from Richard Sherman. Yes, the Packers basically sent Boykin over to Sherman’s side and said, ‘It’s cool, we’ll just use this other half of the field’. The risk of them employing the same tactic with Adams makes him an extremely risky option, even at a bargain price. There’s a chance that the Packers could challenge Sherman with Adams’ athleticism… but why would they?

TE Andrew Quarless / Richard Rodgers

Even if the Packers TEs could all join together a la Voltron, they’d still just be a lumbering bore in green and gold. These guys are generally good for 30-40 yards and a TD between them, and that’s in a good matchup. This week does not qualify. While the Hawks struggled immensely in the TD department when covering TEs early this season – that ain’t the case now:

TDs allowed to TEs (Week 1-9): 10

TDs allowed to TEs (Week 10-17): 1

Could one of the Packers TEs squeak free in the back of the end zone as they seem to do every few weeks? Sure. But that’s basically their ceiling. With just 1 TD allowed since Week 9, and no more than 54 yards allowed in any game since Week 2, the Packers TEs are best ignored this week.

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch

Arguably the top play in this game and a top-2 option among all players in this slate, Marshawn Lynch encounters the fabled RB Holy Trinity this week:

The Holy Trinity came together for the Seahawks against these Packers back in Week 1. The result? 207 rushing yards. Lynch had 110 of them. He also had 2 TDs.

Note: While I think Lynch is the top RB this week, if you’re looking for reason to fade him, here it is. The Pack have made substantial improvements vs the run over the second half of the season – they are allowing nearly 60 fewer rushing yards per game and 1 full YPC less over their last 9 games. They’ve changed their defensive scheme in running situations, using both new personnel and also shifting Clay Matthews to MLB. It’s worked well against teams not named the Cowboys, and could theoretically slow down the Hawks as well. But even if Lynch doesn’t churn out massive yardage totals, he’s still an excellent bet to punch in one or more rushing TDs.

QB Russell Wilson

Wilson draws a tough secondary this week, with the Packers ranking 11th against the pass per Football Outsiders. That, and with most people likely to choose Lynch as their #1 RB this week (and being unlikely to pair an RB with his QB), Wilson may still go a bit under-owned.

Obviously, the X-factor here is Wilson’s running ability, which has often been presented this week alongside highlights of the Packers’ playoff allergy to running QBs (see Kaepernick, Colin). I think the more relevant information is how the Packers have done against mobile QBs this season, which is why that information is in the table below:

While the Packers haven’t struggled to the degree that teams like the Cardinals have against Wilson, there’s at least some room for optimism here. A few TDs, two 40+ yard performances, but really just evidence that a bunch of QBs that like to or tend to get out of the pocket and take off have been able to do so against this defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Clay Matthews attempted to ‘QB Spy’ Wilson this week, but it’s awfully hard to account for and/or gameplan against his improvisation when plays break down. While the Packers secondary can be tough, Wilson’s mobility makes him a high-ceiling tournament play as usual.

WR Doug Baldwin /Jermaine Kearse

Baldwin was a cheap source of 3-38-1 for us last week against the Panthers. Kearse was an even cheaper source of a much bigger 3-129-1 that included a 63-yard TD. Both remain cheap, but neither sees many targets in this run-first-second-and-third attack (Russ only threw 22 passes last week). As usual, the duo have contrasting styles and value in DFS. Baldwin is more of the ‘high floor’ type WR – he works primarily from the slot and often leads the team in catches, but only produces modest yardage and had just 3 TDs in the regular season. Kearse on the other hand is the big-play maven. He’s got a high ceiling, but an awfully low floor New to DFS? That means that while Kearse _could get you 3-129-1 like he did last week (high-ceiling), he could also get you 1-8 like he did against these Packers in Week 1 (low-floor)_. I prefer Baldwin’s matchup against the Packers’ slot coverage more than I do with Kearse on the outside vs CBs Tramon Williams and Sam Shields, but Kearse does have a size advantage (6’1, 209 lbs) and both Packers CBs have been roasted on big plays multiple times this season (don’t mention the name ‘Julio Jones’ when Sam Shields is around). Both Hawks WRs are serviceable salary relief options on this short slate, and are best used according to the game type you’re choosing (i.e. cash game: Baldwin; tournament: Kearse).

TE Luke Willllllllllson

My how far we’ve come. The Packers/Seahawks game was the first game of the season and also my first Grind Down. It was also probably the first time anyone went out on a limb about a certain TE (who made me look silly until about a month ago) in DFS:

“The final punt option in this game is Seahawks #2 TE Luke Willson. Seattle beat writers have Willson pegged as a breakout player this year as the Seahawks primary receiving TE. Willson certainly has the measurables: he’s 6’5, 251 lbs, and runs a 4.51 40. Look for Willson to use his athleticism to challenge the Packers safeties in the middle of the field. He’ll only see a few targets, but I still think he’s the Seattle TE you want to own on Thursday.”

Better late than never, Luke. The ‘other’ Willson is a low-floor/high-ceiling TE play best suited for tournaments this week.

Other Seahawks

WR Kevin Norwood

Rookie Paul Richardson tore his ACL last week. Reports suggest that fellow rookie Kevin Norwood might pick up the slack. Norwood has nice speed and size (6’2, 4.48 40), but we really have no idea what he’s capable of. He’s a low-percentage dart throw.

RB Robert Turbin

Same theory as last week – trying to cash in on a TD in the #2 RB’s limited touches. Turbin had 10+ touches in back-to-back weeks to close the regular season, with Marshawn Lynch having back troubles. He had been seeing ~6 touches per game in the weeks prior.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Indianapolis Colts						New England Patriots
Sun – 8:15 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	53.5	23.25				-7	53.5	30.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	28.2	6	1	22		Offense	29.6	3	5	18
Defense	29.6	3	5	18		Defense	28.2	6	1	22
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	11	18	3	24		Indianapolis Colts	13	21	2	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Hilton	154	92	7	1520		Edelman	148	100	4	1046
Wayne	120	65	2	791		LaFell	126	79	8	1015
Moncrief	60	37	4	530		Amendola	48	32	3	281
Fleener	99	55	8	841		Gronkowski	144	89	13	1232

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

Luck won his rematch with one elite secondary last week and now faces another. The Patriots allowed the ninth-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs this season, including just 16.40 FPPG over their final 4 regular season games. This is what I wrote about the Pats defense in regards to their matchup with the Ravens last week:

“Like their AFC rival Broncos, this Patriots squad is designed to force you into uncomfortable situations. The Belichick Weapon Removal Service, aka Darrelle Revis, neutralizes traditional top WR, funneling more targets/touches toward inferior players, and a combination of Brandon Browner’s heavy-handed press and safety coverage rolled over the top eliminates other targets or players the Pats feel won’t handle press man well. A resurgent run defense forces teams into more difficult conversions. So you might think the Pats must be ‘weak’ at LB then, right? Donta Hightower and Jamie Collins he #2 and #3 highest graded ILBs on PFF, and excel in both run defense and pass rush, as well as being effective cover men (Collins coverage is mentioned above). They, combined with pass-rusher Chandler Jones and ‘motor’ guy Rob Ninkovich, should feast on the reshuffled Ravens offensive line (particularly replacement atrocity LT James Hurst) and seriously limit Flacco’s ability to get balls downfield.”

I then implied that playing Joe Flacco would be stupid. Of course, he then bombed the Pats for 4 TDs (yay, playoff football!). Could Luck do the same? Sure he could. He went 23/39 for 2 TDs and 1 INT against these Pats back in Week 11, albeit in a losing effort. The 39 passes are the key for us; as I mention every week, it’s Luck’s immense passing volume that makes him an elite DFS option on a weekly basis, often regardless of matchup. It’s awfully tough to ignore a guy who threw 39 or more passes ten times during the regular season (including the last game vs the Pats) – he seems to reach 300 yards and 2 TDs almost by default (i.e. 9/10 times he threw 39+ passes). So while his matchup is awfully tough on paper, all 4 QBs have tough matchups this week, and we can’t confidently project similar opportunities for the others that we can for Luck. He’s and Tom Brady are Options 1A and 1B this week.

WR TY Hilton

When perusing the interwebs for tidbits about the Colts/Pats matchup this week, I came across this gem…on Darrelle Revis’ Instagram account.

Any guesses who Revis might be covering this week?

Revis didn’t acknowledge that the pic meant he was covering Hilton this weekend, but he didn’t deny it, either. But let’s leave DFS TMZ-land now and look at the situation logically: who else is Revis going to cover? Reggie Wayne was last seen on the set of the next Dawn of the Dead movie. Coby Fleener is too big. Trent Richardson is on punt protection. I guess they could stick Revis on Donte Moncrief, but I think the Pats would rather stick their best defensive playmaker on the Colts best offensive playmaker, don’t you?

If Revis is indeed on Hilton, that makes him a very risky play in DFS this week. That much is obvious. So obvious that most people won’t play Hilton. I’ve maintained that Hilton is almost uncoverable in this offense at this point, and it’s not too crazy to think he could get loose from Revis (who has actually been beaten a few times on deep shots this season, only to be bailed out by poor throws) once or twice, or wind up in the coverage of a lesser Pats CB. All it takes is one play with Hilton. He’s a risky but high-ceiling contrarian tournament play.

RB BOOM Herron

After never seeing more than 15 touches over the Colts final five regular season games, Herron saw his touches BOOM to 31 last week, with 23-63-1 on the ground and a Forte-sian (or is it Bell-ian now?) 8-32 through the air. He’s Ahmad Bradshaw 2.0. Unfortunately, he’s running up against an awfully tough Patriots defense that isn’t as middle-of-the-road against RBs as its DVP suggests (17th-most FPPG to RBs on the season). Excluding Week 17, where the Pats pulled many of their defensive starters after 50-65% of the snaps, the Patriots have allowed just 67.7 rushing yards and the FOURTH fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. Considering that the Colts haven’t exactly paved the way with their run-blocking of late (Herron had just 2.7 YPC last week vs Broncos), I’m not convinced that Herron will find room on the ground here. Yes, the Pats were gashed by Justin Forsett last week… but the Ravens have one of the best run-blocking lines in the NFL and Forsett was the NFL leader in YPC this season. The Colts’ run game couldn’t be more different. The value for Herron this week, as in recent weeks, has been his completely obnoxious role in the receiving game. Herron has EIGHTEEN catches over his last TWO games. Andrew Luck always looks to his checkdown when his firsts reads are covered – considering last week’s 8 catches came against a Broncos team with a similar lockdown secondary, we should again see high target numbers for Herron out of the backfield. That gives him a high floor, especially on full-PPR sites, and again locks him in as the premier value RB.

TE Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen

If any DFS sites let you roster ‘Colts TE’ last week, you were rewarded with a solid 7-79-1. Unfortunately, if you had to choose one TE or the other, you ended up with either 4-30-1 (Allen) or 3-49 (Fleener). As usual, Allen got the TD and Fleener got more yards. While it might be tempting to immediately roll out Coby Fleener this week, considering he bombed the Pats for 7-144 back in Week 11, keep in mind that Dwayne Allen was out then. Now not only are the targets going to be split, but I sincerely doubt that the Pats will go back to the same coverage (Brandon Browner) that Fleener burnt up last time. The Pats do have strong coverage LBs, so it will be interesting to see how their defense adjusts to the two-TE threat of the Colts considering they’re likely to be shadowing with one or more CBs. Either Colts TE is just a risky tournament stab this week.

WR Donte Moncrief

The bad Moncrief was back again last week, and really made us wonder… did he ever really leave? Moncrief turned his 8 targets into just 2 catches for 32 yards against the Broncos. It seems like he’s good for a big play every 3-4 weeks. We might be out of luck this season, especially considering the tough secondary he’ll be facing this week. It’s not clear yet who Moncrief’s coverage will be, but if Revis does indeed shadow TY Hilton, then I would assume Brandon Browner will man up Moncrief. At first glance, it looks like the Pats coverage of Moncrief was pretty effective in Week 11: he was held to 0 catches for 0 yards. However, he did torch Browner on his lone target, and for all of Browner’s physicality, once WRs blow by him, he either has to commit a penalty or just give up a big play. As usual, there’s big-play upside with Moncrief, but until he plays with consistency we need to acknowledge that his theoretically high ceiling has a low chance of coming through, and is accompanied by an extremely low floor.

Other Colts

RB Trent Richardson

T-Rich is a MUST play in league’s that give points for punt protection.

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

• Step 1: Insert Gronk into your lineup
• Step 2: Profit

QB Tom Brady

Brady somehow survived the Ravens’ pass rush last week, and then proceeded to undress them for 367 yards and 3 TDs (with 1 INT), completing 66% of his whopping 50 pass attempts. Doing the same to the Colts won’t be as simple, as they sport the NFL’s tenth-best pass defense, per Football Outsiders. The Colts just neutralized the Broncos passing attack, but I do worry that their best defensive weapon (CB Vontae Davis) should have little effect on Tom Brady’s top weapon (Gronk). I think that there are enough individual matchups working in the Patriots’ favor that their passing attack shouldn’t be too stung by having Brandon LaFell eliminated by Vontae Davis. The biggest detriment to Brady’s DFS value might be a part of his own offense – the running game. Back in Week 11, Brady went for 257-2-2, but ultimately didn’t need to do as much as the run game steamrolled for 200+ yards and 4 TDs. I’m not sure why the Patriots would need a different gameplan this time around. Brady will still get his, as Gronk should feast on Colts S Laron Landry, and I don’t anticipate the pass rush being a problem. But ultimately I think Brady’s ceiling is capped by the possibility of an effective high-volume running game. Brady is a strong cash game QB in this slate, but both underdog QBs and dual-threat Russell Wilson likely offer more tournament upside this week.

WR Julian Edelman

Edelman was one of the stars of Week 19, posting 125 all-purpose yards and a TD. And by 125 ‘all-purpose yards’, what I really mean is 8-74 receiving, and a 51-yard TD throw to Danny Amendola. You read that right — If you didn’t know, now you know. While I’m not going to start factoring passing yards into Edelman’s projections just yet, he is without a doubt the Patriots WR in the best situation this week. Unlike Brandon LaFell, who will draw Vontae Davis on roughly 50% of his snaps, Edelman will split most of his time between the outside (opposite LaFell) and the slot. Outside he’ll mainly see beatable CB Greg Toler (whom we often picked on earlier in the season), and when he kicks into the slot he’ll draw Darius Butler. Neither matchup presents nearly the risk that Vontae Davis does, and should mean Edelman is a preferred option as usual. He’s a high-floor play ideal for full-PPR sites.

WR Brandon LaFell

As mentioned above, LaFell should run about 50% of his routes in the coverage of shutdown CB Vontae Davis, making him an extremely risky play this week.

Of course, that means he’ll also run 50% of his routes against not-Vontae Davis…

WR Danny Amendola

Amendola has seemingly risen from the grave of late, with 8-63 and 4-24 in the final two games of the regular season, and a 5-81-2 explosion last week vs the Ravens. He’s still no better than the fourth option in the Patriots passing attack, primarily working out of the slot, but could see extra looks as Tom Brady attempts to avoid Vontae Davis. He’s in play as a salary relief WR on full-PPR sites.

Patriots RBs, aka How to Raise Your Blood Pressure

First, a brief history lesson:

Great Moments in Patriots RBs vs Colts History

— (2014) Week 14: RB Jonas Gray stampedes for 201 rushing yards and 4 TDs
— (2013) Playoffs: RB LeGarrette Blount: stampedes for 166 rushing yards and 4 TDs

It seems very likely that given the Colts’ recent weakness against the run, especially vs the scheming of the Patriots both this season and in last year’s playoffs, that the Patriots will again use a high-volume running scheme with their power backs: LeGarrette Blount and/or Jonas Gray. Unfortunately, even if the Patriots indeed do try to smash the Colts via the run… we don’t know which RB they will use. Blount has been used more than Gray ever since the rookie fell out of favor, but we simply can’t know which way the Patriots will lean. Keep in mind also that Colts’ players have been quoted as saying they never want Week 11 (the Jonas Gray game) to happen to them again. With their personnel, I’m not sure they can prevent it even if they want to, but there’s little doubt that the Colts will enter the game with heavy focus on run defense. Unless we hear more about the way the Patriots are leaning with their RB committee, I would only use Blount or Gray in tournament play – you don’t want to take on such unnecessary risk in cash games. Several reports are calling for a big performance from Blount; he’s the one I would prefer if forced to choose. And as we’ve seen before when these teams meet – if you choose the RB correctly, the results can be massive.

One angle that many may overlook given the obvious running game narratives between the Patriots and Colts is the role of receiving back Shane Vereen. Vereen has seen very limited work on the ground this season (10+ carries just twice), and has been marginalized since the emergence of Blount, but still maintains a role in the passing game. Vereen presents a matchup problem for this Colts team, who allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game to RBs during the regular season. Even with Jonas Gray’s crazy performance in Week 11, Vereen still managed 77 total yards of his own on 5 touches: 4-59 came through the air. On full PPR sites especially, Vereen makes for a sneaky pivot play if you aren’t buying the ‘BLOUNT SMASH’ narrative this week.

Patriots RB Summary
•LeGarrette Blount: Primary power back. Playoff experience w/ Patriots. Expected to be lead back this week.

•Jonas Gray: Alternative power back. Responsible for the smashing in Week 11, but has hardly been heard from since. Unless we hear otherwise, consider him lower on the totem pole than Blount

•Shane Vereen: Receiving back. Indy struggles defending pass-catching RBs, so he could be an interesting pivot from Blount

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me @ohnjz, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!