NFL Grind Down (TNF): DEN vs. SD

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-24 00:37:20

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

San Diego Chargers						Denver Broncos
Thu – 8:25 PM						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	51	21.75				-7.5	51	29.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.3	9	3	31		Offense	31.5	1	1	22
Defense	31.5	1	1	22		Defense	26.3	9	3	31
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	26	11	14	18		San Diego Chargers	14	18	5	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	51	34	0	354		Thomas	64	39	6	662
Floyd	32	20	3	412		Welker	22	17	1	176
Royal	39	23	5	345		Sanders	51	38	1	514
Gates	41	27	7	363		Thomas	36	28	9	304

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total and 2 prolific offenses = fantasy goodness
•Chargers secondary banged up at worst possible time = upgrade Broncos passing attack
•Chargers will try to choke the clock with the run game

San Diego Chargers

QB Philip Rivers

Rivers’ struggles against the Kansas City Chiefs pass-rush last week form an interesting backdrop for his Week 8 clash with the Broncos. The Chargers poor pass-blocking finally caught up with Rivers last week, as the Chiefs edge-rush consistently disrupted his throw point and held him to 205 yards and a 54.8% completion percentage. He was just 2/9 for 22 yards when pressured. Box score readers have no idea that Rivers has been under such constant duress this season because he’s been absolutely lethal downfield. But the Chargers offensive line has the 5th-worst pass-blocking grade on Pro Football Focus, and they’re on their 4th center of the year. The line is built to bulldoze in the run game, and can be deconstructed by a consistent pass-rush. Which brings us to the problem(s) at hand: Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and the high-pressure Broncos defense. Miller and Ware are up to 17 combined sacks on the season and basically dismantled the 49ers passing attack last week with a combined 5 sacks and 4 hurries. Keep an eye on RT DJ Fluker, who has given up the 5th-most QB hurries among qualifying offensive tackles and should, frankly, be unwound by Von Miller. It doesn’t make for a favorable spot for Mr Rivers… BUT Vegas does anticipate quite a bit of scoring from the Chargers.

The theory behind taking Rivers would be that the Chargers get smacked early, and he’s forced to throw (and score) often. Of course, that was also the theory behind taking Kaepernick and Co last week, and I implored people to avoid that foolishness. It makes very little sense to me adopting that strategy against this defense, which is uniquely capable vs the pass in coverage and rush, and can also stone the run. You’re playing with fire if you take Rivers this week, but if there’s one QB that seems like he bathes in a pressure cooker, it’s Captain Bolo Tie.

TE Antonio Gates

I think Antonio Gates is the Chargers best skill position option this week. Gates has played the role of Giant-Killer this year, dropping 3 TDs on the Seahawks – will he be the catalyst for another Chargers upset this week? The matchup sheds light on this possibility, as the Broncos have struggled keeping track of TEs, having allowed at least 7 catches and 78 yards in 3 of 6 games thus far; they currently allow the 5th-most receptions per game to the position. The reason? The one personnel weakness of the Denver defense is their banged up linebacker corps, which features pedestrian talents in the wake of injuries, including the recent re-injury to LB stalwart Danny Trevathan. Last week Vernon Davis wasn’t able to exploit this weakness in the box score, but he did have a horrible drop on a 30+ yard pass in which he beat his LB cover with ease. Expect the Chargers to run similar route combinations as they did vs the Seahawks, designed to clear out space for Gates and match him up on these beatable Broncos CBs. Gates is my top Chargers play this week.

RB Branden Oliver

Oliver’s box score last week (just 78 total yards) was unfortunate, but I assure you that Oliver was his usual electric pinball blend of agility and power; the Chargers just got a heavy dose of their own clock-killing medicine last week, which limited Oliver’s touches. Even though I love Oliver’s skillset and fit in the Chargers offense, it’s hard to wholeheartedly recommend him this week: the Broncos allow just 51.7 rushing yards per game to RBs (fewest in the NFL) and have the 3rd-best team run defense grade on PFF. The Chargers will look to emulate their 2013 success vs the Broncos by controlling possession, so Oliver will at least have the gameplan working in his favor so long as the Chargers remain close. I would only target Oliver as a GPP RB if you think the Chargers will pull the upset here. Otherwise the matchup makes him too risky to lock into your early lineups this week.

Chargers WRs

Be cautious targeting Chargers WRs this week. While Denver currently appears like a mid-range matchup vs WRs (14th fewest FPPG allowed), their bookend elite corners have the potential to completely shut down outside WRs Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd. I don’t see this as Keenan Allen’s breakout game, as he’s been having trouble separating as is and now faces the sticky coverage of CBs Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. If anything, perhaps this profiles as an Eddie Royal game, as the Johnny-on-the-spot slot man tests rookie CB Bradley Roby. Take solace in the fact that Vegas anticipates compensatory scoring from the Chargers… but know that the Chargers WRs are even more of a dice roll this week than they are normally.

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning

So apparently Peyton set some kind of record last week? Based on the media coverage I had no idea.

Kidding aside, for our purposes it’s worth pointing out just how dominant Peyton was last week because the Broncos offense is on quite the roll. Manning finished with an elite 318 yards and 4 TDS, and completed nearly 85% of his passes, which is completely obnoxious considering 2 of the incompletions were drops (so his completion % could have been over 92%). Remember, this was against the defense ranked as the top coverage unit in the NFL (though admittedly due for regression and vulnerable due to injury). Manning specifically went to work on the void left by the absence of All-World LBs Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman, and was a perfect 8/8 for 97 yards targeting their LB replacements. The Manning Defensive-Ranking-Destroyer faces the 5th-ranked coverage unit this week, and will certainly eviscerate them. The Chargers, like the 49ers last week, are dealing with crucial injuries at the worst possible time, with their top 2 CBs likely out this week. The impact will be immense: Brandon Flowers is playing as good as any CB in the NFL (2nd-highest CB grade on PFF) and rookie CB Jason Verrett isn’t far behind him (4th-highest CB grade). Their replacements are atrocious (read on to find out more). Manning is a high-floor, high-ceiling option this week as the top overall QB play, and an excellent anchor for your Thursday lineups if you want to pay up at QB.

Broncos WRs

The Broncos WR analysis has evolved to necessitate a disclaimer that they are all basically matchup proof, and make for solid options across all game types given the consistent and prolific Broncos passing attack. So although the Chargers have allowed the 5th-fewest FPPG to WRs, they will be horribly overmatched in this game. And as I mentioned above, they will also likely be without their top 2 CBs. This presents 2 especially dangerous mismatches against probable replacements Shareece Wright and Richard Marshall. Both were sneaky targets in DFS last season – Wright had the 6th-worst coverage grade of all CBs last season, and Marshall had the 9th-worst grade. This will affect both outside and slot receivers, so Demaryius Thomas’s upside will be in the stratosphere, and Wes Welker could make for an especially sneaky play this week as his price has yet to see a significant bump. You can’t go wrong with Broncos WRs this week.

TE Julius Thomas

There were reports of pigs flying in Denver last week as Orange Julius shockingly DIDN’T score a TD vs the 49ers. I think that means we have a NARRATIVE STREET ALERT this week as it’s becoming a weekly occurrence that last week’s forgotten become this week’s heroes in the Broncos offense. Adding further intrigue to Thomas this week is a seemingly imposing matchup with a Chargers defense that allows the fewest FPPG to TEs. The matchup will hopefully suppress Thomas’ ownership percentage a tad, but don’t be scared! Considering the Chargers defensive ranking is fueled by matchups with The Cardinals, Seahawks, and Jets, we should be expecting regression vs the TE starting… shortly after Peyton gets the ball on Thursday. Orange Julius is an elite TE play this week.

RB Ronnie Hillman

Hillman was pretty impressive last week, racking up 103 total yards and 2 TDs against a tough 49ers run defense. He looked surprisingly elusive and has done no wrong since getting his shot at the lead RB role; he should continue to get the majority of carries against a middle-of-the-pack Chargers run defense that allows the 15th-most FPPG to RBs. His salary has not fully corrected to the continued high volume and production within the Denver offense, making him a solid value as a #2 RB this week.