NFL Grind Down (TNF): MIA vs. BUF
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
| Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thu – 8:25 PM | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 42 | 18.5 | -5 | 42 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.2 | 23 | 15 | 28 | Offense | 25.2 | 11 | 19 | 12 | |
| Defense | 25.2 | 11 | 19 | 12 | Defense | 21.2 | 23 | 15 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 2 | 15 | 7 | 7 | Buffalo Bills | 5 | 3 | 18 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 77 | 42 | 5 | 617 | Wallace | 75 | 40 | 6 | 519 | |
| Woods | 59 | 34 | 2 | 346 | Hartline | 43 | 26 | 1 | 266 | |
| Hogan | 22 | 18 | 2 | 233 | Landry | 50 | 37 | 2 | 354 | |
| Chandler | 42 | 26 | 1 | 307 | Clay | 52 | 34 | 2 | 315 | |
Quick Grind
•Low Vegas total reflects likely slugfest between two top defenses
•Limited appeal: If you’re playing Thursday slates, consider fading this game entirely
| Core Plays: | None |
| Secondary Plays: | BUF WR Sammy Watkins, MIA WR Mike Wallace |
| GPP Plays: | MIA TE Charles Clay, MIA WR Jarvis Landry, MIA QB Ryan Tannehill |
| Salary Relief: | BUF RB Fred Jackson & Bryce Brown, MIA WR Jarvis Landry |
Buffalo Bills
WR Sammy Watkins
Watkins is at the top of a very, very short list of relevant plays for the Thursday game. The dynamic rookie is coming off a quiet Week 10, in which he managed just 4 catches for 27 yards — despite a team-high 10 targets. The encouraging part is that he made it through the game without aggravating the groin injury that put his playing status in doubt last week. He’s probable for Thursday, suggesting it should be business as usual for the Bill lone playmaker. Of course, Watkins broke out for 8 catches, 117 yards, and 1 TD against this very same defense back in Week 2. I wouldn’t simply expect a similar showing this time around, however, as the Dolphins used a bizarre game plan of soft zone coverage in Week 2 (Watkins diced them up, of course). He should see much more direct coverage from CB Brent Grimes this week, especially considering CB Cortland Finnegan is out. Remember, even though the Dolphins gave up solid lines to both Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate last week, they’re still allowing just the 5th-fewest FPPG to WRs, and grade as the 4th-best coverage unit on Pro Football Focus. If you’re taking plays from this game, I think Watkins is the clear top option, but there’s risk here with the matchup.
The Bills Replacement RBs
The Bills RBs face their third straight rough matchup this week, as the Dolphins allow just 84.5 rushing yards per game (10th-stingiest) and grade out as the 8th-best run defense. Even if the Bills had a single RB who would receive most of the touches, they still wouldn’t be an advised play against this defense. Unfortunately, the Bills now have three healthy RBs. Last week, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown basically split the actual carries, while Brown and Fred Jackson handled the passing work. Brown led the trio in yards and touches (13 touches, 100 total yards), and was also the RB-of-choice in the red-zone and with the game on the line. I think Fred Jackson will slowly chew into Brown’s touches as he gets healthier, but if forced to roster a Bills RB, I think the versatility and big play potential of Bryce Brown is hard to ignore. Brown is a tournament-only play this week.
Miami Dolphins
WR Mike Wallace
The Dolphins offense predictably stalled out last week vs the Lions elite defense, but Mike Wallace still rung up 5 catches for 51 yards and a TD. A modest showing, for sure, but oddly that’s pretty much what he’s been giving us each week, including a nearly identical 5 catch, 56 yard, 1 TD effort against this same Bills defense back in Week 2. Although the Bills boast an elite defense, their CBs have been touched up on several occasions by #1 WRs, and as a whole the Bills allow the 10th-most FPPG to WRs. Wallace is a top-20 WR option this week.
QB Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill followed up his best game of the season in Week 9 with his worst in Week 10, as Ndamakong Suh and the Lions demolished the Dolphins offensive line and stymied both the run and pass from the get-go. And while I’m sure the Dolphins would love to simply move on from last week’s offensive disaster, they’ve instead been tasked with shuffling their offensive line thanks to a season-ending injury to LT Branden Albert. So, just a few days after being terrorized by one of the top defensive lines in the NFL, the Dolphins now face another one of the top defensive lines in the NFL, this time without their top offensive lineman. It’s not a situation that inspires much confidence.
Outside of a 364 yard, 4 TD game from some guy named Tom Brady, the Bills defense hasn’t been very generous to opposing QBs, either. You have to go all the way back to Week 4 to find a non-Brady QB who accumulated over 230 yards, and back to Week 3 to find one who threw more than 1 TD. Tannehill himself was limited to 241-1-1 back in Week 2. The Dolphins offense has found its rhythm since then, but the loss of Branden Albert could send them into complete disarray vs such a dominant defensive front. There’s a lot of risk here, making Tannehill a tournament-only play this week.
Dolphins RBs
I warned against using #1 RB Lamar Miller last week due to both matchup and injury concerns, and Miller managed just 6 total yards on 5 touches. Miller also seemed to re-injure his shoulder during the game, and was basically just replaced by Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas afterwards. I would avoid Miller again this week – it’s a short week, a tough matchup, and the Dolphins are unlikely to risk re-injury by giving him a large workload. The most DFS-friendly Dolphins RB this week is probably Damien Williams, who looked somewhat impressive on limited carries last week, and was also effective in the receiving game (3 catches, 27 yards). But given the matchup and uncertain workload, I would avoid the Dolphins RBs entirely this week.