NFL Grind Down: Turkey Day Edition

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-29 15:54:08

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

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Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Chicago Bears						Detroit Lions
Thu – 12:30 PM						Ford Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	47	20				-7	47	27
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.5	19	11	24		Offense	17.9	28	19	27
Defense	17.9	28	19	27		Defense	21.5	19	11	24
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	1	10	4	13		Chicago Bears	31	12	16	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Marshall	91	52	8	618		Johnson	74	38	3	578
Jeffery	94	58	5	783		Tate	105	72	3	1047
Wilson	7	3	0	21		Ross	28	20	1	239
Bennett	82	57	5	628		Pettigrew	14	9	0	68

Quick Grind

•Which inconsistent offense will get back on track?
•All signs point to a Calvin Johnson explosion
•Use caution targeting Bears players against the elite Lions defense

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte

We have some tough choices to make at RB this week. Although there are multiple elite RBs to choose from – most have pretty tough matchups. Matt Forte is no exception. Coming off a 112 total yard, 2 TD performance vs the Bucs, Forte now must navigate a Lions defense allowing just 64.4 rushing yards per game to RBs, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL. Prior to being bruised for 78 yards and 2 TDs by LeGarrette Blount last week, the Lions defense hadn’t allowed more than 66 total yards to an individual RB since Week 6. They still grade out as the 2nd-best run-defense unit on Pro Football Focus. The Lions strength vs the run forces opponents into passing situations, and has allowed opposing RBs to pad their stats through the air: the Lions allow the 6th-most receptions per game and 5th-most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs. This plays to the strengths of Forte, who already has a ridiculous 72 receptions this season, and has caught 5 or more passes in all but one game this season. Forte’s receiving averages are pretty eerily similar to what the Lions are already allowing:

A 6-catch, 50+ receiving yard floor besides any rushing is what keeps Forte in play despite the matchup. Ultimately though it’s tough to justify paying up for Forte this week given his stonewall matchup, and the elite alternatives at the RB position.

WR Brandon Marshall

Just when we thought Brandon Marshall might be hitting his stride after gutting defenses for 15-212-3 over his last two games, the mercurial WR managed a lackadaisical 3-32 against the Bucs. The matchups don’t get much friendlier than what Marshall saw last week, and now he gets a date with the defense allowing the fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. The silver lining here is that the one weakness in the Lions pass defense is found in their revolving-door slot coverage. Marshall has been a terror in the slot at times this season, and should be a popular target this week. Marshall’s volatility makes him better suited for tournament play, but there’s no denying the upside of his matchup this week. He’s a top-3 WR play on Turkey Day.

WR Alshon Jeffery

Jeffery also had a quiet Week 12 despite a favorable matchup, turning a measly 4 targets into 3-22-1 vs the Bucs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeffery takes a backseat to Marshall in the game plan this week, as the Lions outside CB duo of Darius Slay and Rashean Mathis have been strong against outside WRs this season. Jeffery did haul in 4 of 6 passes in Slay’s coverage last season (for 46 yards and a TD) this ain’t the 2013 Lions. Alshon has heaps of upside this week, but is risky due to his volatile QB and the tough matchup in coverage. He’s a tournament-specific WR play.

TE Martellus Bennett

Bennett surprisingly saw more targets than both Marshall and Jeffery last week, but still wasn’t able to make an impact. This week he’ll face a Lions defense that had been stout against opposing TEs until the Patriots came along; thought the Lions held Gronk to just 78 yards, they also coughed up another 36 yards and 2 TDs to his TE partner Tim Wright. Bennett himself stretched this Lions defense for 8-90 in one of their 2013 clashes. The risk with Bennett is that he (again) takes a backseat to the big-name WRs, but on a slate with basically nothing at TE, Bennett emerges as a top option.

QB Jay Cutler

If you haven’t gathered by now, there wasn’t much to the Bears passing attack last week. Cutler did manage to break his 4 game streak of throwing at least one INT… but he also collected just 130 yards through the air. The gunslinger now goes from facing the defense allowing the 6th-most FPPG to opposing QBs, to facing the defense allowing the LEAST. The Lions also grade out as the league’s 7th-best pass-rushing unit, per PFF. I don’t like Cutler’s chances. With other QBs available who have more favorable matchups, Cutler is simply too risky for anything but contrarian tournament lineups this week.

Detroit Lions

WR Calvin Johnson

I know, I know: Calvin was held down again last week by the Patriots. He’s about to make it up to you. Don’t believe me? Have you SEEN what monstrous WRs have been doing to this defense?

It seems as though there’s a trend emerging here – and Megatron is about to add to it. He is the top WR on Turkey Day.

QB Matt Stafford

Stafford has been arguably even more disappointing than his All-World WR this season. Thankfully nothing turns a season around quite like a date with the defense that gave up 669 passing yards and 11 TDs over a 2-game span a few weeks ago, and is now allowing the 5th-most FPPG to QBs. While I’d still consider both QBs in the Eagles/Cowboys game safer than Stafford, the Lions QB is still an excellent high-upside alternative for tournaments.

WR Golden Tate

Tate followed up Week 11’s stellar 11-109 effort with an unrelenting 4-97 vs the Patriots last week. He has been the only productive member of the Lions passing attack the past few weeks, and should continue to see success this week against the Bears no-name slot coverage. This week’s featured slot punching bag is Demontre Hurst. Hurst has seen slot work in 6 games for the Bears, and even in limited snaps has managed to allow 18 catches for 319 yards and a TD; he has no chance against Tate. Tate’s price remains high, but his matchup and likely low ownership make him an ideal tournament pivot.

Detroit RB City

Injury Update: RB Reggie Bush is NOT expected to play on Thursday

It looks like we’re back to a full-house at RB this week, with Reggie Bush declaring he’ll be able to play on Thursday. Bush’s return will likely squash the value of replacement passing-down RB Theo Riddick, while Bush himself will be no more than a tournament long-shot. Joique Bell will still handle the between-the-tackles and early down work as usual – he isn’t a compelling option against a Bears squad that allows the 13th-fewest FPPG to RBs and is so easily exploited through the air. Use Bell as a salary relief RB that will allow you flexibility elsewhere.

TE Eric Ebron

If you’re looking for a bizarre play from this game, TE Eric Ebron is a low-end matchup play. The Bears allow the MOST FPPG to opposing TEs, though that ranking is fueled mainly by Gronk’s 149-yard, 3-TD demolishing back in Week 8. Nonetheless, the middle of the Bears defense can be attacked. Ebron has done literally nothing this season, but he offers significant salary relief at an already weak position.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles						Dallas Cowboys
Thu – 4:30 PM						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	54.5	25.75				-3	54.5	28.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.1	3	9	12		Offense	26.5	7	7	5
Defense	26.5	7	7	5		Defense	31.1	3	9	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	12	13	3	31		Philadelphia Eagles	29	20	31	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Maclin	109	63	9	980		Bryant	103	63	10	879
Cooper	68	39	1	425		Williams	50	28	6	444
Matthews	77	50	6	635		Beasley	23	18	1	209
Celek	41	25	0	265		Witten	63	43	4	461

Quick Grind

•Top Turkey Day game to target
•Stack either passing attack
•Tough matchup for the Cowboys run game

Philadelphia Eagles

RB LeSean McCoy

He finally did it… sort of. Shady’s 130 rushing yards vs the Titans last week don’t tell the whole story, but it was at least encouraging to see the Eagles find some success on the ground. With the Cowboys allowing 105 rushing yards per game to RBs – a similar performance on Thursday wouldn’t be that surprising. The Cowboys have played misleading run defense all season (hiding their defensive vulnerabilities with their own clock-killing running game), but have been bruised by opposing RBs both on the ground and through the air in recent weeks. The last 3 #1 RBs to face the Cowboys have combined for 324 total yards and 3 TDs. Shady is a high floor play this week thanks to his consistently high volume of touches (20+ in 6 of last 7 games). Roster him as a high-end #2 RB.

QB Mark Sanchez

Sanchez hasn’t been perfect the past few weeks – he threw a pair of INTs for the 2nd straight game last week – but he continues to pile up passing volume and the yards that come with it. This week Sanchez and the Chip Kelly Machine take aim at a vulnerable Cowboys defense that just gave up 338 yards and 3 TDs to Eli Manning and the Giants. Vegas expects a high-scoring affair for both sides, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Sanchez to blast away. The sheer volume of attempts Sanchez should see makes him one of the top few QBs to target on Turkey Day.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Maclin hasn’t been seeing the absurd number of targets he was with Nick Foles at the helm, but is still producing admirably when accurate throws come his way. The change in opportunities and the volatile accuracy of his new QB has made Maclin more of a tournament-specific play than reliable core option. The matchup seems tough this week (Cowboys allowing the 4th-fewest FPPG to WRs), but keep in mind that the Cowboys were just eviscerated by Odell Beckham Jr and Eli Manning last week. Maclin has heaps of upside given the matchup, but considering his inconsistency of late you should first look to the other elite WRs instead for your cash games.

WR Jordan Matthews

With his third straight solid performance, Matthews continues to solidify his role as a vital cog in the Eagles passing attack – and as a consistent DFS WR. This week Matthews draws a tough slot assignment for the third straight week, but as I reassure you every time, the individual matchup becomes largely irrelevant since Eagles HC Chip Kelly will scheme Matthews into favorable scenarios. This gives Matthews a safe floor and makes him an ideal complementary WR on this short slate.

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray

Murray continued his rushing rampage last week with 121 rushing yards and 5+ YPC against the Giants. He is just nearly impossible to contain. There’s some reason to believe the Eagles at least MIGHT stand a chance of bottling Murray up this week though: the Eagles grade out as the 7th-best run-defense unit on PFF, and have repeatedly stifled opposing RBs on the ground. It should be a fascinating matchup to watch, but for our purposes we should still consider Murray the top Turkey Day RB. His violently efficient running and consistent role in the passing game allow him to churn out massive yardage even in tough matchups. Murray is an ideal core play to start your Thursday lineups with.

WR Dez Bryant

Dez extended his TD streak to 4 games with his 7-86-2 vs the Giants last week. Dez now has 13-244-4 in his last 2 games and looks invincible with the ball in his hands. That doesn’t bode well for the Eagles poor outside CBs that we love to target. The Eagles already allow the 5th-most FPPG to WRs, a number I would expect to increase once Dez is done with them. Dez is a top-2 WR on Turkey Day.

QB Tony Romo

Romo is coming off a 275-yard, 4 TD masterpiece against the Giants and now should get a pace and volume bump from playing the Eagles. There are very few QBs this bump HASN’T helped out, with 4 of the last 5 QBs to face the Eagles throwing for 300+ yards, and all but ONE QB throwing for at least 2 TDs. The shootout atmosphere suggested by the game’s Vegas line further emphasizes the upside Romo has here, especially considering he may be forced to throw more than he has all season. Romo is arguably the top Turkey Day QB.

TE Jason Witten

Witten isn’t an exciting option, but he’s been awfully consistent over the last month, with either a TD or 60+ receiving yards in each of his last 4 games. The Eagles have suddenly forgotten how to cover TEs and have allowed at least 119 yards in 2 of the last 3 games. Witten is more run-blocker than receiver at this point, but he could sneak free a few times as this defense focuses on spotlighting the Cowboys playmakers. Witten is up there with Martellus Bennett as the top TE of the Thursday slate, but doesn’t offer much upside.

WR Terrance Williams

After hitting 1-2 big plays per game for the first several weeks of the season, Terrance Williams has seen serious regression lately. He has 19 or less receiving yards in 4 of his past 5 games, and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 7. Williams hauled in just one catch for 18 yards last week, and also managed to break a fingertip. He’s a risky tournament-only WR.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks						San Francisco 49ers
Thu – 8:30 PM						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	39.5	19.25				-1	39.5	20.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.4	11	24	1		Offense	20.7	21	16	16
Defense	20.7	21	16	16		Defense	25.4	11	24	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	3	3	15	18		Seattle Seahawks	4	15	1	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	66	46	2	491		Crabtree	83	48	4	567
Kearse	50	26	1	380		Boldin	95	65	4	825
Lockette	12	8	2	171		Johnson	42	32	3	407
Willson	24	12	1	151		Davis	39	21	2	197

Quick Grind

•Vegas expects a low-scoring, defensive clash – avoid this game where possible
•Few favorable matchups for either team
•Avoid 49ers run game

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch

The 49ers allow the 4th-fewest FPPG and 6th-fewest rushing yards per game… but I doubt the Seahawks care. Marshawn Lynch is simply the engine of the Seahawks offense. The Hawks will undoubtedly game plan to feed him at least 20 carries with the hopes of wearing down a run defense that has allowed at least 130 total yards to a #1 RB in 2 of its last 3 games. The possible stiff matchup keeps Lynch out of the top tier of RBs this week, but don’t forget about him as a tournament option.

QB Russell Wilson

Unlike most NFL narratives these days, the 49ers/Seahawks Rivalry has certainly NOT depended on dueling QBs since Carrol and Harbaugh got to town. Instead, both teams’ hyper-athletic QBs have been reduced to managing the game and scraping together whatever yards they can against the opposing elite defense. That’s likely to be the case again for Russell Wilson, as he faces a 49ers squad that forced 5 INTs of Eli Manning in Week 11 and basically got RG3 demoted in Week 12. The 49ers allow the 5th-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and grade out as the 2nd-best team in pass coverage. Vegas clearly believes this game will be a defensive struggle, which will severely cap Wilson upside, and suggests he won’t continue his success on the ground either. All things considered, Wilson has a lower floor than usual due to the matchup, but still has tournament upside thanks to his rushing ability.

WR Doug Baldwin

Baldwin is the Seahawks top WR, but he’s awfully far down the totem pole in DFS. Baldwin hasn’t eclipsed 61 receiving yards since Week 7, and his production dwindled to just 2 catches for 6 yards last week. He has a theoretically favorable matchup against the 49ers slot coverage, which has been ineffective all season and is in flux with the injury to 1st-round rookie DB Jimmy Ward. Despite the favorable matchup, Baldwin’s upside is capped by the Seahawks run-first/second/third scheme. As an inconsistent, low-volume WR, Baldwin is best avoided in cash games and instead utilized as a contrarian tournament play.

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

Kaep and I are no longer on speaking terms after the uber-talented QB failed to take advantage of the 2nd-most generous matchup to QBs (i.e. the Redskins) last week. He now goes from facing the 2nd-easiest to the 7th-stingiest defense. The Hawks grade out just behind the 49ers as the 4th-best coverage unit in the NFL and also carry top-15 grades in run-defense and pass-rush. There’s not much chance for upside here, outside a massive rushing performance. Look elsewhere for your QB this week.

WR Anquan Boldin

Boldin is arguably the top 49ers option this week and is coming off a season high 9-catch, 137-yard burning of the Redskins. Given his versatile usage on both the outside and in the slot, Boldin will likely be leaned on as a matchup weapon while other receivers are sacrificed to the coverage of Richard Sherman. If you don’t want to avoid the 49ers entirely this week, target Boldin as a tournament WR.

WR Michael Crabtree

There’s a Narrative Side-street here with the rivalry between Crabtree and CB Richard Sherman… but I don’t think it’s one that will be profitable in DFS. I would be shocked to see the 49ers aggressively target Sherman with Crabtree, so it figures to be another quiet day for the former 1st-round WR. Crabtree is a contrarian tournament play only.

RB Frank Gore

Frank Gore continues to mystify this season, piggybacking his solid Week 11 with a 36-yard dud against the Redskins last week. I would stay far away from Frank again this week, as the Seahawks allow the 9th-fewest FPPG and the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs.