NFL Grind Down: Week 10 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-09 22:51:37

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals

St. Louis Rams						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 4:25 PM						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	43.5	18.25				-7	43.5	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.6	28	25	24		Offense	24.0	14	11	25
Defense	24.0	14	11	25		Defense	18.6	28	25	24
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	13	1	30	22		St. Louis Rams	26	8	26	9
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	35	18	2	281		Fitzgerald	55	35	2	513
Austin	20	16	0	131		Floyd	48	23	2	389
Bailey	9	5	0	60		Brown	48	24	4	326
Cook	53	29	0	343		Carlson	34	18	1	184

Quick Grind

•Target all the Cardinals playmakers
•Cardinals WR Michael Floyd wishes you would just call him back
•Avoid the Rams

St. Louis Rams

Note: there are very few viable options on the Rams this week. Target players on other teams if possible.

Rams RB Soup – now with added Tre Mason! — $5400 — 9.0% of cap — 42nd-most expensive RB

Another week, another declaration of a committee rushing attack from Rams HC Jeff Fisher. But in football, as in life, actions speak louder than words – and RB Tre Masons 82.6% market share of the RB carries last week at least suggests that he’s the preferred option. Mason predictably struggled against the Niners last week, and now gets to face a Cardinals defense allowing just 66.9 rushing yards per game and the FEWEST FPPG to RBs. Look elsewhere.

TE Jared Cook — $4800— 8.0% of cap — 24th most expensive TE

While the Cardinals haven’t been must-play status for opposing TEs this season, they’re still giving up healthy reception (6th-most) and yardage (6th-most) totals to the positions. The matchup puts Cook in play as a salary relief TE this week.

WR Kenny Britt — $5500 — 9.17% of cap — 50th most expensive WR

Kenny Britt is the de-facto #1 WR with Brian Quick injured, and in theory should see enough targets to have some value as a punt WR. It hasn’t happened so far. There’s just no reason to risk rostering a Rams receiver this week (how about that alliteration though?)

Arizona Cardinals

RB Andre Ellington — $8100 — 13.5% of cap — 6th most expensive RB

Ellington was recommended as a top-10 RB play against the paper-tough Cowboys defense last week, and he rewarded Grinders with 134 total yards and a TD on 25 touches. Ellington’s 95 rushing yards were also a season-high. This week Ellington faces another peculiar defense that appears stout vs RBs but can be exploited. The Rams allow the 8th-fewest FPPG to RBs, but have struggled mightily against several non-49er RBs:

This Rams defense can be cracked open by RBs. And for all the talk of the Cardinals high-flying passing game, they actually lean heavily on Ellington as the engine of their offense. Check out his usage the last few weeks:

While many may overlook Ellington due to the perception of the Rams as a good run defense, or the perception of Ellington as a part-time RB, he is a strong option this week.

QB Carson Palmer — $7900 — 13.17% of cap — 10th-most expensive QB

Palmer had his 5th-straight game of at least 249 yards passing and 2 TDs last week. He has been especially consistent since returning from injury and hasn’t had a game with less than 2 TDs this season. That consistency should play well against the consistently generous Rams, who are giving up the 7th-most FPPG to QBs and have allowed 2 or more TDs to QBs in all but 2 games this season. Palmer is a top-10 QB option this week.

WR Larry Fitzgerald — $6800— 11.33% of cap — 15th-most expensive WR

Fitz had a solid 5-70 in Week 9, and after two difficult coverage matchups in a row finally faces a favorable matchup against CB Lamarcus Joyner. Joyner has allowed 16 catches for 156 yards over the last 3 weeks, including 44 yards to the big-bodied Michael Crabtree and Anquan Boldin last week. Fitz should whip Joyner and is a solid option as your final WR.

WR Michael Floyd — $6400— 10.67% of cap — 28th-most expensive WR

I joked about Michael Floyd entering witness protection after his no-show in Week 8… and after a 4-36 performance in Week 9 he might seriously need to consider it now. The fact of the matter is this: despite Floyd’s talent, he just isn’t receiving enough targets to be a reliable DFS option. It’s a shame, because the Rams allow the 7th-most FPPG to WRs, and have been consistently abused on the outside. Floyd’s dropping price makes him a tournament option, but we simply can’t view him as a sure-thing anymore.

WR John Brown — $6100 — 10.17% of cap — 36th-most expensive WR

Brown continues to be a low-floor/high-ceiling play as the #3 WR and vertical threat in this offense. The Rams CBs have struggled, but their safety play has been truly horrific – safety TJ McDonald has the 2nd-worst coverage grade of all qualifying safeties and has already given up 332 yards and 4 TDs in his coverage. Brown is a weekly tournament-only play.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

New York Giants						Seattle Seahawks
Sun – 4:25 PM						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9	44.5	17.75				-9	44.5	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.3	20	10	14		Offense	25.3	11	22	3
Defense	25.3	11	22	3		Defense	22.3	20	10	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	7	9	2	29		New York Giants	22	27	11	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Randle	69	38	2	370		Baldwin	49	34	1	409
Beckham						Kearse	35	17	1	237
Parker	24	14	0	184		Lockette	9	6	2	107
Donnell	49	37	5	357		Willson	20	8	1	79

Quick Grind

•Vegas doesn’t think the Giants offense has much chance
•Marshawn Lynch Beast Mode World Tour continues

New York Giants

TE LARRY ‘LEGEND’ DONNELL — $5300 — 8.83% of cap — 14th-most expensive TE (great value)

Key Injury Alert: Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor is Doubtful to play.

The Legend followed his 7-90 Week 7 with a 4-25-1 line in Week 9. This week he faces a Seahawks defense that has become a bit notorious for their struggles vs TEs – they allow the 4th-most FPPG to the position. This poor ranking is almost entirely fueled by the near-weekly TDs they’ve been allowing, which plays directly into the hands of the 6’6 Donnell, whose 3 TD game earlier in the season is still sung about by traveling minstrels across the land. Donnell is arguably a top-5 TE option this week.

WR Odell Beckham JR — $6600 — 11.0% of cap — 19th-most expensive WR

I have repeatedly gushed over ODB, and he exploded for 8-156 on 11 targets last week. Yes, a lot of it came in garbage time, but ODB looked downright excellent. Unfortunately now he’ll spend a good amount of time in the coverage of Richard Sherman. That alone makes ODB an exceptionally risky play, but there are two caveats here. First, ODB will be moved around, and he theoretically could be schemed away from Sherman if the Giants want to sacrifice a less valuable receiver to his coverage. Second, Sherman has actually struggled a bit recently, and has seemed to struggle in general against smaller, speed receivers – he was burnt up by DeSean Jackson on more than one occasion earlier this season. So there’s a chance the immensely quick and shifty ODB could find success against Sherman. I’m not advising you roster him, but there are at least a few factors that justify ODB as a super-contrarian tournament-only play.

WR Rueben Randle — $6300 — 10.5% of cap — 34th-most expensive WR

Randle gets mention here as the receiver likely OPPOSITE of Richard Sherman. This position should theoretically be more productive, but hasn’t paid DFS dividends lately. Still, if you’re targeting Giants receivers, Randle is likely the least risky of the bunch. He’s a contrarian tournament option.

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch — $8300 — 13.83% of cap — 5th-most expensive RB

Lynch finally got his Beast Mode on last week, to the tune of 143 total yards and 2 TDs. He runs into another favorable matchup this week, as the Giants allow the 6th-most FPPG to RBs, and have coughed up at least 132 yards to opposing #1 RBs in 2 of their last 3 games. Lynch is a top-5 option this week.

QB Russell Wilson — $8100 — 13.5% of cap — 6th-most expensive QB

Wilson has had two forgettable games in a row, and appears to be much more volatile than he seemed amid his hot run earlier in the season. Wilson will have a good shot to redeem himself this week against a Giants defense that allows the 11th-most FPPG to QBs and was just bombed for 359 yards and 4 TDs by Andrew Luck. There is no question the Giants can be sliced up through the air – it’s just a matter of Wilson passing enough to take advantage of it. He’s a volatile upside QB play this week.

WR Doug Baldwin $6300 — 10.50% of cap — 35th-most expensive WR (good value)

Baldwin has cooled considerably since his breakout game in the wake of the Percy Harvin trade, but remains the Seahawks top WR option. Baldwin will see the most favorable coverage matchup of any Hawks receiver this week, but his low TD-scoring potential limits any tournament upside. Baldwin is a high-floor, limited ceiling WR play this week.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Chicago Bears						Green Bay Packers
Sun – 8:30 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	53.5	23.25				-7	53.5	30.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.5	19	8	22		Offense	27.8	6	5	16
Defense	27.8	6	5	16		Defense	22.5	19	8	22
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	18	20	12	17		Chicago Bears	28	13	13	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Marshall	66	34	5	384		Nelson	78	50	6	737
Jeffery	61	38	3	563		Cobb	55	40	9	578
Morgan	8	5	1	36		Adams	35	24	2	263
Bennett	65	47	5	517		Quarless	22	15	2	135

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: ROSTER EVERYONE!
•The Packers passing attack has an excellent matchup
•Can the Bears offense get on track?

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte — $9600 — 16.0% of cap — MOST expensive RB

Outside DeMarco Murray there hasn’t been a more consistent RB in DFS than Matt Forte. And although the Packers kept him out of the endzone back in Week 4, they weren’t able to prevent much more than that, as he flooded the stat sheet with 122 rushing yards and 5-49 through the air. It seemed like the Packers might be tightening against the run of late, but then they gave up 175 yards and a TD to Mark Ingram in Week 8. There’s not much to say here: Forte is a top-2 RB option.

WR Brandon Marshall — $7300 — 12.17% of cap — 13th-most expensive WR (good value)

Marshall’s 2-19-1 line when these teams met in Week 4 isn’t very indicative of his potential this time around. Marshall himself admitted he should have sat out games early in the season, and despite some shaky production he’s seemed lightyears healthier over the last few weeks. The Bears have also had a week to get their disjointed passing attack figured out, and will need to come out firing to keep pace with the Packers. The Packers have been strong in coverage for most of the season and allow the 12th-fewest FPPG to WRs, but Marshall should still be heavily targeted and produce like a top-10 option this week, while priced well below his elite peers.

WR Alshon Jeffery — $7900 — 13.17% of cap — 12th-most expensive WR

Like Marshall, Jeffery had an unspectacular Week 4 (4-39-1). Since then however he’s shown his big play potential with lines of 6-97-1 and 5-136 In Week 5 and Week 6, respectively. With so many elite WRs in favorable matchups this week, there’s been little chatter about the underdog duo in the game with the higehest total. Jeffery will almost certainly be underowned as a result, and is an interesting contrarian play in tournaments given his top-5 WR upside.

QB Jay Cutler — $8000 — 13.33% of cap — 8th-most expensive QB

Every time that Cutler faces the Packers I look at his weapons and think that certainly THIS time he’ll shred them and not make mistakes. But as Week 4 showed, all the weapons in the world can’t take the Jay Cutler out of Jay Cutler, as his 2 INTs sunk the Bears hopes. This week the situation is the same – Cutler has the monstrous upside but is always a threat for multiple interceptions. He’s a volatile top-8 option this week.

TE Martellus Bennett — $6500 — 10.83% of cap — 4th-most expensive TE

Update: Bennett is Questionable due to injury this week

Bennett had one of his blow up games in Week 8 as the Patriots clamped down on the Bears WRs, going 6-95-1 as the team’s top receiver. The Packers have been middle-of-the-road against the TE this year, but Bennett did get free for 9-134 against them in Week 4. Bennett is a top-4 TE play this week.

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers — $9900 — 16.5% of cap — 2nd-most expensive QB

In Week 4, Rodgers blew up the Bears for 310 yards and 4 TDs.
In Week 8, the Bears were blown up for 354 yards and 5 TDs.
Rodgers faces the Bears again this week.
He is a top-2 QB play.

WR Jordy Nelson — $8500 — 14.17% of cap — 7th-most expensive WR

The last time Jordy faced the Bears he dropped 10-108-2 on them. The Bears have done nothing to improve their secondary since then. There’s little analysis needed here: Jordy is a top-3 WR play.

WR Randall Cobb — $8600 — 14.33% of cap — 5th-most expensive WR

Cobb also went ballistic back in Week 4, and had his best game of the season: 7 catches for 113 yards and 2 TDs. The Bears have no way of slowing him down in the slot, so he too is a top-10 play this week.

WR Davante Adams — $5200 — 8.67% of cap — 54th-most expensive WR (great value)

The one change to the Packers passing attack since Week 4 has been the emergence of WR Davante Adams. Adams has received at least 8 targets and 6 catches in 2 of his last 3 games. If you want to get exposure to the Packers offense but don’t want to pay through the roof for their elite WRs, Adams is a fine salary relief play.

RB Eddie Lacy — $7900 — 13.17% of cap — 7th-most expensive RB

Lacy was basically the only Packer who didn’t really get in on the fun back in Week 4, though it did mark his season-high in carries (17). With an unstoppable aerial attack, Lacy and the run game are used as more of a change-of-pace, and he doesn’t see the volume necessary to be an impact DFS play.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Carolina Panthers						Philadelphia Eagles
Mon – 8:30 PM						Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	48	21				-6	48	27
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.7	25	20	25		Offense	29.3	4	12	13
Defense	29.3	4	12	13		Defense	19.7	25	20	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	30	16	28	1		Carolina Panthers	24	29	25	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	78	40	5	589		Maclin	83	45	8	790
Cotchery	47	28	0	375		Cooper	52	31	1	331
Avant	38	20	1	193		Matthews	52	32	3	313
Olsen	66	45	5	539		Celek	25	14	0	90

Quick Grind

•High pace game with several excellent matchups, especially for the Eagles
•The Age of Sanchez has begun in Philadelphia
•Cam Newton could be poised for a bounceback

Carolina Panthers

QB Cam Newton — $7700 — 12.83% of cap — 14th-most expensive QB (good value)

Yes, Newton has struggled immensely over the last few weeks. But if there’s any matchup that can dramatically boost the production of a QB, it’s a matchup with the Frenetic Eagles (which sounds like an Indie band name). Over their last 4 games, the Eagles have made even Austin Davis and Ryan Fitzpatrick DFS-relevant. They allow the 3rd-most FPPG to QBs. Cam should also benefit from a restocked offensive line this week, as both his blindside protector and a starting guard are expected back from injury. With his offensive line restored, Cam should be a more efficient passer AND runner. The pace bump from the Eagles will also mean more plays across the board. The possibility of increased rushing volume alone makes Cam a very enticing tournament QB.

WR Kelvin Benjamin — $6700 — 11.17% of cap — 17th-most expensive WR

Forget that Benjamin was held to 2-18 last week, as this week not only does he play up in pace in a game the Panthers figure to be throwing often in, but he also has one of the top individual matchups of any WR. Benjamin will primarily see Cary Williams in coverage; Williams has already allowed 436 yards, 3 TDs, and a whopping 124 yards after the catch. The matchup and pace factors make Benjamin an excellent tournament play this week.

TE Greg Olsen — $7000 — 11.67% of cap — 3rd-most expensive TE

Olsen was completely shut down by the Saints last week, and won’t have an easier job this week as he goes from the defense allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG, to the defense allowing the FEWEST. The pace of this game should lead to additional opportunities for Olsen, but Eagles LB Mychal Kendricks is approaching Patrick Willis status as far as shutting down TEs. Olsen is a risky play this week.

Philadelphia Eagles

LeSean McCoy — $7700 — 12.83% of cap — 8th-most expensive RB

McCoy ripped off 117 yards on 23 carries last week, but we’re still waiting on some TDs from him. There’s a VERY good chance they’ll start coming this week against the Panthers, who allow the 3rd-most rushing TDs to RBs, and the 4th-most FPPG overall. And finally, at long last, the Eagles will have an offensive line that looks mostly like it did in 2013, as All-World LG Evan Mathis returns this week. I mentioned the return of elite run-blocking center Jason Kelce last week – the impact of Mathis returning will be even bigger. The countdown to a monster game from Shady is officially on. And in a weird way, Mark Sanchez might even help Shady’s chances. Unlike Nick Foles, Sanchez does have a little athleticism to him, which should prevent defenders from just selling out to stop the RB on zone-read plays due to the threat of Sanchez keeping it.

With a new somewhat-mobile QB at the helm, a restored offensive line, and a cake matchup on deck, my money is a big day from Shady. McCoy is a top-3 RB play this week.

WR Jeremy Maclin — $8700 — 14.50% of cap — 4th-most expensive WR

I’ve been preaching about Jeremy Maclin in the #GrindDown since the Dawn of Time, so his rampage on opposing defenses has been pretty satisfying to watch. Maclin went ballistic for 6-158-2 last week vs the Texans, and showed no ill effects from the QB switch. And this week he gets a dream matchup with CB Antoine Cason. Cason is a big reason the Panthers are allowing the 8th-most FPPG to WRs, and is a favorite #GrindDown target because of it. Maclin is a top-5 WR play this week.

QB Mark Sanchez — $6600 — 11.0% of cap — 23rd-most expensive QB (excellent value)

Mark Sanchez is a recommended DFS play. Welcome to the NFL.

Sanchez looked plug’n’play in the Chip Kelly offense last week, and makes for an excellent value option as the starting QB with a backups price. He faces a Panthers defense with massive coverage issues: the Panthers are allowing the 9th-most FPPG to QBs, have allowed at least 2 TD passes in all but 2 games this year, and grade out as the 4th-worst coverage team in the NFL. He may not be the most talented QB, but Sanchez is without question the top value QB in DFS this week. Now please excuse me while I go take a hot shower, because I feel dirty.

WR Jordan Matthews — $5700 — 9.5% of cap — 46th-most expensive WR (great value)

Matthews went 3-40-1 last week, and deserves mention as a matchup play this week. You might recall from past weeks me mentioning that the Panthers literally CUT their last slot cover man because he was so bad. Well now they’re using UDFA James Dockery, who has allowed a perfect 100% catch rate in his coverage so far. Matthews should destroy him, and is an upside punt WR in tournaments.

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!