NFL Grind Down: Week 11 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-17 23:24:08

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

New England Patriots						Indianapolis Colts
Sun – 8:30 PM						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	57.5	27.25				-3	57.5	30.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.2	3	5	27		Offense	32.2	1	2	15
Defense	32.2	1	2	15		Defense	31.2	3	5	27
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	22	20	11	25		New England Patriots	14	29	2	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	79	54	2	556		Wayne	73	42	2	504
LaFell	63	36	5	514		Hilton	84	56	3	937
Amendola	16	9	1	82		Nicks	42	21	2	212
Gronkowski	75	49	8	663		Allen	40	2 6	7	374

Quick Grind

•Monstrous Vegas total (57) and tight spread means…
•…Gary Oldman Super-Seal of Approval: Target Everyone!
•Both QBs are Top-4 plays
•Rob Gronkowski is a mythical creature

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

Rob Gronkowski is a mythical creature. That’s my expert analysis. He Gronked all over the Broncos for 9-105-1 in Week 9, and now gets the Colts, who already allow the 8th-most FPPG to TEs. They just have no way of covering him. Gronk is the top TE play this week.

QB Tom Brady

Tom Terrific touched up the Broncos top-tier secondary for 333 yards and 4 TDs in Week 9, and now rolls into Indy to face a Colts defense that allowed a historic 521 yards and 6 TDs to Big Ben and the Steelers in Week 8. Beyond elite CB Vontae Davis, the Colts have no other threatening personnel in their secondary, meaning Brady will be free to pick apart mismatches created by Gronk, Edelman, and Vereen. Brady is one of the Big 4 QBs that you must consider paying up for in cash games and tournaments.

WR Julian Edelman

Edelman was an impressive 9-89-1 vs the Broncos, and will likely be leaned on similarly this week as Brandon LaFell is sacrificed to top cover man Vontae Davis. Edelman will have the task of embarrassing the other easily-embarrassed Colts CBs, Greg Toler on the outside and Darius Butler in the slot. Both have been #GrindDown favorites multiple times, most notably Toler, who has PFF’s 8th-worst coverage grade, and has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards of all qualifying CBs. Remember when #GrindDown darling Odell Beckham broke out vs the Colts? Yeah, Toler. Between Toler and Bulter, Edelman has an excellent opportunity and is an ideal #2 WR this week.

RB Shane Vereen

Vereen is a definite X-Factor in this game as a nearly guaranteed matchup nightmare for the Colts. The Colts allow 58.3 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, 2nd only to the Falcons for the worst mark in the NFL. And while the Colts LBs and safeties scramble to try and keep Gronk under wraps, Vereen will be darting across formations, splitting wide, and testing the athleticism and discipline of the defense with wheel routes. While I wouldn’t run Vereen out in cash games, I think he’s a high-upside tournament play and has obvious difference making potential on full-PPR sites.

WR Brandon LaFell

LaFell actually had an encouraging game against the Broncos lockdown coverage in Week 9, but he’s still an extremely risky play under the watch of shutdown CB Vontae Davis. Target him at a decreased price next week instead.

RB Jonas Gray

As a reminder: “The short story with Gray is that he’s a 5’10, 225 lb, undrafted rookie who has been installed as the Stevan Ridley replacement in the Pats offense. And so far he looks like a good fit, with solid RB traits and feel, and power as well.”

Gray didn’t show much vs the Broncos, with just 12 carries for 33 yards, but the Broncos have the 2nd-best run-defense grade on PFF for a reason. Gray will face a much more generous run defense this week. While everyone expects the Patriots to use some variation of a ‘throw to beat the Colts’ strategy, would it really be that shocking if Bellichick does the exact opposite and runs it down their throat to keep the ball out of Luck’s hands? Gray would be the beneficiary of that game plan – he’s a YOLO tournament play.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

Another week, another 350+ yards and 4 TDs. Ho-hum. Luck’s preposterous passing volume will clash with the Patriots top-7 coverage unit (per PFF) this week, in what is the toughest matchup among the Big 4 QBs. Despite their ability to ‘take away’ individual weapons, the Pats have given up solid performances to several opposing QBs, including over 440 yards to Peyton Manning their last time out. Luck is still an excellent play across all formats this week, as he sees a nearly unparalleled volume of passes each week.

WR TY Hilton

TY Hilton vs Darelle Revis. Except, probably not. Revis now plays ‘sides’ instead of shadowing WRs, especially with former-Seahawk Brandon Browner (who played opposite another elite sides CB, Richard Sherman, in Seattle) back healthy on the opposite side. Hilton will be schemed away from Revis plenty. With most unaware of this difference, or still afraid despite it, Hilton’s ownership percentage won’t be very high this week. He has sneaky tournament appeal this week as Luck’s primary weapon.

WR Reggie Wayne

Wayne returned from injury in Week 9 and looked sharp en route to a 4-70-1 line. He’ll be force fed the ball again this week as the Colts try to keep pace, and is an excellent play on full-PPR sites for a very modest price.

TE Dwayne Allen

If Dwayne Allen plays in an NFL game, he catches a TD pass. It’s basically a law at this point. Luck and Allen hit a couple chunk plays, Allen gets a TD, rinse, repeat. He’s an ideal mid-tier TE play for those not investing in Graham or Gronk this week.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Bradshaw’s versatility should be on FULL display this week, as the Colts will need his efficient dual-threat talents to expose the generous Pats defense. The Patriots allow the 3rd-most FPPG to RBs as well as the 4th-most receptions per game – this is an ideal matchup for Bradshaw. Unlike Vereen, we can count on a high-floor for Bradshaw, but the ceiling is also just as high. Bradshaw is a high-floor/high-upside #2 RB this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers						Tennessee Titans
Mon – 8:30 PM						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5.5	47	26.25				5.5	47	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.1	8	4	23		Offense	16.0	31	25	24
Defense	16.0	31	25	24		Defense	26.1	8	4	23
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	9	24	15	19		Pittsburgh Steelers	15	13	12	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	112	79	8	1070		Wright	60	39	4	403
Wheaton	57	35	2	436		Washington	36	19	0	267
Moore	16	10	2	141		Hunter	50	21	2	368
Miller	49	38	2	430		Walker	63	38	4	512

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total suggests surprising amount of scoring
•Target: Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell
•Steelers defense is without two key players this week
•Titans match up well due to Steelers injuries, but have been horrible recently

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown finally had a ‘letdown’ (8-74) game last week, mainly just to prove to people that he was a real human being. He’ll immediately go back to being uncontainable this week – and is a top-5 WR play.

RB Le’Veon Bell

After two matchups from hell (Ravens, Jets), Le’Veon Bell should finally see soom room to run this week. And possibly LOTS of room, at that. The Titans allow the MOST rushing yards per game to RBs and the 9th-most FPPG. They also grade out as the 6th-worst run-defense squad, per PFF. All this is music to Le’Veon’s ears – he’s a top-3 RB this week.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

I know, Ben let you down, massively, last week. But this is the more familiar Ben. He has a less favorable matchup this week against a Titans unit that is slightly below average in coverage but allows the 11th-fewest FPPG to QBs. Of course, the Titans also have our favorite CB to pick on, Blidi Wreh-Wilson (more on him below), so Ben will have mismatches to attack. Don’t expect 6 TDs, but rather a solid, if unspectacular performance. Ben is a top-10 QB play this week and is priced as such on the
major sites.

WR Martavis Bryant

Bryant’s absurd run continues after he hauled in an 80-yard TD to pad his stats all the way to 4-143-1 for the week. That’s going to be the story with Bryant – if he doesn’t hit big plays, he’s not going to give you much. But when he does hit them, he can have a massive day. Bryant’s wicked athleticism will certainly be tested against Blidi Wreh-Wilson, who owns the 3rd-worst coverage grade among qualifying CBs, and has a habit of getting torched for big plays (5 TDs allowed). Bryant is a low-floor/monster-ceiling play this week.

Tennessee Titans

RB Bishop Sankey

Sankey is arguably the top Titans play this week (though that isn’t saying much). Despite another modest statistical performance, Sankey at least looked good. The Steelers are graded in the bottom half of teams in run-defense, and will be without two of their most important defenders as LB Ryan Shazier and S Troy Polamalu will be out again. That should make life easier for Sankey, who already runs behind a line with the 8th-best run-blocking grade. Sankey is viable as a limited-upside salary relief RB this week.

The Titans “Passing Attack”

No one in the Titans passing game can be trusted. Their game plans are horrible, and so is the QB. Last week against a team with CLEAR liabilities in the secondary, Just Hunter received two targets. Two. Kendall Wright was permanently open, yet Mettenberger either missed him or didn’t notice. Delanie Walker got concussed. It was a complete mess.

This week, there are a few nice matchups, but trusting them to pay off is extremely risky. If you’re taking a Titans WR this week, I would suggest making it Kendall Wright. Wright will likely see Brice McClain in slot coverage — McClain has allowed 14/16 completions for 200+ yards and a TD over the last 3 weeks. Wright should at least offer a solid floor on full-PPR sites. Not exactly a rousing endorsement, I know, but this unit looked putrid last week.

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!