NFL Grind Down: Week 11 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-16 02:59:25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Washington Redskins
Sun – 1:00 PM						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	45.5	19.25				-7	45.5	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.6	27	22	30		Offense	21.9	18	18	11
Defense	21.9	18	18	11		Defense	18.6	27	22	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	30	6	17	23		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	26	21	32	16
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	90	40	2	518		Garcon	62	42	3	458
Evans	62	39	5	585		Jackson	61	36	4	784
Murphy	35	21	2	242		Roberts	51	25	2	266
Seferian-Jenkins	33	18	2	198		Reed	26	22	0	207

Quick Grind

•Modest Vegas total with the Redskins strongly favored
•Both pass defenses are horrible
•Excellent salary relief plays in this game

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Mike Evans

Evans continued his rampage on NFL secondaries last week, this time dropping 7-125-1 on Robert Alford and the helpless Falcons. The kid is a beast, plain and simple. And after whipping the 4th-worst coverage unit with ease last week, now he gets the pleasure of facing the 2nd-worst coverage unit. He’s reached top-15 WR play status, and is an excellent choice in tournaments yet again.

WR Vincent Jackson

Jackson continues to see massive target volume. And although he’s putting up solid, if unspectacular production on full-PPR sites (6-86, 8-75 last two weeks), he has yet to drop a vintage VJAX monster game. It’s coming. He’s worth the gamble this week against the Redskins porous secondary, and is a solid tournament play.

QB Josh McCown

Yes, Josh McCown is a viable play this week – his price is that good, and the Redskins secondary is that bad. The Redskins actually allow the 2nd-most FPPG to QBs, a ranking that should remain stable thanks to their general lack of healthy talent and struggling secondary. If you aren’t paying all the way up for one of the Big 4 QBs this week, it’s not that crazy to drop all the way down to McCown and punt the position entirely. McCown’s strong matchup would make him a strong play even if his price weren’t so affordable.

RB Bobby Rainey

I’m under doctor’s orders to limit how much I think and write about Bobby Rainey after last week’s disaster. Thankfully the matchup this week isn’t nearly as favorable as it was last week, when Rainey was facing THE WORST TEAM VS RBs BY A MILE. The Redskins run defense has been cracked open only a few times this season and they are allowing the 6th-fewest FPPG to RBs. I would look elsewhere for a salary relief RB this week.

Washington Redskins

QB Robert Griffin III

RG3 survived his return to the field last week, and despite a modest statistical performance showed flashes of his old skillset with accurate strikes downfield. RG3 figures to be awfully popular this week thanks to his industry-wide ‘sleeper’ label, earned based on his cake matchup with the Bucs. Indeed, the Bucs defense may as well be sleeping for how well they’ve played defense this season; they grade out as the 3rd-worst coverage unit in the NFL (per PFF), allow the 6th-most FPPG to opposing QBs, and have rolled over for just about every QB they’ve faced besides Matt Ryan last week (sorry to twist the knife, Ryan owners). Given the matchup RG3 is a high-upside salary relief QB this week.

RB Alfred Morris

”A couple of interesting notes relating to Alf Morris this week. First, reports are that the Skins think RG3’s return will help reinvigorate the run game – presumably due to his ability to stretch the defense both with his arm and his legs. Redskins coaches have also commented that they’re going to aim to establish the run early to get RG3 comfy and in a rhythm. Of course, coaches say this all the time. But, I think that getting Alf in the rhythm is the crucial bit here. If he can grind out some strong early runs and start wearing down the defense it will do wonders for him come the second half.”

Those reports paid huge dividends for #GrindDown readers in Week 9, as Alf busted out for 109 total yards and 2 TDs on 21 touches vs the Vikings. I’ve included that portion of Alf’s previous write-up because it’s an important change to his value going forward. Look for Alf to continue to be an efficient, high-floor option this week against a Bucs defense allowing the 10th-most FPPG to RBs.

WR DeSean Jackson

The deep assassin continued his reign of terror last week with a 4-120-1 gouging of the Vikings. The reign likely continues this week, as I’m not sure the Bucs have anyone who can hope to stay with DJax. And to make matters worse, their top CB Alterraun Verner is doubtful to play. It’s a no-win situation for the Bucs, but a win-win for us. DJax is a top-15 WR with an ever-present massive ceiling.

WR Pierre Garcon

Garcon has yet to really get it going this season. But as he struggles, his price continues to plummet, making him nearly irresistible this week vs the Bucs out-to-lunch secondary. We haven’t seen the results yet, but they’re coming, and at a very cheap price. Garcon is one of the top salary relief WRs this week.

TE Jordan Reed

Boggslite discussed Reed on the NFL Game Night show this week. Although Reed didn’t get in on the fun in RG3’s first week back, the two demonstrated undeniable chemistry during Reed’s rookie season, and were reportedly shredding defenses together in the offseason as well. I don’t doubt Reed will get back on track, and quickly, considering his matchup with what Boggs and Britdevine refer to as the “Tampa Zero” defense. Lovie Smith meticulously crafts his Tampa 2 defense to completely suck against opposing TEs, and they’ve stayed true to form so far by allowing the second-most catches per game and 5th-most yards per game to opposing TEs. Still discounted throughout the industry, Reed is a strong low-cost alternative to the elite TEs this week.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

Oakland Raiders						San Diego Chargers
Sun – 4:05 PM						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		10	44.5	17.25				-10	44.5	27.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	16.2	30	23	32		Offense	22.8	17	7	31
Defense	22.8	17	7	31		Defense	16.2	30	23	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	25	22	14	2		Oakland Raiders	19	30	10	18
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	71	47	3	463		Allen	73	47	1	474
Holmes	47	25	4	400		Floyd	44	28	3	530
Moore	27	12	0	115		Royal	43	26	5	374
Rivera	52	34	3	286		Gates	54	35	9	445

Quick Grind

•Vegas thinks the Chargers will stomp
•Avoid the Raiders
•Injury Update: Chargers RB Ryan Mathews returns this week

Oakland Raiders

TE Mychal Rivera

Rivera was the ultimate garbage-time special last week, hauling in 3-49-1 on the Raiders last drive alone; he finished 6-64-1 and gave at least a little legitimacy to the ‘Punt TE’ theory. Rivera has now been a solid salary relief option for the past 3 weeks… but can he keep the streak alive against the defense allowing just the 4th-fewest FPPG to TEs? Prior to giving up 65 yards and a TD to Charles Clay in Week 9, the Chargers had been lights out against TEs for most of the season. Rivera does see a sneaky high volume of targets as Derek Carr’s safety blanket, but the matchup is a definite concern. Rivera is viable as a salary relief option, but is much riskier than he’s been in the past few weeks.

WR Andre Holmes

Is it time to wake the beast? Holmes bombarded this defense for 4-121-2 in his breakout Week 6 game. He certainly has the talent to whip them again… but oddly Holmes’ targets have been dwindling since his monster game. Considering the inconsistent opportunities of late, Holmes is a risky tournament-only play but has a monster ceiling.

WR James Jones

James Jones has been repeatedly sacrificed to elite cover men in recent weeks, and this week is no different as he’ll primarily see the resurgent Brandon Flowers in coverage. Avoid him.

RB Darren McFadden

McFadden finally escapes from the string of rugged run defenses and now gets a second crack at a defense he managed 14-80 against back in Week 6. The Chargers allow just 86 rushing yards per game but still allow the 12th-most FPPG to RBs. They are returning some key defenders this week though, which is enough reason to simply avoid McFadden, if you weren’t already. He’s an uninspiring play this week.

San Diego Chargers

QB Philip Rivers

The Raiders were just eviscerated for 340 yards and 5 TD by Peyton Manning.

Philip Rivers lit them up for 313 yards and 3 TDs back in Week 6

More than half of the Raiders secondary has been replaced due to injury, and many of those replacements are now injured themselves

Phillip Rivers faces the Raiders again this week.

Rivers is a top-6 QB play this week, and an excellent salary relief option if you aren’t paying up for the Big 4.

TE Antonio Gates

The Raiders just gave up 6-63-2 to Julius Thomas last week, and Gates himself had 3-27-1 vs this team in Week 6. He’s a top-5 TE play and solid alternative if you aren’t paying for the top tier.

RB Ryan Mathews

It looks like Ryan Mathews is finally set to return this week, and what a week he’s chosen: the Raiders allow the 2nd most rushing yards per game, as well as the 2nd-most FPPG to opposing RBs. Reports suggest that Mathews will see about 15 carries in this game, which, against the porous defense I just described, is enough to warrant roster consideration. The likely carry limit, and possibility that Mathews is pulled in a blowout definitely temper expectations of a monster game, but he’s still a strong #2 RB play.

WR Keenan Allen

Boggslite and I discussed Allen in depth on Thursday’s NFL Game Night show – check it out for the full scoop. Despite being a let down for most of the season, Allen is seeing increased a burst of targets in the short and intermediate passing game, giving him a high floor on full PPR sites. His price is sure to rise after a date with one of the NFL’s worst secondaries, so fire up Allen as a strong salary relief WR this week.

WR Malcom Floyd

As always, Malcom Floyd is a tournament-specific option thanks to his ability to pay off his salary with just 2-3 catches. Floyd did just that in his Week 6 clash with the Raiders, cracking them open for 5-103-1. He’s viable as your #3 WR or FLEX in tournaments.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Detroit Lions						Arizona Cardinals
Sun – 4:25 PM						Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2	41	19.5				-2	41	21.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.2	24	16	29		Offense	24.8	12	12	26
Defense	24.8	12	12	26		Defense	20.2	24	16	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Arizona Cardinals	10	2	25	24		Detroit Lions	1	9	1	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	52	29	3	461		Fitzgerald	65	44	2	625
Tate	93	66	3	909		Floyd	52	24	2	400
Ross	22	16	1	197		Brown	57	29	5	399
Pettigrew	14	9	0	68		Carlson	38	20	1	217

Quick Grind

•Lowest Vegas total of the week reflects two top defenses facing off
•Megatron vs Patrick Peterson/Antonio Cromartie: who ya got?
•Avoid both running games
•Depth Chart Update: Cardinals starting QB Drew Stanton

Detroit Lions

WR Calvin Johnson

The King of WRs reclaimed his throne with a 7-113-1 line vs the stick coverage of the Dolphins and CB Brent Grimes last week. He’ll face another stiff test vs Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie this week… but do you really care? Megatron is an elite play as long as he’s healthy.

QB Matthew Stafford

Stafford sleepwalks through games for 3+ quarters and then seems to always flip a switch when it’s time to secure the win. Hopefully with Megatron back, Stafford will start dominating beginning to end. Vegas doesn’t think his Lions will be lighting it up this week, but with Megatron healthy and Golden Tate as a hyper-effective complement, it’s certainly a possibility. The Cardinals are allowing the most passing yards per game but also lead the league in interceptions per game – a scary combination for the gunslingin’ Stafford. Ultimately Stafford is a top-10ish option, but is in a bit of a no-man’s land between the elite group and the true value plays. Outside of tournaments, I would lean for either a cheaper or more elite QB instead.

WR Golden Tate

Well it doesn’t seem like Golden Tate is going to go away quietly, does it? Tate ripped off 11-109 last week and actually seems like he’ll have a pretty high floor given his work in the short passing and screen game last week. Tate should have a fine game given that he works out of the slot on 63% of his snaps, but the problem with rostering him is his price, which is still inflated from his massive run as the #1 WR. It’s hard to justify paying such a high price for a secondary option, making him solely a tournament option until his price adjusts accordingly.

Detroit RB City

It sounds like Reggie Bush won’t play this week, leaving Joique Bell and Theo Riddick manning the RB spot. As usual, Bell will handle the Lion’s share of the between-the-tackles work, while Riddick steps into the pass-catching role usually occupied by Bush. The Cardinals play stiff run defense, making Bell an unappealing play. Riddick on the other hand is a viable super-punt on full-PPR sites given his encouraging usage when Bush has been out.

Arizona Cardinals

RB Andre Ellington

With the injury to Carson Palmer, Andre Ellington is now the only Cardinal who will be viable on a weekly basis. Unfortunately he faces a horrible matchup, as the Lions allow just 64.4 rushing yards per game, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL. The silver lining for Ellington on full-PPR sites is of course his dual-threat ability, which the Lions encourage by allowing an average of 6.5 catches and 59.4 receiving yards per game to RBs. That’s a solid floor through air production alone. Ellington isn’t an ideal play due to the matchup, but is still a high-floor option on full-PPR sites.

Cardinals Receivers

The move to Drew Stanton at QB smashes the value of the Cardinals WRs. Of the group, Larry Fitzgerald had been the most consistent with Palmer at the helm, and given his slot role will likely continue to be, albeit with less weekly production. Stanton can sling it, but that doesn’t mean he can hit Michael Floyd or John Brown any better than Carson Palmer – but Floyd has been so bad that maybe the switch will actually be an improvement. Nonetheless, the Lions are a top-10 coverage unit, and will smash the Cardinals offensive line with their pass rush; this is not the week to take chances on Cardinals WRs.

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