NFL Grind Down: Week 11 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-16 03:00:45

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints

Cincinnati Bengals						New Orleans Saints
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	50.5	21.75				-7	50.5	28.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.9	18	29	6		Offense	27.9	6	6	3
Defense	27.9	6	6	3		Defense	21.9	18	29	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	21	19	28	1		Cincinnati Bengals	11	28	4	26
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	41	23	3	381		Colston	50	30	1	480
Sanu	74	42	4	648		Cooks	62	48	3	500
Tate	20	14	1	159		Stills	38	27	1	399
Gresham	48	36	0	276		Graham	75	56	7	594

Quick Grind

•4th-highest Vegas total with Saints heavily favored
•Tough matchup for Saints passing attack but Brees is dominant at home
•Injury Update: Bengals RB Jeremy Hill starting for injured RB Gio Bernard

Cincinnati Bengals

Key Injury Alert: RB Gio Bernard will not play this week – Upgrade RB Jeremy Hill

WR AJ Green

Just throw last week out.

Andy Dalton was trying to make the wrong kind of history, and Green was locked up with Joe Haden as well. Green’s prospects are looking much brighter this week, as the shutdown CB he would normally face (Keenan Lewis) was injured vs the 49ers and may not play this week. If Lewis can’t go, give AJ the GREEN LIGHT (  ) as a top-10 WR play.

WR Mohamed Sanu

Again — Just throw last week out.

I don’t expect Sanu to just fade away with AJ Green back – rather, I think he’ll easily exploit weaker matchups and single coverage… assuming Andy Dalton remembers how to play QB. We typically target the #2 WR instead of the #1 vs the Saints due to the presence of Keenan Lewis, and this week will be no different. There is perhaps the perception of additional risk or volatility given the debacle last week, but don’t let recency bias color your judgment too much. Sanu is a viable #2 or #3 WR this week.

RB Jeremy Hill

Hill fell victim to the Curse of the DFS Must-Play last week, as an unlikely game script and epically horrible performance from Andy Dalton caused the Bengals to get away from the run. Despite his prodigious talent, Hill needs volume to be effective; he didn’t get it, and countless Grinders felt the effects on their rosters. Hill remains an extremely enticing price play this week… but there’s just one problem. Drew Brees. Hill’s kryptonite is unfavorable game scripts, and it’s tough to envision Brees not racking up points against this struggling defense on his home turf. Hill certainly has the potential to crack open this defense, but there’s a good chance he doesn’t get the carries necessary to do so. Treat him as a risky floor (not truly a low floor like some garbage RB, but a floor that has the risk of being lower due to game flow) but high ceiling RB this week, with substantial salary relief to boot.

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

The only hope the Bengals have this week is if Drew Brees continues to gift-wrap interceptions and serves a few more up on Sunday. As I mentioned on the NFL Game Night show, about the only thing the Bengals defense has done well this season is defend the pass, and their secondary is a talented (but aging) unit. But we’re talking about Drew Brees at home, here. Brees is a top-5 play, but is still clearly behind the Big 4 in terms of roster priority this week.

TE Jimmy Graham

Jimmy Graham just detonated the 49ers defense for 10-76-2* last week.
Now he faces the Bengals, who allow the 6th-most FPPG to TEs.
Sometimes, it’s just this easy – Graham is a top-2 TE play

RB #AngryIngram

Man I love watching Mark Ingram run. Even against one of the league’s top run defenses, Ingram mini-Beast Moded for 139 total yards. And now he goes from facing one of the best, to facing one of the worst run defenses – the Bengals grade out as PFF’s 3rd-worst run defense squad, and allow the 8th-most FPPG to RBs. Ingram is a top-5 RB play that most will not see as such.

WR Brandin Cooks

If I’m taking any Saints WR this week it’s going to be Brandin Cooks. The rookie has been a lightning bolt at home this season, likely a combination of the lovely home turf, and the coaching staff’s willingness to make risky and/or complicated play-calls when they don’t have to worry about crowd noise. The one caution here is that Cooks has offset his explosive games with plenty of duds as well, so don’t consider him a sure thing just yet. But with home field on his side, target Cooks as a high-upside tournament play this week.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants

San Francisco 49ers						New York Giants
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4	44	24				4	44	20
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.7	20	17	14		Offense	21.7	20	13	16
Defense	21.7	20	13	16		Defense	21.7	20	17	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	23	31	6	27		San Francisco 49ers	6	7	16	17
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Crabtree	68	40	3	424		Randle	79	43	2	409
Boldin	77	51	3	635		Beckham
Johnson	40	31	3	399		Parker	31	21	1	263
Davis	30	17	2	169		Donnell	55	41	5	383

Quick Grind

•Giants defense has unraveled vs both the run and pass in recent weeks
•Squeaky Wheel Alert: Michael Crabtree
•Injury Update: Giants RB Rashad Jennings on track to play this week

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

Kaep got his team the win last week but didn’t do enough through the air or on the ground to make an impact for his DFS owners. The matchup is already enticing many into forgetting Kaep’s recent struggles though, as he faces a Giants defense fresh off being steamrolled by the Seahawks (which included 100 rushing yards and a TD to QB Russell Wilson). While we should be careful assuming Kaep and Wilson will have similar performances (didn’t exactly work out vs the Rams in Week 9), this game would appear to be the perfect storm for Kaepernick from a matchup standpoint. The inconsistent 49ers passing game has stalled out their offense repeatedly, but Kaep should be able to exploit a depleted Giants defense that is allowing the 4th-most passing yards per game and the 11th-most FPPG to the position; the Giants vulnerabilities vs the pass were most evident in Week 9, when Andrew Luck and the Colts blasted them for 354 yards and 4 TDs. The Giants are also without a few core members of their secondary, most notably Prince Amukamara, which should open up exploitable matchups and easier throws for Kaep. Coupled with the Giants obvious struggles vs the run last week, it certainly seems like Kaep is in line for a bounce-back this week. His inconsistency SERIOUSLY worries me both as a fan and in DFS though. Avoid Kaepernick in cash games this week, and treat him as a low-floor, high-ceiling QB play in tournaments.

WR Anquan Boldin

Boldin continued his run as a quietly solid full-PPR WR with 6-95-1 vs the Saints last week. If that lines seems oddly familiar it’s because Boldin’s been hitting that particular level of production an awful lot lately. Check it out:

Boldin’s provided consistently strong production at a modest price for several week. Expect that run to continue this week, as Kaepernick will be looking to both avoid Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie’s coverage on Michael Crabtree, and exploit Boldin’s matchups. As I mentioned, the Giants are without #2 CB Prince Amukamara, and have been struggling with their slot coverage as well. Boldin makes for a solid #2 WR this week, especially on full PPR sites.

WR Michael Crabtree

Squeaky Wheel Alert!

What are we to do!? On one hand, Crabtree should be in line for Squeaky Wheel Treatment after complaining about his role in the offense and calling himself the ‘Third option’. On the other hand, he draws lockdown CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in coverage. I have to side with the coverage here, especially with the tasty matchup for Boldin on the other side of the field. Crabtree is just a tournament dart throw this week.

RB Frank Gore

Like clockwork, just as most everyone had written off Frank Gore, he finds himself with a favorable game script and cashes in 81 yds and a TD. I still can’t bring myself to trust him in DFS, but the matchup is basically undeniable: the Giants allow the 5th-most FPPG to RBs, and just gave 462 TDs to the Seahawks last week. Even with the matchup, I don’t see Frank going ballistic. He could grind out 80-100 yards and a TD, but I wouldn’t expect more than that. Consider him a high floor, limited ceiling RB play this week.

New York Giants

WR Odell Beckham JR

A #GrindDown favorite, ODB followed up his 8-156 explosion with a 7-108 deciphering of Richard Sherman last week. Embarrassing speed and quickness, hands made of glue, precision route-running – this kid is just an amazing talent. He faces another tough matchup this week, but I care not. Beckham is a high-upside WR play this week, especially on full PPR sites.

RB Rashad Jennings

It sounds like Rashad Jennings will return from injury this week. And while the matchup is perceived as being tough, and certainly has been for many teams, the 49ers did just get TRAMPLED for 120 rushing yards by #AngryIngram last week. The main concern here isn’t the matchup, but the workload, as HC Tom Coughlin suggested that Jennings wouldn’t see his usual workload this week. Of course, Jennings has since come out and said he’s ready to carry ALL the mail this week, but Coughlin is a stubborn old bat. Jennings is a viable #2 RB this week, but don’t expect a top-tier performance or workload in his first week back.

TE LARRY ‘LEGEND’ DONNELL

The Larry Legend rollercoaster continues. The Legend REFUSED to take advantage of a good matchup last week, instead opting to catch only 4 passes for just 26 yards. He wants to earn his production the hard way, starting this week against the 49ers, who allow the 8th-fewest FPPG to TEs. I’m sure Larry will be disheartened when he hears the news that the 49ers have lost my beloved All-World LB Patrick Willis for the season, leaving a gaping hole in their TE coverage. A hole, which Jimmy Graham burst through for 10-76-2 last week. The Legend has the same excellent matchup this week – but be wary of his volatility.

WR Rueben Randle

Randle has been an underwhelming bore this season, especially considering the absurd number of targets (and red-zone targets!) that gets. Unlike ODB, I don’t think he has a good chance of transcending his matchup, and suggest avoiding him until we see signs of life.

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams

Denver Broncos						St. Louis Rams
Sun – 1:00 PM						Edward Jones Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-9.5	51	30.25				9.5	51	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.8	2	1	19		Offense	18.1	28	24	22
Defense	18.1	28	24	22		Defense	31.8	2	1	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
St. Louis Rams	24	11	26	9		Denver Broncos	28	8	13	30
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	101	65	6	1002		Britt	40	21	2	312
Sanders	84	62	6	852		Austin	23	18	0	151
Welker	37	26	1	236		Bailey	11	5	0	60
Thomas	51	38	12	423		Cook	56	31	1	427

Quick Grind

•Vegas thinks the Broncos will smash the Rams – fire up the Broncos playmakers
•Avoid the Rams
•Depth Chart Update: Rams starting QB Shaun Hill this week

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning

There’s nothing to fear about this matchup, as the Rams allow the 7th-most FPPG to opposing QBs and grade out as the 8th-worst coverage unit on PFF. Manning is one of the elite-4 QB plays this week, and should be considered in both cash games and tournaments.

Broncos WRs

Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are elite plays this week (and most every week). The Rams have been rotating rookies and injury replacements in at CB all season just hoping something sticks, and to their credit they do have a few young, promising talents. But despite the glimmers of promise in their CB corps, the Rams still allow the 7th-most FPPG to WRs, and have been diced up both on the outside and in the slot. I love Demaryius this week against the underwhelming, inconsistent, and banged up Janoris Jenkins (and Trumaine Johnson, who has been poor since returning from injury a few weeks ago). Demaryius also gets a little Narrative Street boost in that he’s gone without a TD for 3 weeks, and Peyton has a habit of feeding those who haven’t scored of late (though having at least 7 catches for 105+ yards each of the last 3 weeks isn’t anything to whine about). Demaryius is a top-3 WR play this week; Sanders is a top-10 play as well.

TE Julius Thomas

Orange Julius made short work of the Raiders stingy ranking vs TEs last week, thumping them for 6-63-2. But despite his stellar performance, Julius has taken backseat to the Gronk/Graham hypetrain this week. The argument for Thomas as the clear #3 TE is his lack of targets and catches, and his TD-dependence – with his price having risen to just below Graham and Gronk on most sites, the lower volume of opportunities makes Thomas an inferior play. He also draws the most difficult matchup of the trio, and of most TEs this week: the Rams allow the 9th-fewest FPPG to TEs, and have allowed more than 50 receiving yards to only ONE TE this year. Granted, the Rams haven’t faced a TE of Thomas’ caliber, but their TE coverage is about the only thing the Rams defense has done right all year. While I greatly prefer Graham and Gronk to Thomas this week, so will most folks. As one of the only TEs with legitimate multi-TD upside on a weekly basis, Thomas is a strong pivot from the top-2 if you’re looking to differentiate in a tournament.

The Broncos RBs

Note: I’ll update this section if any further information about the Broncos RB workload becomes available

Montee Ball didn’t return last week. Ronnie Hillman was injured and is out this week. CJ Anderson blasted off for 163 total yards and a TD and looked great in the process. That was last week in a nutshell. Any questions? This week Hillman is likely out, Ball is likely back, and Anderson is likely the lead back… but we don’t know any of that for sure. Check back here for updates throughout the weekend, but for now let’s dig into what little information we do have.

The Broncos coaches have repeatedly mentioned that they’ll take the age-old ‘hot hand’ approach this week, and going forward in the wake of Hillman’s injury. The two-horse heat race is between Anderson and Ball, and Anderson presumably will get first crack as he SCORCHED the Raiders last week. Ball practiced in full, and also reportedly has dropped weight, so barring some report that he’ll see limited snaps or carries, he’s also in an excellent position. The current uncertainty means the best approach is to treat both as tournament-only plays – either could get hot, both can function as their own goal-line back, and both are used in the passing game, so each has sneaky value IF the Broncos use ONE as ‘the hot hand’ this week. You’ll find Anderson and Ball priced similarly on the major sites, and I would assume Anderson will be much higher owned than Ball. Avoid the situation entirely in cash games this week, but consider either RB as a roster-differentiating option in massive tournaments.

St. Louis Rams

Note: QB Shaun Hill replaces Austin Davis as the Rams starter this week.
Note: there are very few viable options on the Rams this week. Target players on other teams if possible.

TE Jared Cook

Your weekly ‘start TEs against the Broncos’ play is Jared Cook. Denver allowed 64 yards and a TD to Mychal Rivera last week, and is now allowing the 7th-most FPPG to opposing TEs. Cook, on the other hand, is coming off a game in which he recorded season highs in yards (84) and TDs (1). He should be a frequent target of his talent-deficient QB. Due to his matchup, Cook is a viable salary relief TE this week.

RB Tre Mason

Mason emerged from last week’s date with the Cardinals with 81 total yards on 18 touches, including an encouraging 4 catches on his 6 targets in the passing game. Unfortunately the horrible matchups just keep coming for Mason and the Rams, as this week the Broncos come to town. Perhaps unbeknownst to the lay person, the Broncos actually allow the fewest rushing yards to RBs, a paltry 52.0 per game, and grade out as PFF’s second-best run defense squad. Mason’s new role in the passing game is encouraging, but this is not the time to roster him. He’s a desperation tournament-play only.

WR Kenny Britt

Same as it ever was: ”Kenny Britt is the de-facto #1 WR with Brian Quick injured, and in theory should see enough targets to have some value as a punt WR. It hasn’t happened so far. There’s just no reason to risk rostering a Rams receiver this week (how about that alliteration though?)”

Kenny Britt + Shaun Hill + the top CB duo in the NFL [DOES NOT] = fantasy goodness. Avoid.

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