NFL Grind Down: Week 11 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-17 00:38:14

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Houston Texans						Cleveland Browns
Sun – 1:00 PM						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	42.5	19.75				-3	42.5	22.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.9	16	28	7		Offense	23.2	15	21	5
Defense	23.2	15	21	5		Defense	22.9	16	28	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	3	16	19	10		Houston Texans	16	23	31	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	82	48	1	563		Austin	47	31	2	387
Hopkins	65	42	4	684		Hawkins	69	39	1	504
Posey						Benjamin	28	14	3	246
Graham	19	12	0	122		Cameron	31	13	1	250

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total and two inconsistent offenses = limited appeal
•Both defenses could shut down opposing offense
•Injury Update: Texans RB Arian Foster UNLIKELY to play
•Depth Chart Update: Texans starting QB Ryan Mallett

Houston Texans

RB Arian Foster

Editor’s Note: Arian Foster (groin) has been ruled out for Week 11. Alfred Blue will start in his place.

After a 4 week stretch of dominance from Foster, the Zen RB is injured AGAIN, and we’re crossing fingers and toes in the hopes we’ll hear about his GTD status with enough time to react accordingly. Here’s the deal: if Foster plays, he’ll be a top-tier play based on matchup but also a definite re-injury risk. If Foster doesn’t play, then Alfred Blue seems likely to pick up the slack, and becomes an excellent salary relief play. The Browns allow the 6th-most rushing yards per game to RBs. They’ve also been a bit Jekyll & Hyde in run defense – shutting down a few weak running games (i.e. TEN), while being cracked open by others (JAC, TB). They won’t be able to contain Foster if he plays, but will obviously have more success against Blue. Either scenario will provide an exploitable play in tournaments this week, so keep an eye on the news.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins has emerged as the preferred Texans WR to target in DFS most weeks thanks to both his big play usage and frequent matchups vs his opponent’s lesser CBs. He’s also provided us with a very sneaky floor on full PPR sites, having hauled in less than 5 catches and 63 yards just once in his last 6 games. This week we’ll again use Hopkins as a matchup hammer, this time vs #GrindDown regular Buster Skrine. Skrine’s allowed the 6th-most yards and is tied for the most TD’s allowed. There’s a nuclear bomb joke here somewhere. Hopkins is a strong #2 WR play.

WR Andre Johnson

The last time we saw Andre Johnson was in Week 9, when he was setting everyone’s money on fire with a 2-12 (yes, 2 catches, 12 yards) disaster against the Eagles. While he’ll certainly bounce back, it probably won’t be this week against the coverage of Joe Haden. If you’re kind of crazy and want a super-contrarian WR play, nobody will be on Andre this week. But I would suggest avoiding him in favor of a WR with a better matchup.

QB Ryan Mallett

This is just a notice that the Texans are turning to Ryan Mallett at QB this week. I’m not going to offer any earth-shattering analysis here. Kid has a big arm. We don’t know if he can really use it. That combination adds a bit of risk and upside to the Texans passing attack. Unfortunately Mallett ISNT minimum price on the main sites somehow, which really limits his appeal as a stand-alone or stack play considering the more promising options priced around him. I would avoid Mallett this week.

Cleveland Browns

Key Injury Alert: CLE TE Jordan Cameron has not practiced all week and is unlikely to play on Sunday.
The Browns have few viable options this week. If possible, consider plays from other teams.

The Cleveland RB Committee

The Browns are pretty damn serious about using their full stable of RBs, with the top 3 RBs (Terrance West, Ben Tate, Isaiah Crowell) all getting 10+ carries and a TD. For a while I thought even Trent Richardson would suit up for a series last week. This is of course a nightmare for us, as the somewhat production from each ticks their prices up, but the distribution of work also lowers their ceilings. As I said last week, if you’re taking a Browns RB it should be Terrance West, who received more touches than the other two RBs combined (26) and drove his way to 94 yards and a TD last week. West is reasonably priced and is a viable salary relief option that isn’t likely to see a high ownership percentage

WR Andrew Hawkins

Baby Hawk was a GTD inactive last week, and has been limited in practice this week. Reports suggest he’ll be back this week, but keep an eye on his status. With Jordan Cameron likely out again this week, Hawkins will see a high volume of targets if he plays. He is a viable #3 WR or FLEX on full PPR sites.

Baby Hawk was a letdown in Week 9, hauling in just 3 of 8 targets for only 34 yards, and also missing part of the game with an injury. That injury has lingered, making Hawkins a GTD Thursday night. Should Hawkins play, he’ll again be the only receiving weapon the Browns have left. However, a less-than-100% Hawkins probably isn’t worth the risk this week considering some of the strong value plays at WR.

WR Taylor Gabriel

From last week: ”If Andrew Hawkins is OUT this week, the Browns passing game will be without a clear go-to option. But, that will also free up a chunk of extra targets for other Browns receivers. I don’t think Miles Austin will have much success on the outside, but big-play WR Taylor Gabriel could benefit from extra targets.”

Gabriel didn’t benefit from Hawkins being out last week, managing to catch 3 of just 5 targets for 31 yards last week. But the Browns surprisingly dominated that game and didn’t need to pass. If Hawkins is out again this week, the theory still remains – he should see more opportunities and has the best chance to turn them into DFS relevant production. You’re really reaching if you target Gabriel, but if Hawkins sits he has some upside as a salary relief tournament-only WR.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Philadelphia Eagles						Green Bay Packers
Sun – flexed to 4:25 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5	55.5	25.25				-5	55.5	30.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.0	4	8	13		Offense	30.8	5	3	18
Defense	30.8	5	3	18		Defense	31.0	4	8	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	13	18	20	14		Philadelphia Eagles	29	17	29	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Maclin	90	48	8	828		Nelson	84	56	8	889
Cooper	56	32	1	337		Cobb	61	44	10	650
Matthews	61	39	5	451		Adams	37	25	2	273
Celek	31	19	0	206		Quarless	27	17	3	145

Quick Grind

•Huge Vegas total (55) suggests likely shootout
•Target the Packers passing attack
•Avoid both defenses

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Mark Sanchez

Sanchez was excellent last week. He had full command of the offense, was decisive in his reads, movements, and throws, and proceeded to disintegrate the Panthers defense to the tune of 332 yards and 2 TDs. And the best part is, due to his performance coming on Monday night, Sanchez’ price escaped massive adjustment this week. So Sanchez again checks in as a premiere value play.

Unfortunately he also faces a stiff test from a REAL NFL defense, and a strong one at that. The Packers grade out as the 4th-best coverage team on PFF and allow the 9th-fewest passing yards to QBs. They also matchup well with Sanchez’ top playmakers. That’s not to say the Packers pass defense can’t be beat; it can. Brees dropped 317 and 3 TDs on them just a few weeks ago. But this will definitely test Chip Kelly’s system. I wouldn’t be surprised to even see him cook up a run-heavy game plan to attack the Packers main defensive weakness instead, and limit the throws that Sanchez has to make. I still think he’s a top-10 QB play, and offers strong value given his salary.

LeSean McCoy

McCoy took an unfortunate backseat to the Sanchez coming out party last week, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the opposite this week. The Packers struggle vs the run, allowing the 4th-most rushing yards per game (117.0) and grading out as the 8th-worst run-defense squad on PFF. With another week of a health and continuity on their already top-graded run-blocking offensive line, I think the Eagles will set out to bulldoze the Packers early. McCoys volume and production volatility keeps him from being a top play, but he’s still a top-6 option this week.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Maclin was surprisingly quiet last week, as Jordan Matthews saw the most targets and did by far the most damage. Hopefully that will scare people off Maclin, because he’s still capable of exploding in any matchup. The Packers have solid outside corners, but this system makes Maclin basically matchup proof. Maclin is a top-10 WR play that will likely be underowned this week.

WR Jordan Matthews

When I said last week that Matthews would ‘destroy’ the Panthers coverage, I really wasn’t thinking he’d go ballistic for 7-138-2. Apparently preseason and 2nd-team chemistry goes a long way, as the comfortable duo of Sanchez and Matthews were literally unstoppable last week. Matthews draws a much tougher matchup this week against Casey Hayward, one of the top slot cover men in the NFL, but he should still manage a high-floor thanks to Chip Kelly’s scheming. The opportunity and his price make Matthews a slam dunk play, but keep in mind he’ll probably be massively owned after last week.

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers is unreal. 315 yards and 6 TDS… in one half.

Rodgers faces a real defense this week, as the Eagles grade out as the 8th-best coverage unit on PFF. But does that really matter with Rodgers? The Eagles also already allow the 3rd-most FPPG to opposing QBs. That ranking may get even worse once Rodgers is done this week.

Rodgers is in the Big 4 cluster of top QBs that should be considered in both cash games and tournaments, and is my top QB play of the week.

WR Jordy Nelson

It was only fitting that Jordy follow up his 10-108-2 vs the Bears earlier in the season with 6-152-2 last week. Absolutely unreal.
This week Jordy will be set loose on the garbage outside CBs that we target here every week. Remember how Kelvin Benjamin vs Cary Williams turned out last week? I can’t even fathom what Rodgers and Jordy will drop on the poor soul. Jordy is a top-2 WR play this week.

WR Randall Cobb

Randall Cobb let down countless DFS snobs last week with JUST 4-72-1. This week Cobb will also face the bumbling outside CBs, but may see limited results vs Brandon Boykin in the slot. Boykin has allowed more than 33 receiving yards in just one game this season. While Cobb is basically matchup proof in terms of both his own talent and his production when targeted, Rodgers does like to hammer specific mismatches. He may simply prefer to attack the outside instead this week. Still, Cobb is constantly underowned in DFS, and is a definite top-10 play on full PPR sites this week.

RB Eddie Lacy

Eddie Lacy continues to produce modest rushing totals but MONSTER receiving production. This time he housed a 50-yard screen pass – his 2nd 50+-yard receiving play in the past two games. Unfortunately the receiving work is impacting his price: which won’t fall on account of his strong performances. The value just isn’t there with Lacy at his current prices, he’s just an overpriced #2 RB right now.

WR Davante Adams

Adams was basically the only guy to miss out on the fun last week, but the theory with him remains: If you want to get exposure to the Packers offense but don’t want to pay through the roof for their elite WRs, Adams is a fine salary relief play.

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks						Kansas City Chiefs
Sun – 1:00 PM						Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	42	20.5				-1	42	21.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.7	7	27	1		Offense	24.1	14	26	2
Defense	24.1	14	26	2		Defense	26.7	7	27	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	8	4	9	13		Seattle Seahawks	7	9	5	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	55	38	1	440		Bowe	58	39	0	491
Kearse	39	20	1	307		Jenkins	15	9	0	93
Lockette	11	7	2	123		Hammond	6	2	0	31
Willson	20	8	1	79		Kelce	44	34	4	438

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total and tight spread suggests both defenses will dominate
•Avoid both passing attacks

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch

I probably said ‘Dear God’ under my breath 2 or 3 times while watching Marshawn Beast Mode all over the Giants defense last week. And while we certainly can’t expect 4 TDs on a weekly basis, or again this season, Lynch remains a strong option this despite what the matchup suggests. The Chiefs are allowing the 3rd-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs – that should be enough to scare some off Lynch this week. But a deeper look reveals that the Chiefs are also 105 rushing yards per game (13th-most). This is an impressive number considering the lackluster rushing attacks the Chiefs have faced over the last several weeks, which include the Rams and Bills (whose RBs tallied over 200 total yards). With the Hawks pass game struggling, and now facing a shutdown pass defense, Lynch must be the engine of the offense this week. He’s a top-5 RB play this week.

QB Russell Wilson

Wilson rushed for 100+ yard/1 TD for the THIRD time last week vs the Giants (because giving up 80 TDs to Marshawn Lynch wasn’t enough punishment). As I frequently mention, Wilson’s rushing potential is tantalizing… we just can’t predict it very well. I wouldn’t expect a follow-up this week, against a Chiefs defense that has already limited several mobile QBs this season (Tannehill, Kaepernick, Mike Vick all held under 220 yards) and is allowing just the 6th-fewest FPPG to the position. Let others chase Wilson’s Week 10 rushing performance, while you wait for a tastier matchup.

WR Doug Baldwin

Baldwin had his third straight snoozefest of a performance last week, this time hauling in 4 of his 6 targets for just 31 yards. Granted, there wasn’t much need for passing in that game. But there won’t be much ROOM for passing in THIS game either. The Chiefs are PFF’s 9th-best coverage unit, and have finally found a viable CB across from Sean Smith in former-SEAHAWK Ron Parker (defensive REVENGE GAME, anyone?). The Chiefs have suffocated opposing WRs and allow the 9th-fewest FPPG to the position. There are better alternatives to Baldwin around his price range that offer considerably more upside this week.

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles

I talked about Charles as a sneaky tournament RB on Thursday’s NFL Game Night show. The Seahawks just lost DT Brandon Mebane for the season. I’m honestly not sure how they’ll replace him. Mebane is the Lynch-pin (see what I did there?) of the Hawks run defense. He’s a guy that doesn’t show up in the box score often, if ever – but his dominance at the point of attack disrupts the offense and sets up his teammates to make plays. To make matters worse for the Seahawks, MLB Bobby Wagner will be out again this week as well. Suddenly the Seahawks defense seems very soft up the middle. Charles is already a matchup-proof talent, but his matchup this week is now much more favorable than it seems. He’s a strong tournament play this week.

TE Travis Kelce

Kelce was another guy discussed at length on the NFL Game Night show. Baby Gronk might cause a Twitter apocalypse this week, as it appears the perfect storm is brewing for a breakout game.

First, Kelce has a sneaky favorable matchup against a Seahawks team that just can’t seem to figure out how to defend the TE – after they’re allowing the 4th-most FPPG and the MOST touchdowns per game to the position. The Seahawks will also likely be without All-Pro safety Kam Chancellor again this week.

Second, Chiefs HC had some oddly-worded (we think) compliments about his young TE this week, saying ‘he’s really kind of up to speed with the whole deal right now.’ Meaning, presumably, that Kelce is FINALLY READY TO PLAY MORE SNAPS LIKE A REAL NFL PLAYER. If you listen closely you can hear the sweet buzz of countless Twitter analysts rejoicing at the possibilities.

And finally, Anthony Fasano was injured last week, and hasn’t practiced this week. So there’s a very good chance that the ONLY roadblock to Travis Kelce’s playing time might be removed. If you’ve followed the Kelce story at all this season you probably understand why I describe this as a potential ‘Twitter apocalypse.’

If Kelce does get uninhibited playing time, he’ll almost certainly be a featured option in the passing game, and will have an awesome chance at a breakout game. I say ‘almost’ because Andy Reid. Assuming Fasano is out, and Reid decides to craft a legitimate matchup-exploiting NFL game plan this week, Kelce will be an excellent play for those not paying up for an elite TE.

WR Dwayne Bowe

Dwayne Bowe vs Richard Sherman… no thanks.

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