NFL Grind Down: Week 12

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-27 15:03:34

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

Cleveland Browns						Atlanta Falcons
Sun – 1:00 PM						Georgia Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	47	22				-3	47	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.6	18	22	9		Offense	23.8	13	10	17
Defense	23.8	13	10	17		Defense	21.6	18	22	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	22	32	25	9		Cleveland Browns	5	16	18	11
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Gordon						Jones	105	67	3	912
Austin	55	34	2	418		White	78	47	5	566
Hawkins	82	45	2	601		Douglas	28	19	1	209
Cameron	31	13	1	250		Toilolo	32	17	1	172

Quick Grind

•Fairly high Vegas total and tight spread suggests two inconsistent offenses should find success this week
•Josh Gordon Returns
•Falcons passing attack has yet to overcome offensive line woes for a full game

Cleveland Browns

WR Josh Gordon

It’s finally arrived; the moment we’ve all been waiting for: WR Josh Gordon returns to the Browns this week. And he picked one hell of a week to do it, with the Falcons’ 90% lackluster secondary on deck. The Falcons allow the 11th-most FPPG to opposing WRs and have given up at least 100 yards and a TD to a single WR in each of their last 3 games. And if their to-date ineptitude weren’t enough, the Falcons will also now be without their risk-taking #2 CB Rob Alford, who is out with a broken wrist. The loss of Alford basically leaves the Falcons with no choice but to use their only healthy defensive talent – CB Desmond Trufant – in a shadow coverage role. Trufant grades out as the NFL’s 9th-best cover corner on Pro Football Focus. The matchup is a concern, but Gordon should still lead the Browns in targets immediately, and will undoubtedly be fed on routes deep downfield. It’s been a while since we’ve seen what he’s capable of, but Josh Gordon is a premier big-play talent, and his upside alone makes him a strong play in his 2014 regular season debut this week.

RB Isaiah Crowell

The Crow has finally risen to the top in Cleveland, as the most talented member of the Browns RB stable cracked off 91 total yards on 16 touches against the Texans. The cherry on the top of this Sunday was the Brown’s release of RB Ben Tate, leaving one less committee member around to leech carries at the whim of the Browns coaching staff. With no Tate, and the starting gig seemingly his to lose, Crowell inherits a majority stake in a high-volume rushing attack that was regularly steamrolling opponents prior to C Alex Mack’s season-ending injury. So long as Crow can keep his hands on the ball (certainly not a guarantee at this point), the volume of work he’ll see, coupled with his ruthless style, will make Crowell a plug’n’play salary relief option until his price adjusts accordingly. He’s currently available at garage-sale prices throughout the industry, and now gets a date with the Falcons. You may recall my fondness toward pointing out how badly the Falcons defend RBs from previous editions of the #GrindDown – they remain the most favorable matchup for RBs.

The one worry here is that this backfield will continue to be fluid, with Crow and Terrance West either splitting work, or worse: trading off days where one or the other is ‘the guy’ due to various circumstances. It’s a tangible risk, but given Crow’s talent and garage-sale price, the risk also comes with top-10 RB upside. Crowell is a strong salary relief RB this week.

WR Andrew Hawkins

Just when I let my faith in Baby Hawk wane, the 5’7 jitterbug zipped through the Texans on his way to 6-97-1 on a team-high 13 targets. As much as I would love to overreact to Hawkins latest little burst of solid production, I instead have to caution Grinders that the return of Josh Gordon means that Baby Hawk will …. well, we don’t really know what Gordon coming back will mean. I assume Hawk will be confined to the short, underneath routes more than ever before with Gordon handling intermediate and deep work. Hawkins is also unlikely to finish many weeks as the top target in this offense, which will cap his weekly upside. The high-percentage work will give Hawkins a sneaky floor, but with Gordon back there might not even be scraps left over for Hawkins once the Browns roll into the red-zone. Be cautious rostering Hawkins this week.

Atlanta Falcons

WR Julio Jones

I sing the same sad song about Julio every week – though the Falcons try with all their might to both manufacture touches for their stud playmaker AND feature him downfield, the Falcons reliably unreliable offensive line falls apart before Jones can work his way deep. Opposing defenses have begun to bottle up the short stuff as well. The result is a shockingly similar picture over the last several weeks:

I call the table above ‘When Game Plans Go Awry’. While Julio has been providing steady (albeit unspectacular) production, he also hasn’t been the human highlight-reel we’re used to seeing. When QB Matt Ryan is under constant duress and/or knocked off his spot, the big-play attempts misfire. Offensive line woes aside, Julio has a simultaneously encouraging and discouraging matchup vs the Browns this week. Depending on the Browns defensive plan, Julio will primarily see one of two corners in coverage this week. Behind Door Number 1: a corner who tied for the league-lead with 9 TDs allowed in 2013, and is also currently tied for the league-lead this year with 6 TDs allowed. Behind Door Number 2: one of the league’s top cover men, this shutdown corner started slowly in 2014 but has found his old form recently and is tied for the 3rd-best coverage grade since Week 7. If you didn’t crack the code yet, the CBs in question here are Buster Skrine (Door #1) and Joe Haden (Door #2). As I mentioned, Haden is back to lockdown-mode after a shaky first few games, and will undoubtedly be shadowing either Julio or Roddy White this week (Skrine gets whoever Haden doesn’t shadow). The question is: which WR will Haden cover? Since we likely won’t have the answer to that question prior to kickoff, we have to consider Haden a risk to BOTH WRs this week. And although Julio’s price is fair this week, there are more favorable plays in his price range. Julio is still a top-10 WR play this week (and is All Systems Go if we hear that Haden will shadow Roddy White), but the matchup concerns tilt the scale in favor of his peers.

WR Roddy White

Roddy is quietly in the midst of a month-long heater, and in the last two game alone he’s posted at least 6 catches, 72 yards, and a TD. Last week in particular it seemed that Roddy was settling into a high-volume ‘clutch’ kind of role with his routes and usage. It’s certainly encouraging for his prospects going forward, but White has the same concern this week as his partner Julio Jones – the possibility of shadow coverage from CB Joe Haden. Roddy might even be a more likely candidate than Julio to draw Haden’s coverage, as the ace corner should be able to corral the aging White much easier than the bigger and faster Julio; the Browns could then roll coverage toward Julio and devote a safety over him all game. Treat the White situation the same as Julio Jones – if we hear exactly who Joe Haden will cover, roster the other WR against frequent #GrindDown target Buster Skrine. Otherwise, treat each Falcon as a contrarian tournament option thanks to the threat of Haden.

QB Matt Ryan

Ryan was decidedly ‘meh’ for what seemed like the 14th straight game last week vs the Panthers. As alluded to in the WR sections above, Ryan just can’t seem to string together a solid performance thanks to his patchwork offensive line. After disappointing against both the Bucs and the Panthers, two teams who have bottom-6 team grades in pass coverage on PFF, do we really think he’s going to magically right the ship against the Browns’ top-graded coverage unit? Ryan will essentially be without one of his two favorite toys due to Joe Haden’s coverage, and the Browns can then simply sell out to cover up whoever Haden doesn’t follow. It’s not a recipe for a bounceback. Ryan is an unappealing QB play this week.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

New York Jets						Buffalo Bills
Mon – 7:00 PM						Ford Field, Detroit
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	39	17.25				-4.5	39	21.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.4	29	31	8		Offense	20.0	23	17	29
Defense	20.0	23	17	29		Defense	17.4	29	31	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	7	4	19	10		New York Jets	32	7	22	30
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Decker	68	43	4	450		Watkins	84	45	5	649
Harvin	53	39	0	307		Woods	64	36	2	361
Kerley	55	26	1	237		Hogan	31	25	2	307
Cumberland	31	15	1	154		Chandler	45	26	1	307

Quick Grind

•NOTE: THIS GAME HAS BEEN RESCHEDULED TO MONDAY NIGHT AND RELOCATED TO DETROIT
•Lowest Vegas total of the week, which could change due to game relocation
•When these two teams met earlier in the year, the Bills piled up 4 passing TDs on just 17 passing attempts
•The Jets secondary still sucks

Buffalo Bills

WR Sammy Watkins

I suggested Watkins would struggle vs the Bills last Thursday, and his 3 catch, 32 yard performance gave Watkins his second straight game of 4 or less catches and less than 35 yards. I hope people are scared off as a result – because they shouldn’t be. Watkins faces the helpless Jets secondary this week, who Watkins himself zapped for 3-157-1 in Week 8. He’s the top play in this game and a top-15 WR overall this week.

Bills RBs

It’s tough to justify rostering a Bills RB this week against the Jets stonewall run defense. The Jets allow just 16.6 FPPG to RBs, the 6th-fewest in the NFL. Bryce Brown was impressive in the passing game last week, tallying 7-57 through the air but managing just 14 yards on 6 carries. He’ll likely see much less work this week as Fred Jackson is on track to return. Jackson should immediately handle most of the carries, but his return caps the upside of both backs. It won’t be easy sledding for FJax or Brown, and would only consider FJax as a contrarian tournament option this week.

QB Kyle Orton

Orton gets a mention because of his 238 yard, 4 TD bombing of the Jets back in Week 8, where he needed just 17 passes to do all that damage. On matchup alone, Orton is a viable punt QB in tournaments this week.

New York Jets

WR Percy Harvin

Harvin produced just 50 total yards when these two teams met in Week 8. I expect more from Harvin this week, if for no other reason than the massive number of opportunities he’s getting. The risk with Harvin is that his rushing attempts go nowhere, and that he’s unable to parlay his high-percentage targets into big plays after the catch. But all the manufactured touches at least guarantee that Harvin will get you something, while also having multiple chances for big plays. Harvin’s role makes him #3 WR in tournaments.

WR Eric Decker

Decker turned 7 catches into just 40 yards vs these Bills back in Week 8. This time around, Decker will again handle short and intermediate routes against the Bills inconsistent outside corners. After being torched early in the season, the Bills CBs have tightened in recent weeks; they’ve shut down weak passing attack but also shown they’re still susceptible to beatings from talented WRs. Decker is a great bet for around 10 targets, which he’ll likely turn into 60 yards and a TD as usual. He’s an unspectacular #3 WR this week.

QB Mike Vick

Vick seemed on his way to a big day back in Week 10 as the Jets marched down the field with ease on the Steelers… but completely took his foot off the gas in the second half and finished with just 132 passing yards. He gets a polar opposite matchup this week against a top-tier Bills D that generates a ruthless pass-rush via their defensive line; the dominance of their line is largely to thank for the Bills allowing just the 4th-fewest FPPG to opposing QBs, as QBs are constantly disrupted and moved around by the rush. Vick’s blood-pressure raising ball security makes him an especially risky play vs the Bills rush this week — he is a contrarian tournament QB only.

RB Chris Ivory

Ivory continues to cede work to Chris Johnson, an upside killer for the volume- and TD-dependent Ivory. The Bills are also a tough matchup for RBs, allowing the 5th-fewest FPPG to RBs, but they’ve been cracked open by Jamaal Charles and Lamar Miller in their last 2 games. I doubt that trend continues. and doubt that Ivory can replicate his 43 yard, 2 TD performance this week. He has limited upside this week given the matchup and the presence of Johnson.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2