NFL Grind Down Week 12: OAK vs. KC

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-22 16:59:50

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs						Oakland Raiders
Thu – 8:25 PM						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-7	42.5	24.75				7	42.5	17.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.1	12	29	2		Offense	15.2	32	28	32
Defense	15.2	32	28	32		Defense	24.1	12	29	2
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	17	29	10	17		Kansas City Chiefs	11	6	8	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bowe	62	41	0	509		Jones	76	49	3	498
Jenkins	15	9	0	93		Holmes	53	27	4	419
Hammond	6	2	0	31		Moore	27	12	0	115
Kelce	49	37	4	475		Rivera	57	37	3	326

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total with the Raiders 7-point home dogs
•If you’re playing Thursday slates you’ll have access to two top plays: KC RB Jamaal Charles & the KC Defense
•Avoid the Raiders

NOTE: Sorry for the late and limited analysis today Grinders, I’m traveling to LA for FanDuel’s Playboy Football Championship. Tonight’s game is pretty straight-forward, and you’ll find everything you need to know below – good luck!

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles

Congratulations to viewers of last Thursday’s NFL Game Night show, regular #GrindDown readers, and other savvy folks who rostered Jamaal Charles last week despite his ‘bad’ matchup against the Seahawks – Charles handsomely rewarded those few brave Grinders to the tune of a season-high 178 total yards and 2 TDs. As I suggested last week, Charles was able to exploit a Seahawks defense that had just lost a key defender, DL Brandon Mebane, as well as other critical pieces; and he made it look EASY. Add a Seahawks feather to the cap of the Chiefs stud RB, who now has at least 70 rushing yards and 1 TD in each of his last five games. The road gets even easier for Charles this week as he travels to Oakland, home of the 2nd-most generous defense to opposing RBs. The Raiders have been the DFS equivalent of Christmas morning to owners of opposing RBs: they gift-wrap 119 rushing yards and 1.1 rushing TDs to the position each week (both 2nd-worst in the NFL), and have allowed at least 1 TD in all but TWO games this season. And in the spirit of the season, the Raiders have been especially giving of late, allowing 160+ total yards to a single RB in 3 of their last 5 games. There’s not much else to say here. If you’re playing Thursday games, lock in Charles as a top-3 RB play who could easily finish as the week’s best.

KC Defense

The KC Defense is the 2nd of two clear core plays on Thursday. For as generous as the Raiders defense has been toward opposing RBs, the Raiders offense at least deserves a participation ribbon for how many fantasy points they give up to opposing Team Defenses. The Raiders have given up at least 3 turnovers in 3 of their last 4 games, and have allowed at least 1 turnover in all but TWO games this season. And in case you need any extra assurance, the Raiders are also dead last in both yards per game and points per game. The combination of stagnant offense and frequent turnovers makes the Raiders a tasty DFS dish that has had us coming back for more all season. The Chiefs are a top-tier DFS Defense this week.

TE Travis Kelce

With playing-time blockade Anthony Fasano out last week, AND_ a sneaky matchup vs the Seahawks on deck, AND Chiefs HC Andy Reid making comments about how his young TE was “really kind of up to speed with the whole deal right now”, it certainly seemed like the perfect storm might be brewing for a Travis Kelce breakout last week. But Hurricane Kelce never even reached our shores. To be fair, Kelce did lead his team in receiving, but that ‘feat’ was good for just 3-37 in a week where owners expected much more. This week Kelce faces a Raiders defense that has been able to limit most TEs this season, allowing the 3rd-fewest receptions per game and the 13th-fewest FPPG to the position. Of course, this same Raiders defense is just two weeks removed from being bombed for 6-63-2 by Julius Thomas. The Raiders can be exploited by TEs, and Kelce could blow up if given the opportunity – which makes Kelce an intriguing but risky tournament option this week.

WR Dwayne Bowe

After nearly a month of modest (but not horrible) production, and fresh off a game in which he went for a season-high 8-93 vs the Bills, Dwayne Bowe ran into the coverage of Richard Sherman last week and was predictably neutralized (2 catches, 18 yards). But any #1 WR facing the Raiders deserves a hypothetical place on our radar. If there was ever a week for Bowe to finally get his 1st TD of the year… it was probably Week 8 vs STL, or Week 9 vs NYJ… but he faces a depleted secondary this week, too! I don’t think it’s necessary to roster Bowe this week, but he is the WR to own in this game (for whatever that’s worth).

Oakland Raiders

TE Mychal Rivera

Oddly the top Raiders option in DFS for the past few weeks, Rivera did as most Raiders do and underwhelmed last week, hauling in just 3 catches for 40 yards. Of concern for Rivera is that he saw just over half the weekly targets he had over the last three weeks. Of even more concern is that Rivera now tangles with Eric Berry and the stingy Chiefs defense, which have limited TEs to just 2.9 receptions and 30.8 receiving yards per game – both the lowest in the NFL. Rivera does offer salary relief but so do other TEs that face easier matchups – he is a risky punt TE this week.

Raiders WRs

In recent weeks we’ve seen the Raiders WRs go from possible plays due to garbage-time, to IMPOSSIBLE plays due to playing like garbage. The Raiders WRs have predictably struggled against some very strong secondaries (DEN, SEA), and now face a defense allowing the 9th-fewest FPPG to WRs that seems to be gelling vs the pass of late. Though Andre Holmes has demonstrated big-play potential with consistent targets, and James Jones has at times been a high-floor play, neither is worth the risk tonight.

RB Latavius Murray

I would probably endure most forms of torture if it meant not having to roster any Raiders in DFS tonight. But, if for some reason I HAD to roster one, I would play Latavius Murray. Latte-who, you ask? Latavius Murray is the other other Raiders RB, stuck behind both Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew for most of the season. An absolute size/speed freak of nature, Latte is ostensibly the Raiders RB of the Future — a future that is rapidly approaching as the Raiders struggle to notch even a single win this season. Murray’s unveiling began last week as he ripped off 47 yards on just 4 rushes, and added 3-16 through the air. Reports suggest Murray has seen a larger load during practice this week as a result, and is in line for a larger share of the work on Thursday. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Raiders coaches give Murray the first crack at a ‘hot hand’ backfield this week. Against a Chiefs team allowing 105 rushing yards per game, Murray is a YOLO tournament-only play.