NFL Grind Down: Week 12 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-24 17:19:54

Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers

Washington Redskins						San Francisco 49ers
Sun – 4:25 PM						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		8.5	44	17.75				-8.5	44	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.4	22	19	11		Offense	21.1	20	16	15
Defense	21.1	20	16	15		Defense	20.4	22	19	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	3	3	15	18		Washington Redskins	30	5	21	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon	64	43	3	464		Crabtree	76	43	4	509
Jackson	67	40	4	819		Boldin	83	56	3	688
Roberts	53	27	2	287		Johnson	41	32	3	407
Reed	29	24	0	229		Davis	34	18	2	176

Quick Grind

•Modest Vegas total but SF is highly favored
•SF is a concerning matchup for the Redskins passing attack

Washington Redskins

QB Robert Griffin III

RG3 was the Bust of the Week and pretty much broke my heart last week. He doesn’t look like he remembers how to play QB… AGAIN. RG3 threw 2 picks and took 6 sacks against a remarkably unremarkable Bucs defense. His coach even called out his play. And now RG3 faces the 49ers. The Niners are allowing the 5th-fewest FPPG to QBs, will have a more fearsome pass rush going forward thanks to the return of LB Aldon Smith, and are fresh off forcing 5 INTs of Giants QB Eli Manning. It’s… not a great situation for RG3. He’s no more than a contrarian tournament play.

RB Alfred Morris

Morris was able to find success last week despite the ineffectiveness of the Redskins passing game, ripping the Bucs for 132 total yards on 22 touches. Unfortunately now he faces a 49ers defense allowing the 4th-fewest FPPG to RBs and just 74.1 rushing yards per game. Morris is volume-dependent and TD-dependent, and is unlikely to see the necessary volume OR the scoring chances he needs if this game goes the way most expect. Morris is a contrarian play at best.

WR DeSean Jackson

As RG3 went, so did DJax last week, finishing with just 4-35 vs the Bucs. If there’s a Redskins WR to target this week, it’s Jackson, but he can’t be expected to do much if his QB can’t get it together. Like the other Redskins, DJax is tournament-only.

TE Niles Paul

Paul is in line to replace TE Jordan Reed this week, and has the best passing matchup against the 49ers. The 49ers will now officially be without All-World LB Patrick Willis for the rest of the season. They’re currently allowing the 8th-fewest FPPG to TEs, but that ranking should tumble as more non-Willis games take place. Paul is a salary relief tournament play this week.

WR Pierre Garcon

Avoid Garcon until RG3 1) Shows he can play QB again, and 2) Garcon is more heavily involved in the offense.

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

Kaepernick has as good of a matchup as any QB this week. The Redskins are allowing the 2nd-most FPPG to QBs. Josh McCown just navigated them easily for 296 yards and 2 TDs. They gave up a massive rushing performance to Russell Wilson. Yet even with sooooo much in his favor, it’s still hard to trust Kaep to truly exploit this matchup. The upside is tantalizing, but the volatility is real. Kaep is an ideal tournament QB this week, with a low floor but massive ceiling.

WR Anquan Boldin

Boldin was quiet but consistent last week with 5 catches for 53 yards vs the Giants. This week, Boldin should have no problem overcoming the exploitable Redskins corners. Boldin is a solid standalone #2 WR option, as well as a top play to stack with Kaepernick.

WR Michael Crabtree

Narrative Street paid off again last week (kind of), with whiny Michael Crabtree leading the 49ers with 3-85-1. Like Boldin, I don’t think Crab will have a problem outplaying the coverage in this game… but his success will be dependent on Kaepernick’s. Crab doesn’t usually out-target Boldin but should produce on his usual 8ish targets – he’s a #3 WR play this week.

RB Frank Gore

Old Man Frank simply refuses to die, with a 114 total yard performance last week vs the Giants. The Redskins are much stouter vs the run than their NFC East rivals, however: the Skins allow just the 6th-fewest FPPG to RBs. Use caution rostering Frank this week. He should have the game script on his side, but shouldn’t be considered more than a limited-upside #2 RB.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Dallas Cowboys						New York Giants
Sun – 8:30 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	47.5	25.25				3	47.5	22.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.1	7	11	3		Offense	20.5	21	14	18
Defense	20.5	21	14	18		Defense	26.1	7	11	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	23	31	7	22		Dallas Cowboys	12	13	3	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	94	56	8	793		Randle	94	50	2	521
Williams	48	27	6	426		Beckham
Beasley	21	16	0	143		Parker	33	22	1	272
Witten	57	39	3	431		Donnell	61	44	6	437

Quick Grind

•Big Vegas total (47) and tight spread means…
•Injury Update: Giants RB Rashad Jennings is NOT on the injury report this week – target him as usual

Dallas Cowboys

RB DeMarco Murray

DeMarco Murray could make this an ugly game all by himself. Coming off a bye, Murray faces a Giants defense that allows the 5th-most FPPG and 108.8 rushing yards per game to RBs. The Giants have been especially porous of late as well, following up their Week 10 163 yard, 4 TD bulldozing at the hands of Marshawn Lynch, with a 114 total yard beating by the venerable Frank Gore last week. Murray is a top-2 RB play with both a high-floor and high-ceiling.

WR Dez Bryant

I pegged Dez as a monster game candidate back in Week 10’s #GrindDown, and he delivered a preposterous 6-158-2 gem. The Cowboys explosive talent faces a much stiffer matchup this time week, but reports suggest that the Giants won’t be shadowing Dez with stud CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. That’s a mistake. Dez was already able to bully this defense for 9-151 back in Week 7, and now the Giants don’t want to use their top defender on him? We saw what Dez can do against replacement level defenders in his Week 10 explosion. Dez is a top-5 WR play this week.

WR Terrance Williams

Williams is just a tournament-only #3 WR vs the Giants, as the game plan will revolve around DeMarco and Dez, with few extra targets to go around.

New York Giants

WR Odell Beckham JR

Even with Eli Manning throwing 5 INTs last week, #GrindDown favorite Odell Beckahm STILL managed 6 catches for 93 yards. The Cowboys don’t have a CB capable of containing ODB. But they do have a clock-killing rushing attack that could limit the Giants’ and ODB’s opportunities. ODB probably won’t see 13 targets like he did last week, but is still a rock-solid #2 WR.

RB Rashad Jennings

Jennings didn’t do much in the box score but still stepped immediately into a full workload with 22 touches in his return from injury last week. He’s back to being the engine of the Giants’ offense. His matchup vs the Cowboys looks stingier than it really is – they allow the 12th-least FPPG to RBs but have been touched up by RBs of late. They’ve given up at least 70 yards and a TD to each of the past 3 starting RBs they’ve faced, and have given up 2 TDs to RBs in each of their last two games. Teams are able to move the ball against the Cowboys, and the RBs punch in the scores. I think Jennings follows these recent trends and is a solid #2 RB this week.

TE LARRY ‘LEGEND’ DONNELL

The Legend continued to produce last week with 3-54-1 vs the Giants. He now faces the 2nd-most generous defense to opposing TEs, whom the Legend himself cracked open for 7-90 in their previous meeting. The matchup is excellent for Donnell, making him a top-6 TE play and popular salary relief alternative.

WR Rueben Randle

Rueben Randle finally produced last week with 7 catches for 112 yards, against a tough 49ers defense no less. The story with Randle is his crazy target totals – at least 9 in every game since Week3, and a crazy 15 last week. Randle hasn’t been very productive with these targets, but the opportunities make him tournament viable against a beatable Cowboys secondary.

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints

Baltimore Ravens						New Orleans Saints
Mon – 8:30 PM						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	49.5	23.25				-3	49.5	26.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.1	7	13	7		Offense	26.1	7	6	4
Defense	26.1	7	6	4		Defense	26.1	7	13	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	26	21	26	1		Baltimore Ravens	19	1	29	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	56	27	6	446		Colston	58	34	1	536
Smith						Cooks	69	53	3	550
Brown	13	10	0	93		Stills	42	31	2	431
Daniels	49	35	3	348		Graham	78	59	7	623

Quick Grind

•2nd-highest Vegas total & 3-point spread suggests both defenses will be exploited
•The Ravens defense can be exploited through the air
•Injury Update: Saints WR Brandin Cooks is OUT for the year

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

Forsett blasted the Titans for 112 yards and 2 TDs prior to his team’s bye. He continues to be a dual-threat stud RB that is overlooked weekly. This week Forsett draws the Saints, who deceptively allow just the 17th-most FPPG to RBs, but have given up monster RB performance that include a 165 yard bashing by Bengals RB Jeremy Hill last week. Forsett is a top-10 RB this week.

WR Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith has been a #GrindDown Matchup Hammer several times this season, and he fits the bill again this week against a Saints defense that has struggled to field effective coverage opposite CB Keenan Lewis. Smith is a perpetual big play threat that Flacco looks to with confidence, and he’ll be found streaking downfield against horrid Saints CB Corey White. White has the worst coverage grade of all qualifying CBs on PFF. It’s possible that Torrey sees Keenan Lewis instead given both his recent success and Steve Smith’s lack of it. That risk makes me more hesitant about Torrey than I should be based on the matchup. Regardless, Torrey is an ideal #3 WR for tournaments.

WR Steve Smith

Steve Smith had another snoozer back in Week 10 and just hasn’t been effective in weeks. He’ll likely evade the shadow coverage of Saints CB Keenan Lewis thanks to how he’s schemed around, but Smith’s ineffectiveness regardless of the competition is concerning. He’s a high-risk tournament-only #3 WR.

TE Owen Daniels

Daniels is boring, but he sees a lot of targets for a punt TE (9 targets in 2 of the last 3 games), and is a viable play if you’re deciding to fully punt the position.

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees

Brees surprisingly underwhelmed in the box score at home vs the Bengals last week. The Bengals, like other teams that have fared well vs the Saints, focused on preventing Brees from attacking them deep. It’s made Brees look a lot more pedestrian than he is. Thankfully Brees gets what should be a sneaky Get Well Game this week against a Ravens secondary that is approaching Jets status with their injuries and underwhelming play (pretty uncanny resemblance actually). Their lockdown of the Titans aside, the Ravens have simply been a different team since they lost shutdown CB Jimmy Smith for the season. Brees should have no problem navigating the replacement-level talents the Ravens currently trot out – he’s a top-5 QB play this week.

TE Jim Graham

I’m a little worried about Graham’s matchup this week. The Ravens allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to TEs, haven’t allowed 60 or more receiving yards to a TE this season, and haven’t allowed more than 37 yards to a TE in their last 4 games. Teams realize that if the sell out to blanket Graham, it’s awfully hard for Brees to beat them. Expect the Ravens to employ the same strategy with their already-strong TE coverage. Graham is still the no-brainer #2 TE this week, but the matchup is a concern.

RB #AngryIngram

Ingram slowed down a little last week with just 97 total yards. Unfortunately now Ingram faces the elite Ravens run defense. The Ravens allow just the 2nd-fewest FPPG to RBs, and haven’t allowed over 85 total yards to a RB since Week 2. Ingram has a high floor thanks to his monstrous workloads (30 touches last 3 games), but the matchup seriously limits his upside. Ingram’s more of a tournament-only play this week.

Saints WRs

With the loss of WR Brandin Cooks to IR, there’s going to be some shuffling of targets and roles in the Saints WR corps. I’ve seen arguments for both Marques Colston and Kenny Stills as the main beneficiary. I think they’ll both be better off. Colston should be more frequently targeted as a short-intermediate chain-mover; Stills should finally see consistent target volume and his big-play savvy will be relied upon more than ever. I prefer Stills to Colston this week, as I have a hard time NOT wanting to target the Ravens replacement ‘cornerbacks’ on the outside, who should have little chance of containing the Saints. Colston is a high-floor #3 WR, whereas Stills is an ideal tournament play.

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!