NFL Grind Down: Week 12 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-23 13:05:36

St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers

St. Louis Rams						San Diego Chargers
Sun – 4:05 PM						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	43.5	19.5				-4.5	43.5	24
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.5	27	24	23		Offense	21.8	17	7	31
Defense	21.8	17	7	31		Defense	18.5	27	24	23
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	18	18	11	3		St. Louis Rams	25	8	28	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	47	25	3	440		Allen	86	55	1	537
Austin	27	20	0	161		Floyd	50	32	4	574
Bailey	14	8	0	86		Royal	46	28	5	401
Cook	61	34	1	446		Gates	57	38	9	477

Quick Grind

•Rams defense is peaking right now

St. Louis Rams

Note: there are very few viable options on the Rams this week. Target players on other teams if possible.

RB Tre Mason

What could Tre Mason do with a full complement of touches? Last week, the answer was: rip off 113 yards vs the Broncos. Mason is a fun RB to watch, and surprised basically everyone by blasting a tough Broncos run defense. This week’s test is certainly easier, with the Chargers allowing the 12th-most FPPG to RBs, although do note that they are also allowing just 86.0 rushing yards per game. The biggest draw to Mason is his bargain price, making him a strong value RB this week.

The Rams Passing Attack

WR Kenny Britt is the top Rams receiver after he finally broke out for 4-128-1 last week. Use caution though: after his 63-yard TD, which was a combination of poor play by a rookie CB and miscommunication on the back end, Britt was largely locked down. Britt is without question the go-to guy at WR, but he’s risky nonetheless.
TE Jared Cook flopped last week and draws a tough matchup this week, but is the only other ‘weapon’ the Rams have in the passing game.

San Diego Chargers

QB Philip Rivers

After watching Rivers struggle to just 193-1-0 vs the RAIDERS last week and reading questionable comments about his health, I’m a little concerned about Phil Rivers. The matchup is certainly prime though: the Rams allow the 7th-most FPPG to QBs, and have given up MONSTER games on multiple occasions. But I tend to shy away from QBs who are playing through injury, and would take at least 10 QBs ahead of Rivers this week.

TE Antonio Gates

While Gates is basically locked into the tier just below guys like Gronk and Graham, he draws a tough matchup vs the coverage of Alec Ogletree this week. The Rams allow just the 9th-fewest FPPG to TEs. Gates TD potential is undeniable, but if you’re looking for alternatives to the top TEs this week, I would drop even further than Gates and save the salary.

RB Ryan Mathews

Matthews looked awfully good in his return last week, turning 16 rushes into 70 yards against the Raiders. With no reports of setbacks, I expect Matthews to be leaned on even more in this game. The one caveat is that the Rams play sneaky stout run defense and allow the 8th-fewest FPPG to RBs this season. It’s not an ideal spot for Mathews, but the Chargers might minimize Rivers’ workload this week by turning to the run game instead. Mathews is a viable #2 RB that will be low-owned this week.

WR Keenan Allen

The good for Allen last week was a whopping 13 targets and a strong 8 catches – the bad was that he turned those catches into just 63 yards. Allen is purely the short, high-percentage workhorse in the Chargers passing game. I don’t like the Rams chances of covering him, but it’s just really hard to get excited about Allen’s ceiling right now. He’s a high-floor #2 or #3 WR this week.

WR Malcom Floyd

As always, Malcom Floyd is a tournament-specific option thanks to his ability to pay off his salary with just a few catches. Case in point, last week: Floyd dropped 4-44-1 on the Raiders. The Rams corners have been inconsistent and their safeties have been horrid in coverage, so Floyd is in play in tournaments again this week.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals						Seattle Seahawks
Sun – 4:05 PM						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	42	17.75				-6.5	42	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.7	14	12	27		Offense	26.0	10	25	1
Defense	26.0	10	25	1		Defense	23.7	14	12	27
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	4	15	1	26		Arizona Cardinals	6	2	23	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	69	46	2	658		Baldwin	64	44	2	485
Floyd	57	26	4	454		Kearse	48	25	1	361
Brown	66	34	5	468		Lockette	11	7	2	123
Carlson	41	23	1	254		Willson	23	11	1	130

Quick Grind

•Two divisional foes + two strong defenses = 2nd-lowest Vegas total of the week
•Avoid both teams’ passing games

Arizona Cardinals

RB Andre Ellington

Ellington was predictably ineffective against the Lions last week, managing just 66 total yards. His matchup this week LOOKS to be another tough one, but the Seahawks were just obliterated for 178 total yards and 2 TDs Jamaal Charles last week. I was one of the only people to point out the importance of the Seahawks losing Brandon Mebane (among other defensive injuries of late) – and Charles emphasized it. I don’t think Ellington is capable of the same, but he certainly benefits from the limping Hawks front. Ellington is a risky #2 RB with sneaky upside this week.

Cardinals Receivers

Yes, Drew Stanton was pretty damn effective last week, and yes, he breathed new life into WR Michael Floyd. But now the Cardinals face the Seahawks. None of the Cardinals receivers can be trusted as more than contrarian tournament options against this secondary. If targeting one, I would probably let others chase Michael Floyd’s points from last week, and instead close my eyes while selecting WR John Brown. We’ve seen the Seahawks get torched deep by WRs that fit Brown’s profile this season (DeSean Jackson, anyone?), and Brown can constantly be found attempting to lift the defense’s lid. It’s a total prayer, but it’s my favorite Cardinals play this week.

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch

The Beasting continued for Marshawn Lynch last week as he cracked open the Chiefs for 124 rushing yards. The opponent doesn’t really matter for Lynch, who will see consistent workloads regardless as the engine of the Hawks offense. The Cardinals do allow the FEWEST FPPG and just 66.9 rushing yards per game, but Lynch will get his. He’s a top-8 RB who will likely be overlooked due to matchup this week.

QB Russell Wilson

Wilson continues to buoy his box scores with rushing production, racking up another 71 rushing yards on just 8 rushes last week. The rushing is the only thing saving him as a DFS play, frankly, but at the same time it’s becoming so consistent that Wilson remains viable on a weekly basis. I do worry that the Cardinals will have a better idea of how to defend Russ than most other teams, and shouldn’t be caught off-guard by either his scrambles or his designed runs. Wilson’s upside makes him tournament viable, but the matchup is worrisome this week.

Seahawks WRs

It’s hard to get behind any Hawks WRs this week given their marginalized role in the Seahawks game plan, and the fact that the Cardinals completely shut down Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate last week. If you must take a Hawks WR, Doug Baldwin draws the most favorable matchup while he’s in the slot. He’s a risky tournament play. I wouldn’t touch any other Hawks WR due to Pat Peterson and Antonio Cromartie on the outside.

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

Miami Dolphins						Denver Broncos
Sun – 4:25 PM						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	49	21				-7	49	28
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.9	11	15	12		Offense	29.3	5	1	22
Defense	29.3	5	1	22		Defense	24.9	11	15	12
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	27	9	14	28		Miami Dolphins	2	14	6	2
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	82	44	6	557		Thomas	111	72	6	1105
Landry	55	42	3	400		Sanders	92	67	7	954
Hartline	47	29	1	321		Welker	43	30	1	264
Clay	58	39	2	346		Thomas	54	40	12	426

Quick Grind

•Top-3 Vegas total suggests that these two top defenses won’t slow the offensive fireworks too much
•Keep an eye on the status of DEN WR Emmanuel Sanders & TE Julius Thomas

Miami Dolphins

WR Mike Wallace

Wallace has a tough draw this week against a Broncos defense that features TWO lockdown corners. However as I’ve mentioned repeatedly this season, Wallace is constantly on the move and schemed into favorable scenarios by Fins OC and Chip Kelly disciple Bill Lazor. It mitigates some risk, and Wallace has beaten shutdown corners before this season. Ultimately Wallace is a solid #2 WR this week, and will likely see a low ownership due to the matchup.

RB Lamar Miller

Miller surprised me by racking up 98 total yards last week, and looking pretty healthy and spry while doing so. The problem for Miller this week is the matchup: the Broncos allow the LEAST rushing yards per game, a measly 52, and the 10th-fewest FPPG to RBs. Of course, the Broncos also were just cracked open for nearly 130 yards by rookie RB Tre Mason last week. Miller’s upside is capped by the matchup this week, but he at least makes a solid #2 RB.

WR Jarvis Landry

I love this kid. Landry had another workmanlike performance 5-46-1 vs the Bills. He’s becoming arguably more valuable to the Dolphins passing game than stud WR Mike Wallace, as the quick-hitting chain-mover that Ryan Tannehill clearly trusts in critical situations. Landry theoretically draws the best matchup vs rookie CB Bradley Roby, but Denver has apparently gotten sick of being vulnerable in the slot and has returned former slot man Chris Harris there on occasion. I see little reason for the Broncos to waste Chris Harris on Brian Hartline, so it would make sense for him to be on Landry lockdown duty. Landry is extremely risky with the threat of Harris in coverage.

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning

Be careful rostering Manning this week, as he is unlikely to have a full complement of weapons and will face the Dolphins tenacious pass-rush. The rush is largely responsible for the Dolphins allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG to QBs, consistently disrupting the passing game rhythm and QBs throw points. I don’t think Peyton will be as highly owned as he normally is given the potential missing weapons, and he certainly can rip up a defense with just Demaryius Thomas and a gang of ‘other guys’, but there’s a lot working against him here. Ultimately considering price, Manning is a back-end top-5 play but is clearly behind Rodgers and Luck in terms of top-tier options.

Broncos WRs
Injury Update: WR Emmanuel Sanders has cleared concussion protocol and is listed as Probable this week.

With Emmanuel Sanders at risk of missing this game, it’s shaping up to be the Demaryius Thomas Show this week. Thomas will draw sticky coverage from top Fins CB Brent Grimes, but is still in contention for the top overall WR play if his playmaking peers can’t play. We’ll likely see more of Wes Welker/Cody Latimer/Andre Caldwell if Sanders and/or Julius Thomas can’t go, but their uncertain opportunities limit each to tournament play only.

Broncos TEs

Injury Update: TE Julius Thomas is expected to be a Game-Time Decision this week.

Julius Thomas hasn’t been practicing this week and could sit this week. Jacob Tamme will be the Broncos starting TE if Thomas can’t go. The Dolphins are pretty stingy vs the TE and allow the 10th-fewest FPPG to the position – Thomas is still in play if he suits up, but Tamme is a risky salary relief option.

RB CJ Anderson

Anderson is basically the Last Man Standing right now in the Broncos backfield. Anderson was shut down on the ground last week (just 9-29) but finished with 115 total yards thanks to a whopping 8-86 through the air. Despite the guaranteed workload, Anderson draws a tough matchup against a Dolphins defense allowing just 84.5 rushing yards per game. He’s ideally used as a contrarian tournament play this week.

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