NFL Grind Down: Week 12 - Page Three

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-22 19:57:54

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers						Minnesota Vikings
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-9.5	48.5	29				9.5	48.5	19.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	33.0	1	3	16		Offense	18.1	28	32	10
Defense	18.1	28	32	10		Defense	33.0	1	3	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	8	24	17	5		Green Bay Packers	13	17	24	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Nelson	94	60	9	998		Patterson	58	28	1	332
Cobb	74	54	10	779		Jennings	61	36	2	463
Adams	39	27	3	286		Wright	42	26	0	315
Quarless	29	19	3	180		Rudolph	17	10	1	96

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total with Packers heavily favored
•Target Packers playmakers

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

The only thing that can stop Aaron Rodgers is a (seemingly inevitable) blowout. He is the top QB play each week until proven otherwise.

WR Jordy Nelson

Jordy Nelson in Week 10: 6-152-2

Jordy Nelson in Week 11: 4-109-1

Alshon Jeffery vs the Vikings in Week 11: 11-135-1

There’s no analysis needed here – Jordy is the top WR play this week.

WR Randall Cobb

Cobb was again unstoppable (like seemingly every Packer) last week, slicing the Bears defense for 10-129. This week Cobb draws the oft-exploited Captain Munnerlyn in coverage. While not the positional top-play like teammates Rodgers and Nelson, Cobb is still a top-8 play and strong addition to a Packers stack.

RB Eddie Lacy

What the hell is going on with Eddie Lacy lately?! He blasted the Eagles in the box score, with 114 total yards and 2 TDs. All this, despite just 10 carries for 69 yards. Lacy’s role in the passing game is seriously boosting his production, but it’s hard to call it a fluke considering how consistent he’s been the past few weeks. You have to think that the huge screen passes and dumpoffs will be contained eventually… right? Probably not this week, against a defense Lacy smacked for 132 total yards and 2 TDs earlier this season. The Vikings allow the 5th-most FPPG to RBs, and gave it up on the ground and through the air to Matt Forte last week. Lacy is awfully pricy but is a top-5 RB play this week.

WR Davante Adams

Davante Adams was again mostly the odd man out last week, though he did get a score. He remains a cheap way to get exposure to the Packers offense.

Minnesota Vikings

RB Jerick McKinnon

McKinnon was a massive let down last week with just 58 total yards, mainly due to the Vikings abandoning the run (Mckinnon received just 8 carries last week). The worry here is another blowout at the hands of Aaron Rodgers and Co. Despite a solid matchup, McKinnon is a risky play.

TE Kyle Rudolph

While Kyle Rudolph returned last week, he effectively split time with the other Vikings TEs and was a non-factor in the passing game. He’ll eventually be in play as a red-zone weapon, but is risky in DFS until we see him get the majority of the snaps again.

Vikings WRs

The Vikings WRs simply don’t deserve consideration on a weekly basis this season. Cordarelle Patterson has theoretical upside that never gets realized. Greg Jennings is hurt. The only Vikings WR I would target this week is Charles Johnson. Johnson was a garbage-time hero last week, hauling in 6-87. It’s clear the Vikings want to get a closer look at Johnson, and if this game goes the way most think it will, Johnson should be in line for extra work late in this game. And if any of the Vikings WRs are out, Johnson becomes even more intriguing as a near minimum-price tournament prayer.

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots

Detroit Lions						New England Patriots
Sun – 1:00 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	48	20.5				-7	48	27.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.8	26	20	27		Offense	32.3	2	5	13
Defense	32.3	2	5	13		Defense	18.8	26	20	27
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	15	23	2	27		Detroit Lions	1	10	4	13
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	64	34	3	520		Edelman	87	59	2	606
Tate	95	68	3	950		LaFell	67	39	5	576
Ross	23	17	1	204		Amendola	18	11	1	95
Pettigrew	14	9	0	68		Gronkowski	80	53	9	734

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total with NE favored by 7 despite facing elite Lions defense
•Tough matchups for Lions passing attack
•Gronk is a mythical creature

Detroit Lions

WR Calvin Johnson

Patrick Peterson: 1, Calvin Johnson: 0. Peterson and the Cards were able to neutralize the entire Lions passing attack last week, and it seemed like Lions QB Matt Stafford was actually a little afraid to throw to one of the best WRs on the planet. To be fair, Calvin created multiple big-play opportunities for himself but was let down by his QB. Calvin goes from one tough matchup to another this week vs the Pats. The Pats have been willing to lock up Revis on a team’s second option in the past, and just roll coverage the other way, so even a non-Revis situation could make for a difficult day for Megatron. But like last week, even in the face of a tough matchup, you still need exposure to Megatron in GPPs. He’s a top-5 play this week, but comes with sizeable risk.

WR Golden Tate

Like Megatron, Golden Tate was also shut down last week, turning his mind-boggling 2 targets into 41 yards. Tate is especially risky this week considering the Patriots elected to shadow Colts slot man Reggie Wayne last week. The risk of a similar assignment to Tate means we should avoid the ex-Seahawk in favor of WRs with better matchups this week.

QB Matt Stafford

I had a bad feeling about Stafford last week, and advised against him in last week’s #GrindDown. Sure enough, in the face of a tough matchup we AGAIN saw #BadStafford. It’s hard to expect anything different this week vs the Pats, who have the personnel and schemes to minimize the impact of Stafford’s two legit weapons. Stafford is a contrarian QB play this week who you should avoid in cash games.

Detroit RB City

The lone positive on offense for the Lions last week was Joique Bell rumbling for 115 total yards against a tough Cardinals front. He’ll need to be at his best again this week, as the Pats lone defensive vulnerability this season has been their run defense. Even after two straight solid weeks of run defense, the Pats are still allowing the 3rd-most FPPG and 110.6 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs. Bell has the matchup in his favor this week, but his workload is in question if the Pats establish an early lead. All things considered, Bell is just outside the top-20 RBs this week.

In other Lions RB news, it sounds like Reggie Bush may play this week. If he does, he’ll be a tournament consideration and will also squash the value of Theo Riddick (who was a disappointment in Week 11). If Bush is unable to go, Theo Riddick will again be the passing down back… but that has been an inconsistent play in DFS and likely isn’t worth the risk.

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

The Gronk Train rolled on last week with a somewhat DOWN game of just 4-71-1 against the Colts. My hope is that maybe, just maybe, that bumps a few people off the bandwagon, because it’s All Aboard the Gronk Train again this week. The Lions are average against the TE, and average isn’t good enough to contain Gronk – he’s the top TE this week.

QB Tom Brady

The Lions allow the FEWEST FPPG to opposing QBs; Tom Brady has been torching defenses at will. It will be a fascinating matchup to watch, but which side do we take in DFS? I don’t think the Lions defense matches up particularly well with the Pats, so I have no problem rostering Brady this week. However, considering Brady’s price, it’s likely best to either pay up for the top-tier QBs that also have favorable matchups, or drop down and save salary. Brady is a top-6 QB but is best used as a contrarian tournament option this week.

WR Julian Edelman

Edelman was a bit of a letdown with just 81 total yards against the Colts last week – but we need to remember that he simply wasn’t needed. This week he will be. The best way to attack the Lions defense in both real life and DFS is by targeting the slot, where the Lions have rotated multiple defenders with little success. Edelman’s TD upside is perpetually limited by his size, usage, and the presence of Gronk, but I think he’s a great bet for solid production this week. He’s a sneaky #2 WR this week.

RB Shane Vereen

Vereen tallied just 77 total yards last week thanks to the emergence of Jonas Gray (more on him in a bit). But against a defense allowing the 2nd-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs, Vereen’s role in this game should increase dramatically. Also consider that despite their success against the run, the Lions still allow the 6th-most receptions and 5th-most receiving yards per game to RBs. It’s always risky to ‘call’ a Vereen game – but this one certainly looks the part. Vereen is an upside #2 RB this week.

WR Brandon LaFell

LaFell had a modest 3-62 last week, and draws the difficult matchup vs the Lions outside CBs this week. While he has perpetual big-play upside and may see single coverage depending on how the Lions attack Gronk, LaFell is no more than a contrarian tournament option this week.

RB Jonas Gray

As a reminder: “The short story with Gray is that he’s a 5’10, 225 lb, undrafted rookie who has been installed as the Steven Ridley replacement in the Pats offense. And so far he looks like a good fit, with solid RB traits and feel, and power as well.”

It seems like every time I call someone a ‘YOLO tournament play’, they go berserk. And that’s exactly what Gray did last week with 199 yards and 4 TDs against the Colts. I was one of the only people to recommend Gray last week, but even I didn’t predict THAT crazy performance. The biggest takeaway from that game isn’t that Gray is now a plug and play RB (he’s not, yet), it’s that we MUST remember that the Pats fully reengineer their game plan each week, and the RB position will thus vacillate between Vereen and Gray depending on the matchup. The matchup this week suggests we should favor Vereen to Gray (as I mentioned above) given the Lions strength vs the run. Though we can never truly predict what Belichick is going to cook up each week, it makes the most sense to avoid Gray and let others chase last week’s points.

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles

Tennessee Titans						Philadelphia Eagles
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		11	48.5	18.75				-11	48.5	29.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	16.8	30	23	26		Offense	29.9	4	8	14
Defense	29.9	4	8	14		Defense	16.8	30	23	26
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	29	20	31	4		Tennessee Titans	9	26	12	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wright	68	43	4	473		Maclin	101	57	9	921
Washington	38	20	1	347		Cooper	62	36	1	376
Hunter	54	23	2	416		Matthews	69	44	6	558
Walker	63	38	4	512		Celek	34	20	0	217

Quick Grind

•Vegas thinks the Eagles will smash the Titans: target their playmakers and defense
•The Sanchez & Matthews love story continues
•Avoid the Titans

Tennessee Titans

The Titans “Passing Attack”

Last week’s take may be true for the Titans the rest of the season at this rate: “No one in the Titans passing game can be trusted. Their game plans are horrible, and so is the QB.”

Mettenberger picked up his play a little last week, but still consistently left chances on the field. Regardless of his recent play, every QB that plays the Eagles needs to be discussed. There’s a chance that the bump in volume Mettenberger will see, coupled with the Eagles generosity to QBs (3rd-most FPPG allowed), and spotty coverage from the Eagles outside CBs, will give the Titans QB enough of a boost to be a viable total-punt QB.

If Mettenberger has a solid day, it’ll likely be due to Justin Hunter FINALLY being productive. The duo has as good a matchup this week as they’ll see all season, with CBs Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher still smoldering from countless burnings this season. I would avoid Kendall Wright this week vs slot man Brandon Boykin, who has been an effective slot limiter outside of last week. TE Delanie Walker should return this week, but Eagles LB Mychal Kendricks is a big reason the Eagles allow the fewest FPPG to TEs this season. It’s basically Hunter or bust if you’re taking a Titans playmaker this week.

RB Bishop Sankey

Sankey’s bizarre usage continued last week, but he was at least able to tally 45 yards and a TD on his 12 touches vs the Steelers. Sankey is a very risky play in general and again this week vs the Eagles, as the matchup is ‘meh’ and the likelihood of an Eagles stomp is HIGH. I would look elsewhere for salary relief options.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Mark Sanchez

Sanchez garbage-timed his way to 346-2-2 last week vs the Packers, but draws a much easier matchup this week. The Titans defense is on a short week and now gets to face a break-neck pace and high-powered offense. Sanchez is a top-8 play overall and is a strong value if you don’t want to pay up at QB.

LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy faces a defense playing on a short week, that allows the most rushing yards per game and the 9th-most FPPG to RBs, and was just trampled for over 200 yards by Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell on Monday. If Shady can’t break out this week, I don’t know what to tell you. He’s a high-upside top-5 RB play this week.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Maclin got back to his solid production ways last week with 9-93-1 against a tough Packers pass defense. This week Maclin faces an easier path again a Titans defense that is perfectly average against WRs and is allowing the 16th-most FPPG to the position. As usual, the high target volume and usage in the Eagles offense makes Maclin basically matchup proof, but the emergence of Jordan Matthews gives the Eagles another viable threat and will keep Sanchez from force-feeding Maclin. If you’re paying up at WR this week, Maclin is a top-10 WR that is being completely overlooked.

WR Jordan Matthews

The NFLs newest power couple – Mark Sanchez & Jordan Matthews – was on display yet again last week as Matthews hauled in 5-107-1 vs the Packers. Matthews draws a tough slot assignment for the second straight week, but as I mentioned last week, the individual matchup becomes largely irrelevant since Eagles HC Chip Kelly will scheme Matthews into favorable scenarios. Matthews’ price has seen a sharp adjustment this week, but he remains a top-20 option.

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