NFL Grind Down: Week 12 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-23 02:22:07

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Chicago Bears
Sun – 1:00 PM						Soldier Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		5.5	46	20.25				-5.5	46	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.4	25	21	30		Offense	21.5	19	9	25
Defense	21.5	19	9	25		Defense	19.4	25	21	30
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Chicago Bears	31	12	16	32		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	22	30	16
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	94	43	2	561		Marshall	86	49	8	586
Evans	71	46	7	794		Jeffery	90	55	4	761
Murphy	38	21	2	242		Wilson	4	2	0	11
Seferian-Jenkins	34	19	2	205		Bennett	75	53	5	591

Quick Grind

•Two frequently-exploited defenses face explosive passing attacks
•Narrative Street Alert: Josh McCown REVENGE GAME
•Keep an eye on the weather

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Mike Evans

I don’t know if Mike Evans has been given an NFL nickname yet, but I’m just going to start calling him ‘The Rampage’ after the rookie phenom added another 7-209-2 to the 14-249-3 he had dropped in the previous two games. That brings Evans to 21 catches for 458 yards and 5 TDs… in the last 3 weeks alone. Evans has reached the point where his only limitation is the play of his QB. Thankfully Josh McCown has clearly gotten the memo and is feeding The Rampage whenever he can.

This week The Rampage heads to Chicago to face a Bears defense that recovered a little pride last week against the wimpy Vikings offense, but surely hasn’t forgotten the combined 669 passing yards and 11 passing TDs they allowed to Brady and Rodgers in Weeks 8 & 10. The Bears are shockingly middle-of-the-pack in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing WRs, thanks mainly to successful early season outings when they were healthier in the secondary. But they’ve still been burnt up by stud WRs, with no better example than the 260 yards and 4 TDs they’ve allowed to Jordy Nelson in 2 meetings this season. Evans is capable of tearing apart what’s left of the Bears secondary, and is a top-10 play this week.

WR Vincent Jackson

Jackson continues to play second fiddle to the Rampaging Mike Evans, and his price continues to plummet as a result. Jackson is cheaper than the likes of John Brown and Reuben Randle this week on FanDuel, and, like his rookie running-mate Evans, boasts similarly monstrous upside against the frequently abused Bears secondary. Jackson is a low-cost, high-ceiling tournament WR this week.

QB Josh McCown

Narrative Street Alert: Revenge Game!

Grab your coat, honey, because we’re taking a little stroll down Narrative Street this week as former Bears QB Josh McCown returns to Chicago to face the team that forever solidified him as the most talented McCown (and got him a nice contract in Tampa Bay, too). After heaving it to the Bears elite monstrous WRs last season, McCown brings a new set of Tall Terrors to Chicago this week; both Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson should have little trouble navigating a Bears defense that grades out as the 7th-worst coverage unit on PFF. That bodes well for McCown, who is a great bet to at least reach the 19.6 FPPG the Bears are already allowing to opposing QBs, with upside for more based both on his sneaky rushing potential and the big-play potential of his top two weapons. McCown is an ideal salary relief QB for tournaments this week.

RB Charles Sims

Sims seemingly took control of the Bucs backfield last week, but turned his 16 touches into just 44 total yards. Not much of a lead-role debut for Sims, but nonetheless his play continues to draw the praise of Bucs coaches. Sims doesn’t have a great matchup this week against a Bears defense allowing just 85.9 rushing yards per game and the 13th-fewest PPG to opposing RBs, but he offers a lot of salary relief at nearly minimum-price on FanDuel.

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte

After a modest Week 10, Matt Forte was business-as-usual again in Week 11, ripping off 117 yards on the ground and another 6-58 through the air. Save for the aforementioned Green Bay game in Week 11, Forte’s game logs have been simply and consistently ridiculous. Expect more of the same vs a Bucs squad allowing the 10th-most FPPG and 11th-most receptions per game to RBs. Forte is an elite play as usual this week.

WR Brandon Marshall

Marshall erupted for 7-90-2 last week vs the Vikings, his second straight strong performance. There’s not much more to say than ‘PLAY MARSHALL’ when he’s heating up and heavily involved in the offense like this. Bucs slot man Isaiah Frey has no chance this week. Marshall is a definite top-10 play this week and has multi-TD upside against a Bucs defense allowing both the most FPPG and most TDs per game to opposing WRs.

WR Alshon Jeffery

After a few modest weeks in a row, Jeffery blew up for a massive 11 catches, 135 yards and 1 TD performance vs the Vikings. Bucs outside corners Alterraun Verner and Johnthan Banks probably let out a collective ‘Oh, $^%&’ at the thought of trying to corral Jeffery after seeing film of last week’s 17-target, deep ball barrage. Like Frey vs Marshall in the slot, I see little chance that a banged up Verner and ineffective Banks can slow down Jeffery this week. And like Marshall, Jeffery is also a top-notch play this week, with a high-ceiling thanks to his big-play ability.

QB Jay Cutler

Although I suggested Cutler and Co as contrarian tournament plays last week, I also acknowledged that doing so also made me sound like a lunatic given Cutler’s repeated meltdowns of late. And even amid dicing up a clearly overmatched Vikings defense for 330 passing yards and 3 TDs, Cutler still managed to chuck two more obnoxious INTs. We’ve learned to live with the blemishes at this point. Cutler will try to continue his run of actually being an effective NFL QB this week against a Bucs defense that allows the 6th-most FPPG to QBs. The Bucs have been surprisingly effective against QBs lately though, despite most of their secondary being basically horrible. I do worry a little that the Bucs pass-rush will generate enough pressure to disrupt the Bears’ recently ineffective pass-blocking, but I’m probably just trying to protect myself from risking another Cutlerian meltdown. Cutler is a volatile but high-upside top-5 QB play this week.

TE Martellus Bennett

Every week I try to add another subtle jab at Bennett being a boring play. And, as usual, Bennett sleep-walked his way to just 4-29 last week, while his WR teammates were devastating the Vikings play after play. Perhaps THIS is the week Bennett contributes to the offense again, as the Bucs Tampa 2 (or ‘Tampa zero’ as britdevine and boggslite call it) has been a sieve to TEs, allowing the 5th-most receiving yards to the position. Bennett remains a top-5 TE play this week thanks to the favorable matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars						Indianapolis Colts
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		13.5	50.5	18.5				-13.5	50.5	32
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.8	31	30	21		Offense	31.0	3	2	20
Defense	31.0	3	2	20		Defense	15.8	31	30	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	20	28	9	29		Jacksonville Jaguars	21	27	20	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Shorts						Wayne	82	47	2	595
Hurns	56	30	5	475		Hilton	92	59	3	961
Lee	24	13	0	141		Nicks	47	23	3	227
Lewis	12	8	1	106		Allen	40	26	7	374

Quick Grind

•Highest Vegas total AND spread of the week – target the Colts
•Multiple Colts injuries have opened up fresh value plays
•Depth Chart Update: Colts RB Trent Richardson & Dan Herron to carry the load
•Depth Chart Update: Jags WR Allen Hurns starting over Marquise Lee

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB Denard Robinson

I’ve been pounding the Denard Robinson drum since he first showed what he could do with a starter’s carries. But the man known as Shoelace stumbled a bit against the Cowboys in Week 10, gutting out a bland 70 total yards that ended up looking a lot better thanks to Robinson’s 2 rushing TDs. Despite the modest showing in his last game, Robinson simply has to be in the top-15 RB conversation this week against a Colts defense that was just disintegrated for 199 yards and 4 TDs by Jonas Gray and the Patriots. Some may call Gray’s performance an outlier, but the Colts D has been bulldozed by RBs several other times as well (allowing 148 yards to Lev Bell in Week 8, and 141 yards and 2 TDs to Arian Foster in Week 6 spring to mind). Robinson is a sneaky-strong play this week, with substantial matchup upside if the Jags can keep the game even remotely close.

And Then There Were Two: the Jaguars WRs

With former #1 WR Allen Robinson lost for the year, the Jags receiver corps will undergo a bit of a shakeup this week. Cecil Shorts went for 5-119 and several big plays last week, and will likely reprise his 2013 role as a target-hogging high-floor play. He’ll see a usage bump just in time for a clash with a #GrindDown favorite target: Greg Toler. We’ve torched Toler when targeting him lately (Odell Beckham, anyone?), and while Shorts is no ODB, he should still have a solid day against Toler. Shorts is viable as a contrarian #3 WR this week.

While Shorts is the most likely to benefit from extra opportunities, he’ll stay in his RWR slot. Jags HC Gus Bradley has said that preseason star and habitual big-play threat Allen Hurns will replace Robinson at LWR. Unfortunately that means Hurns will tangle with lockdown CB Vontae Davis this week. Dont get cute: avoid Hurns.

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

Luck managed ONLY 303 yards and 2 TDs vs the Pats last week, which was shockingly his second-lowest yardage output of the season. Says a lot about just how much the King of Volume passes every week. Luck will look to get back to his obnoxious totals vs a Jags team he dropped 370 yards and 4 TDs on back in Week 3. I feel bad for the Jags, who have lost several key defenders since that meeting. Luck might casually go ballistic this week. He’s a no-brainer top-3 QB with upside to pace the position this week.

WR TY Hilton

The Patriots grounded the normally high-flying Hilton in Week 10, holding him to a season-low 3-24. While other teams may start to emulate the Pats strategy going forward, expect Hilton to bounce back this week against the depleted Jags. The Colts’ AFC South foe is allowing the 12th-most FPPG to WRs, and gave up 5 catches for 80 yards to Hilton himself back in their Week 3 meeting – and keep in mind the Jags have lost 2 of their top 3 CBs since. TY let a lot of people down last week, but he remains a top-10 WR option this week.

WR Reggie Wayne

The Pats defied most analysts last week as they used lockdown CB Darelle Revis on WAYNE, and not TY Hilton last week (who received rolled coverage instead). To the Pats credit – they disrupted the offense; to Wayne’s credit – he still managed 5-91. Wayne should be in line for another solid performance this week, as the Jags haven’t found an effective slot replacement since Will Blackmon was injured. He is a solid #3 WR who offers sneaky upside due to the matchup.

TE Coby Fleener

With Dwayne Allen injured, it seems Coby Fleener is in an ideal spot to soak up more snaps and run more routes than he has all season. The Allen injury sure paid off for him last week – Fleener was the one Colt to win consistently vs the Pats, whipping them for 7-144. While I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, Fleener’s athleticism does outclass the Jags TE coverage substantially. If you aren’t paying up for the studs this week, Fleener is a compelling alternative as a top-4 TE this week.

RB Trent Richardson / BOOM Herron

For one week at least, Trent Richardson may be able to shine like he did in his rookie season. The Colts have lost RB Ahmad Bradshaw for the season, and Richardson figures to handle as much work as he’s able to (or as much as the Colts allow). The Jags allow 106.9 rushing yards per game and the 7th-most FPPG to opposing RBs. I don’t think the Colts running game is effective enough to warrant refocusing the game plan around Richardson, but the volume he sees in both carries and targets should make him a solid value play against this vulnerable-of-late Jags front. Richardson is a viable salary relief #2 RB.

Behind Richardson, Dan “BOOM” Herron will man the #2 spot. The Colts coaches have expressed confidence in Herron, and he looked good playing a dual-threat Ahmad Bradshaw role in the preseason. We don’t exactly know what we’re getting in terms of workload here, but Boom is a complete punt option given the matchup, his access to TD opportunities, and the likelihood of extra work in a Colts blowout.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Cincinnati Bengals						Houston Texans
Sun – 1:00 PM						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	43.5	21.25				-1	43.5	22.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.4	16	26	5		Offense	22.9	15	27	6
Defense	22.9	15	27	6		Defense	22.4	16	26	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	16	19	32	7		Cincinnati Bengals	10	30	5	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	49	29	4	508		Johnson	92	55	1	631
Sanu	80	45	4	671		Hopkins	73	46	4	764
Tate	20	14	1	159		Posey
Gresham	51	38	2	289		Graham	21	14	1	156

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total and tight spread limits appeal
•Keep an eye on injury news – both starting RBs are in flux
•Injury Update: Texans RB Arian Foster is a Game-Time Decision
•Injury Update: Bengals RB Gio Bernard practicing in full on Thursday

Cincinnati Bengals

WR AJ Green

I implored Grinders to just throw out AJ Green’s down Week 10 and immediately give him the GREEN light again last week – and the Bengals star WR responded with a 6-127-1 schooling of the Saints in Week 11. It’s a reminder that the Bengals passing attack revolves around and depends on Green whenever he’s healthy. This week AJ gets a tough individual matchup in CB Jonathan Joseph, but his undeniable talent and role in the offense mean Green remains a top-5 WR this week.

WR Mohamed Sanu

I also advised Grinders throw out Sanu’s down Week 10 – and unfortunately that suggestion didn’t pay off. Green did all the eating in Week 11 and Sanu managed just 3 catches for 23 yards. With Green back there will be a lot more volatility with Sanu, but don’t overlook him completely. In matchups like this once, against a Texans team that has allowed the 4th-most FPPG to WRs, Sanu is a sneaky #3 WR option.

RB Jeremy Hill

With a positive game script on his side, Jeremy Hill beasted all over the Saints defense for 165 total yards in Week 11. This kid is just immensely talented, and it shows most when the Bengals are able to fully commit to a game plan with Hill at the center. Unfortunately, it appears that RB Gio Bernard will return from injury this week. There’s been a lot of discussion of the likely split in workload between the two young Bengals RBs; regardless of how it shakes out, Hill’s volume will take a hit, which limits his upside. The matchup is at least favorable: the Texans allow the 11th-most FPPG to opposing RBs. Ultimately Hill’s price is a little too high for a part-time back, but he remains a solid contrarian RB given his matchup and the chance that the Bengals give less work to Gio in his first week back.

RB Gio Bernard

Gio finally returns this week to complicate a Bengals backfield that was humming along nicely with the emergence of Jeremy Hill. Bernard is a risky play this week considering his uncertain workload and role, and the fact that his price remains in the top-tier of RBs.

Houston Texans

GTD: The Story of the 2014 Texans RBs

Texans RB Arian Foster teased us with another week of Game-Time Decision status last week and ultimately wasn’t able to go. In his place, though, Alfred Blue excelled (beyond what I think anyone anticipated). Blue battering the Browns for 156 yards on 36 carries. With Foster a GTD decision AGAIN and another weak run defense on deck, Week 12 feels eerily familiar to last week. So we’ll treat it the same way we did last week: Foster is a top-5 RB play if he’s able to go, and Blue will be a strong salary relief option if Foster is out.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Last week’s analysis applies to Hopkins most weeks: ”Hopkins has emerged as the preferred Texans WR to target in DFS most weeks thanks to both his big play usage and frequent matchups vs his opponent’s lesser CBs.”
It also rang true last week, as Hopkins dropped 4-80 on the Browns in his usual big-chunk fashion. I don’t worry too much about the Bengals stingy pass defense here, as Hopkins has delivered big-plays consistently all year and is the Texans go-to deep threat. With big-armed Ryan Mallett at the helm, Hopkins is a solid #2 WR with plenty of upside.

WR Andre Johnson

Andre posted a solid 7-68 last week, impressive considering he received shadow coverage from Joe Haden. And while the Bengals play tough pass defense, allowing just the 6th-fewest FPPG to WRs, it seems that new QB Ryan Mallett will fire at will regardless. While most will overlook Andre due to a largely underwhelming season so far, he is in play as a sneaky #3 WR with top-20 upside this week.

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