NFL Grind Down: Week 14

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-11 15:27:12

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers						Cincinnati Bengals
Sun – 1:00 PM						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	47	22				-3	47	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	26.7	8	4	21		Offense	21.7	17	28	4
Defense	21.7	17	28	4		Defense	26.7	8	4	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	6	28	2	18		Pittsburgh Steelers	23	14	17	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	33	17	6	344		Green	73	45	5	686
Brown	135	96	11	1258		Sanu	90	52	5	738
Wheaton	71	41	2	503		Tate	20	14	1	159
Miller	68	51	2	583		Gresham	62	47	2	355

Quick Grind

•Surprisingly high Vegas total
•Le’Veon Bell is the top RB of Week 14

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown

It really surprises me that people continue to discount Lord Brown on a weekly basis. Yes, the 2 TDs in in the 4th quarter propelled Brown back into the DFS WR stratosphere (where he’s taken up a permanent residence this season), but as Emac & Bryan Fontaine say every week on the Thursday NFL show: garbage-time points count the same as any other points. Lord Brown’s 8-97-2 (and a 2PC) last week was just more of the same for the most dominant ‘undersized’ WR in the NFL:

Yeah, he’s OK. We can talk all day about how the Bengals limit WRs to the 6th-fewest FPPG… but do you really want to fade this guy? Brown is sure to be underowned yet again this week but has as high of a ceiling as anyone in the NFL.

RB Le’Veon Bell

If I told you the Steelers were getting smacked for most of the game last week, and they were forced to throw, you might assume that Lev Bell had a down game. And you would be very, very wrong. The elusive, dual-threat Le’Veon Bell 2.0 was in full effect last week, with 21-95-1 on the ground and a ‘WTF’-inducing 8-159 through the air. This week the Bell Tolls in Cincinatti, where the Bengals are allowing the 8th-most FPPG and 111.1 rushing yards to RBs. They were able to somewhat contain the Bucs halfhearted rushing attack last week, but don’t anticipate similar success this week, especially with stud LB Vontaze Burfict still unlikely to return. Bell is a top-2 RB play this week.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben had one hell of a box score last week: 435 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs. He also basically gifted the Saints the win, and was the main reason there was even so much garbage-time production to begin with. While I don’t think he’ll submarine Antonio Brown or Lev Bell, I’m not high on Ben this week. The Bengals have played tough pass defense all season, and force as many INTs per game as TDs allowed: 1.3 for both, but that’s bottom-5 in TDs allowed and TOP-5 in INTs forced. Be careful using Ben this week.

TE Heath Miller

I’m kind of holding my nose here, but the Bengals allow the 6th-most FPPG and an average line of 6.3-79 to opposing TEs. Miller is volatile, but trusted by Big Ben, and is a viable punt TE based on his matchup.

WR Martavis Bryant / Markus Wheaton

It was fun while it lasted Mr Bryant. I’m fairly certain we’re back to seeing either a more even time-share between Bryant and Wheaton, or seeing Wheaton reclaim his #2 spot entirely. Turns out it doesn’t matter how much of a size/speed freak you are if you 1) continually drop passes, and 2) have no killer instinct to go get the ball when you’re targeted (Twitter analysts take note). His physical talent will always be striking, but Bryant isn’t the GPP-gem he once was now that his snaps and targets are being limited.

Cincinnati Bengals

WR AJ Green

With Andy ‘future clipboard holder’ Dalton at the helm of the Bengals offense, there will be weeks where AJ Green just doesn’t see enough quantity/quality targets to produce like a top-tier WR. This risk makes AJ’s price a little tough to swallow. HOWEVER… AJ should force his own Green light this week in the coverage of the venerable Ike Taylor. At this stage of his career, Taylor is kind of like that past-his-prime boxer who gets paid to just throw the match and take a pounding. He’s a punching bag. Case in point: last week, when Taylor gave up 4-103-2 in what looked like target practice for Drew Brees and the Saints. With 8+ targets basically guaranteed to fly AJ Green’s way, most of which are in the ‘coverage’ of Ike Taylor, AJ Green is a high-ceiling tournament play this week.

WR Mohamed Sanu

I will continue to preach about #2 WR Mo Sanu as a sneaky tournament play thanks to his already-forgotten beastly talent and versatility… but I can’t look very smart with Andy Dalton playing like he wants to be a career backup. Until the Red Rocket gets his act together, Sanu is a very risky tournament-only play.

RB Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard

There wasn’t much to like about the Bengals backfield (or entire offense, for that matter) last week. Jeremy Hill slightly outcarried Gio, but their production was pretty similar. I’m sticking to my guns again though, and giving Hill the nod over Gio in DFS land this week. The Steelers are basically middle-of-the-pack in DVP, PFF run defense, etc. – all that matters here is that it’s not a prohibitive matchup for the Bengals duo. Each is a viable lower midrange tournament play, but I prefer Hill on both talent and opportunity.

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns

Indianapolis Colts						Cleveland Browns
Sun – 1:00 PM						FirstEnergy Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	49.5	26.5				3.5	49.5	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.8	1	2	17		Offense	21.0	21	25	6
Defense	21.0	21	25	6		Defense	31.8	1	2	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	5	16	15	11		Indianapolis Colts	20	25	5	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wayne	96	54	2	636		Gordon	29	15	0	195
Hilton	102	68	5	1145		Austin	72	47	2	568
Nicks	48	24	3	243		Hawkins	90	52	2	718
Allen	40	26	7	374		Cameron	31	13	1	250

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total and two exploitable defenses = lots of fantasy goodness
•Wipe your tears: Johnny Football is NOT starting for the Browns this week

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

I called the Redskins a ‘recipe for DFS goodness’ for Luck last week, and he absolutely cooked their defense for 370 yards and 5 TDs. The Skins looked senile at times, with multiple blown coverages that led to chunk plays or long TDs. But now comes an interesting test – the Browns. Owners of PFF’s TOP team coverage grade, the Browns have limited opposing passers to the 8th-fewest FPPG and force the 4th-most INTs per game. The numbers are certainly impressive, but they also are pretty heavily weighted by the bevy of unimpressive passing attack that the Browns have faced over the second half of the season (i.e. Raiders, Jags, Bills, etc.); they seem geared to stifle these inefficient or flawed passing attack, not a high-powered, voluminous attack like the Colts are bringing to town. Luck should still see his absurd passing volume, but when you’re choosing between elite QBs this week, I think the matchup tips the scales towards those in more favorable situations.

WR TY Hilton

A year ago we wouldn’t consider a 5-62-1 performance a ‘down’ game for TY Hilton, but he’s simply flourished this season. So much so that he’s seeing defensive focus in the form of rolled coverages and occasional attempts to fully shut him down with multiple defenders. This week we’ll almost certainly see the Browns slap shutdown CB Joe Haden on the breakout WR. That makes Hilton quite the risk. Could he torch Haden like Antonio Brown always seems to do? Sure. But he could also be held to a miniscule line and torpedo your lineups as a result. There’s little reason to risk rostering Hilton this week when his peers offer more favorable matchups.

WR Reggie Wayne

Wayne turned in a 4-31 effort against the Redskins. The Redskins. He gets another slick matchup this week against the slot coverage of K’Waun Williams, who you’ve never heard of because he isn’t any good. Still, Wayne’s volatile targets and production make him a risky play.

WR Donte Moncrief

Donte Moncrief was kind enough to stop by the game last week and detonate the Redskins for 3-134-2 on just 4 targets. It’s clear to everyone with eyes that Moncrief should be starting and Hakeem Nicks should be sent on an involuntary space mission, but this is OC Pep Hamilton’s world; we’re all just living in it. Moncrief’s low snaps and low targets mean he’s one of many low-floor/high-ceiling plays this week.

TE Dwayne Allen / Coby Fleener

While the Coby Fleener Express may not come to a complete stop this week, the return of Dwayne Allen certainly makes rostering either Colts TE a more volatile proposition. With a tough matchup on deck for top weapon TY Hilton, either TE could be productive or go off… we just don’t know which one. Don’t forget how productive Dwayne Allen was earlier in the season – his salary is quite depressed on some sites compared to Fleener’s, and he was THE Colts TD-maker prior to his injury. Allen makes for a sneaky salary relief TE in his first week back.

RB BOOM Herron

So… Boom Herron had 10-96-1 vs the Redskins last week. He had 79 yards by halftime. Trent Richardson had TWELVE yards… total. Between the continued drain of T-Rich on this offense, and Donte Moncrief being a part-time player, the Colts offense is just baffling. If you’re taking a Colts RB, it’s Herron, period. He draws a favorable matchup and is a viable salary relief option if you need a RB in the lower midrange.

Cleveland Browns

WR Josh Gordon

: UPDATE: Vontae Davis is OUT this week. Upgrade Gordon

Josh Gordon’s value this week depends on the health of the Colts stud CB Vontae Davis. When Vontae doesn’t play, it’s like we enter a bizarre alternate reality where the Colts forget how to play football, Big Ben throws 6 TDs, and Colt McCoy looks like the Redskins QB of the Future. So needless to say, if Vontae is out, Josh Gordon inherits a massive ceiling and becomes an elite play.

RB Isaiah Crowell

First, remember what Crow brings to the table: “If you want to watch a young RB that just oozes with talent and potential – go check out some clips of Isaiah Crowell. He displays a unique blend of prescient vision and explosive, violent running; I love this kid”

Now, yes, he managed just 29 rushing yards on 17 rushes vs the Bills last week. But the Bills are awfully tough, and they pretty much made a mockery of the Browns offensive line. More importantly: did anyone else notice how Browns HC Mike Pettine SPECIFICALLY scolded #2 RB Terrance West for his fumble after the game? He basically blamed the loss on West… which means we’re probably not going to see much of the other rookie RB vs the Colts. If you’ll join me for a quick stroll down Narrative Street, I think we might be in for a serious dose of Crow this week. And against the defense responsible for Jonas Gray’s 201-yard, 4-TD steamrolling… Crow remains a strong salary relief play with an enticing ceiling. Keep an eye on his HEALTH though, as the rookie soon-to-be-phenom has been limited in practice so far.

TE Jordan Cameron

Cameron is a wild card this week, as he has been limited in practice this week, but could final return from his concussion. He’ll likely be a GTD again. I mention him here because even though we likely won’t know what his involvement will be, or even how he’ll coexist with Josh Gordon this year, Cameron could still be a sneaky play… especially considering his price. On Thursday’s NFL show, Bryan Fontaine (READ HIS ARTICLE) astutely pointed out that Cameron is minimum-priced on DK. Getting a TE, who was considered a top-5 play prior to his injuries, for minimum-price or near it, is a sneaky tournament play that won’t kill you even if Cameron is quiet in his first game back.

WR Andrew Hawkins

I don’t want to back off my stance that Andrew Hawkins can be a viable salary relief WR, but performances like last week’s 2-24 on 3 targets are going to happen in this offense… especially with the QB position in flux. But with Hoyer remaining at QB for the moment, and fellow WR Miles Austin now on IR, Hawkins should see more reliable target numbers going forward. Wait and see how the return of Jordan Cameron affects Hawkins though before you deploy him.

NFL Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2