NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Page Five

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-09 03:28:17

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle Seahawks						Philadelphia Eagles
Sun – 4:25 PM						Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	48.5	23.75				-1	48.5	24.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.8	11	24	1		Offense	31.3	4	10	9
Defense	31.3	4	10	9		Defense	24.8	11	24	1
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	28	21	29	7		Seattle Seahawks	1	10	1	16
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	70	48	2	519		Maclin	119	71	9	1088
Kearse	55	29	1	414		Cooper	75	43	1	457
Lockette	12	8	2	171		Matthews	82	54	7	686
Willson	30	16	1	190		Celek	43	26	0	272

Quick Grind

•Crucial game for the Seahawks – but can their offense take advantage?
•Be careful targeting the Eagles passing game

Seattle Seahawks

RB Marshawn Lynch

There’s not much to say about Marshawn at this point. He’s going to get 20+ touches, he’s going to be a great bet for 100+ total yards, and if the Hawks score, there’s a very good chance it’ll be Beast Mode’s doing. The Eagles have been quietly strong vs the run all season, which does limit Marshawn’s ceiling this week. I would rather pay all the way up to one of the top 2 RBs this week, but Marshawn should be a high-floor play as usual.

QB Russell Wilson

Russ is the topic of lots of discussion this week, as he’s the latest QB to get the Eagles Bump. Check out the Thursday NFL show for a full breakdown of Wilson. The gist is that Wilson’s rushing production give him consistent high floor, and with the pace bump he’ll see from playing the Eagles, Wilson is justifiable as a cash game play and high-ceiling tournament option.

Seahawks WRs

Both Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse should theoretically benefit from both the bump in pace and the matchup Philly’s unimpressive corners. The problem is their ridiculous inconsistency and general lack of effectiveness for most of the season. As I mentioned on the NFL show, I’m not a fan of Baldwin this week as he squares off with the Eagles top DB, slot man Brandon Boykin. Kearse, on the other hand, will test the burnable outside CBs that we target on a weekly basis. Kearse makes for an interesting salary relief tournament WR.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Mark Sanchez

I am both terrified and fascinated to see what Sanchez accomplishes against the Seahawks. You don’t need me to tell you how tough the Seahawks defense is on most QBs, but even with a few letdowns this season, they still allow just 228.6 passing yards per game and the 8th-fewest FPPG to QBs. Can Chip Kelly’s system find holes in the Hawks scheme? I wouldn’t touch Sanchez in cash games, but he’s certain to see a plummeting ownership percentage due to the Hawks matchup, making him a contrarian tournament option for the bold.

LeSean McCoy

There was a one week window where the Hawks looked pretty pedestrian in run defense (the Chiefs game) after they had just lost Brandon Mebane for the season… and then stud LB Bobby Wagner came back. Maybe Chip Kelly will see something I don’t, but I don’t know how or where the Eagles running game will find traction against this defense. I would avoid Shady in favor of other options this week.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Chip Kelly vs Richard Sherman. Will the Maestro cook up something special to account for the Hawks elite CB? Jeremy Maclin doesn’t normally move around a ton on offense, spending about ¾ of his snaps on the right side where Sherman roams. We’ve seen other teams ‘sacrifice’ their lesser WRs to Sherman and move their top weapons away from him, but I can’t say for sure the Eagles will do the same. Sherman has struggled with similarly skilled WRs in the past (Odell Beckham jumps to mind). Ultimately, Maclin is an extreme risk because we don’t know if his usage will change, and if it doesn’t, there’s a chance that Sherman shuts him down. But he’s also a contrarian option both because he could be moved away from Sherm, and because he could simply beat him outright.

WR Jordan Matthews

Arguably the top Eagles play this week is Mark Sanchez’s BFF Jordan Matthews. More teams should be attacking the Hawks in the slot (where J-Matt works), as it’s the one spot in their coverage where the personnel are weaker. Regardless, as I preach every week: Chip Kelly will scheme J-Matt into favorable matchups regardless of the personnel the Hawks have on the field. Matthews is the

San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders

San Francisco 49ers						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 4:25 PM						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-8	41	24.5				8	41	16.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.3	24	21	20		Offense	14.7	32	29	32
Defense	14.7	32	29	32		Defense	19.3	24	21	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	22	32	7	19		San Francisco 49ers	3	6	6	15
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Crabtree	86	51	4	577		Jones	90	60	4	578
Boldin	100	68	4	843		Holmes	69	35	4	502
Johnson	48	35	3	435		Moore	27	12	0	115
Davis	42	23	2	210		Rivera	69	41	3	355

Quick Grind

•Excellent matchup for the 49ers
•Avoid the Raiders

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

Who is a worse quarterback right now: RG3, or Colin Kaepernick?

Maybe the answer to that question is easy for you. But when I was asked earlier in the week, I actually had to think about it – and that says everything you need to know about how Kaep has been playing of late. The Seahawks game last week was just purely atrocious. And while Kaep isn’t getting any help in the playmaking or playcalling department, we also need to be a little results oriented here and looks and what he’s done (or HASN’T done). Case in point: modest games against weak pass defenses like the Redskins don’t inspire confidence that Kaep will suddenly light up the world against the Raiders. The real question here is if the Raiders have truly given up, as it looked at times vs the Rams last week. Kaep is a fine tournament play because of the monstrous upside that anyone playing the Raiders has, but his own struggles keep him from being a must-play.

WR Anquan Boldin / Michael Crabtree

Narrative Street Alert: REVERSE Revenge Game?

In the offseason, both of the 49ers starting CBs from last season – Terrell Brown and Carlos Rodgers – moved across the bay to join the Raiders (who at the time were assembling a super squad of past-their-prime defensive talents; needless to say, it didn’t work out). Both Brown and Rodgers have been disasters in Oakland, especially Rodgers, who was one of the top CBs to target all season prior to being put on IR last week. The point here is that 1) the Raiders have corners that suck, and 2) the 49ers KNOW the Raiders starting corner(s) really, really well. I expect Boldin and Crab to make T Brown look foolish this week. They should have little problem with the younger Raiders CBs as well. I prefer Boldin to Crab based on his weekly usage, but either 49ers WR is in play this week.

RB Frank Gore

The Old Man is the subject of a lot of discussion this week, and the play/fade decision with Frank will be a crucial one this week. Why is a fading RB on a dysfunctional offense causing so much chatter? Because he’s facing a team that has been the 2nd-most favorable matchup for RBs, and just gave up 47 touchdowns to Tre Mason last week. As I’ve said multiple times, I have a really hard time trusting both Frank and this offense, but there’s no denying the matchup and the likelihood of a run-favorable game script. Gore is cash game viable based on the aforementioned factors, but I’m not sure he can do enough for you in tournaments.

Oakland Raiders

DO NOT ROSTER ANY RAIDERS – THEY SUCK

Latavius Murray returns this week… but it’s hard to endorse him against the Niners, who allow the 5th-fewest FPPG to RBs, and amid reports that he’ll split work with the Raiders irrelevant acronym RBs (DMC, MJD). Look elsewhere.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers

New England Patriots						San Diego Chargers
Sun – 8:30 PM						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3.5	51	27.25				3.5	51	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.5	3	5	13		Offense	23.3	14	7	28
Defense	23.3	14	7	28		Defense	31.5	3	5	13
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	14	12	16	2		New England Patriots	17	20	3	24
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	112	77	2	743		Allen	110	72	4	762
LaFell	86	53	7	712		Floyd	61	39	4	689
Amendola	20	11	1	95		Royal	62	43	6	532
Gronkowski	102	65	9	910		Gates	67	47	9	574

Quick Grind

•High Vegas total and suspected shootout atmosphere
•Troubling defensive matchups on both sides

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

Man, Rob Gronkowski has been so bad lately: he’s only gone for 5-78 and 7-98 his last two games! That we can make such a statement, about a TIGHT END, lets you know just how dominant Gronk is. There’s been some chatter this week that the Chargers ‘shut down TEs’. Go look at the teams they’ve faced, and tell me that the Chargers DVP for TEs is even remotely relevant. Gronk is the top TE as usual.

QB Tom Brady

Brady struggled vs a tough Packers defense last week, but gets a more favorable matchup this week against the Chargers, who have allowed the 9th-most FPPG to QBs, and have exploitable personnel outside top CB Brandon Flowers and FS Eric Weddle. Brady is a top-5 QB this week.

WR Julian Edelman

I worry about Edelman this week. As I mentioned on the Thursday NFL show, on the 40% of snaps that Edelman will play on the outside, he’ll face Chargers lockdown CB Brandon Flowers. And on the snaps where he moves into the slot, Edelman will face… Brandon Flowers. It’s not a recipe for success. I would avoid Edelman in favor of other options.

WR Brandon LaFell

…While I worry about Jullian Edelman’s matchup, I LOVE Brandon LaFell’s potential on the opposite side. LaFell gets the luxury of a matchup with a #GrindDown favorite target, CB Shareece Wright. Wright grades out as PFF”s 5th-worst coverage corner and is routinely the path of least resistance for opposing passing attacks that know to avoid Brandon Flowers. LaFell is a sneaky high-upside WR given the matchup.

Patriots RBs, aka How to Raise Your Blood Pressure

Let’s try to keep this simple. It’s either Shane Vereen or LeGarrette Blount. Beyond allowing a few big runs to Justin Forsett last week, the Chargers have stiffened against the run lately. I tend to think the Patriots would rather attack this team through the air, which would suggest that Shane Vereen has a good chance to be used as a matchup hammer in this game. Even still, rostering Vereen comes with sizeable risk. It should go without saying, but don’t trust any Pats RB in cash games this week.

San Diego Chargers

QB Phillp Rivers

Rivers looked plenty healthy in his 383-yard 3 TD bombing of the Ravens secondary last week. But now he faces a defense that can actually stop some of his top receiving weapons. I don’t like the spot for Rivers, and don’t necessarily agree with how close Vegas suggests this game will be. Rivers should be forced to throw often here though, giving him some tournament appeal. I would just rather look to the elite players or target more favorable matchups.

TE Antonio Gates

The one player I’m not sure the Pats have a direct answer for is Antonio Gates. Gates had been somewhat quiet recently prior to his 7-83 vs the Ravens last week, but should be the one Chargers receiver who finds space against this defense. The Pats allow the 15th-most FPPG to TEs, and haven’t been directly scheming to neutralize them like they have opposing top WRs. I think Gates is a sneaky alternative to the stud TEs this week.

Chargers WRs

I tend to avoid WRs when they face Bill Belichick’s vaunted ‘Top Weapon Removal Service’. Yes, the Packers were able to find space last week despite the Patriots schemes, but the quality of the Chargers passing game is nowhere NEAR that of the Packers. I expect Keenan Allen to see game-long lockdown coverage. The question is what the Pats will do with Malcom Floyd and Ed Royal. I think Royal would actually pose more of a problem to the defense, but he’s also harder to neutralize because of how he’s used. The simple solution would be to use the larger Brandon Browner to man up on Floyd, and keep a safety overtop to eliminate his big-play skillset entirely. In that scenario, Eddie Royal is the Chargers WR most likely to find success.

RB Ryan Mathews

Mathews was the latest victim of the Ravens monsters-and-missiles filled defensive front last week, scraping together just 38 rushing yards on 13 totes. Mathews has a cake-level paper matchup this week against a Pats squad that allows the 3rd-most FPPG to RBs… but outside Eddie Lacy’s 98 rushing yard romp last week, the Pats have looked better in run defense of late. I see the appeal of Mathews based on the DVP ranking and Vegas’s opinion of this game, and he’s viable as a #2 RB. He just doesn’t interest me.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Atlanta Falcons						Green Bay Packers
Mon – 8:30 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		12	55.5	21.75				-12	55.5	33.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.3	12	8	22		Offense	31.7	2	3	16
Defense	31.7	2	3	16		Defense	24.3	12	8	22
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	12	15	22	17		Atlanta Falcons	13	31	25	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	130	82	5	1169		Nelson	112	70	10	1119
White	88	56	5	662		Cobb	90	65	10	922
Douglas	44	30	1	339		Adams	54	34	3	417
Toilolo	41	23	2	204		Quarless	34	23	3	247

Quick Grind

•Massive Vegas total with the Pack huge favorites – target the Packers playmakers
•Be careful targeting the Falcons

Atlanta Falcons

WR Julio Jones

The Falcons turned the world on its head last week when they COMPLETELY shredded the Cardinals top-tier defense on the ground and through the air. Shredded might even be an understatement based on the 10-189-1 gem that Julio slapped on the Cards ‘elite’ CB Patrick Peterson. Julio was forced into the Peterson matchup based on running mate Roddy White being out, but if White returns this week (didn’t practice Friday but expected to play), Julio will be back to his usual LWR spot. This could mean a tough matchup vs Packers stud CB Sam Shields, but Shields himself is in question this week as he works his way back from a concussion. If either Roddy White or Sam Shields is OUT this week, it’s All Systems Go for Julio.

WR Roddy White

Keep an eye on Roddy’s health. As I mentioned above, Falcons coaches expect he’ll be able to play, but his lack of practice concerns me. White often sticks to his ‘if I don’t practice on Friday, I’m not playing’ statement from last season… and he didn’t practice on Friday. I’m more interested in White’s health for it’s effect on Julio; he isn’t an attractive play even if he is able to go.

QB Matt Ryan

I really worry that last week’s success against the Cardinals is just Fool’s Gold for the Falcon’s offense. And this week seems like a horrible matchup for the Falcons offense, especially if Packers CB Sam Shields is able to play, and Falcons WR Roddy White isn’t able to. Ryan has some tournament appeal based on the Vegas line and likelihood that he’ll see heavy passing volume, but I’m staying away.

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is back to no-brainer top-play status this week against one of the NFL’s least talented defenses. Target him with the utmost confidence.

WR Jordy Nelson

Jordy is an elite top-10 option as always this week, but he does figure to be shadowed by emerging stud CB Desmond Trufant. Say what you will about how bad the Falcons are (I often do), but Trufant is a stud. Nelson is matchup-proof via both his own talent and his QB’s ability to neutralize what the opposing coverage is trying to do, but I will be looking elsewhere for stud WRs this week.

WR Randall Cobb

THIS is the Packers WR you want this week. While Antonio Brown is the poster boy for elite WRs that don’t need prototype size to be uncoverable, Cobb isn’t far behind. The connection between Rodgers and Cobb is just unfair. The Falcons are completely devoid of talent outside CB Desmond Trufant, so Cobb should have free reign to completely dice the rest of the defense. He’s a top-5 option on full-PPR sites.

RB Eddie Lacy

Fattie Lacy is in a win-win situation this week. Either the Packers lean on him to smash open a Falcons defense that already allows the MOST FPPG to opposing RBs… or the Packers lean on him to ice the game when it’s out of hand. Either way, the Falcons defense is going to wake up very sore on Tuesday morning. Lacy is a top-5 RB play.

WR Davante Adams

From my RotoWorld WR/TE breakdown:

”Adams was the one Packers WR the Patriots didn’t game plan to shut down last week. Naturally, he was the Packers WR that burned them the most, constantly bombing the defense for chunks of yardage en route to 6 catches and 121 yards. While Adams could easily fall back into irrelevance this week, I think he’s a sneaky way to get cheap exposure to what should be one of the top scoring offenses of the week. Top Falcons DB Desmond Trufant should be tied up with Jordy Nelson for most of this game, leaving Adams and Randall Cobb to do the heavy lifting in the passing game. There’s no reason Adams shouldn’t be able to regularly whip either CB Rob Alford (if he returns from injury this week) or Rob McClain (who just sucks). If Aaron Rodgers sees it the same way and finds Adams with a matchup he feels he can exploit, then rostering the rookie WR could pay massive dividends at a very low cost.”

Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.

Good luck this week!