NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-07 13:03:08

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Detroit Lions
Sun – 1:00 PM						Ford Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		10	41.5	15.75				-10	41.5	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.3	28	22	29		Offense	19.3	24	16	26
Defense	19.3	24	16	26		Defense	18.3	28	22	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	4	8	4	23		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15	22	28	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	107	50	2	702		Johnson	91	49	5	724
Evans	91	53	8	890		Tate	115	80	3	1136
Murphy	51	28	2	362		Ross	29	21	1	270
Seferian-Jenkins	38	21	2	221		Pettigrew	15	10	0	70

Quick Grind

•Lions favored by 10, with a low Vegas total – this one could get ugly for the Bucs
•Lions Defense is a top option
•Bucs WRs draw tough matchups on the outside

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WR Mike Evans & WR Vincent Jackson

The Twin Terrors of Tampa (is that a thing yet?) draw an intriguing matchup vs a stout duo of outside CBs this week. I prefer Mike Evans because he’ll line up at literally every WR position, which should mean at least a few routes run against the Lions nonexistent slot coverage. Unfortunately Evans price is pretty massive across the industry. It’s too much to ask in cash games, but with everyone on other options instead, Evans makes an intriguing tournament play.

Detroit Lions

WR Calvin Johnson

If you weren’t able to catch the Lions/Bears game on Thanksgiving, don’t worry. I’ve prepared a condensed version that should be pretty easy to digest:

BEARS: Halt, Calvin Johnson! You’ll never beat the coverage of our rookie CB, Kyle Fuller!

CALVIN JOHNSON: LOL

11 catches, 146 yards, and 2 TDs later…

Pretty accurate, right? This week Calvin’s karma continues with a matchup against the defense allowing the MOST FPPG to opposing WRs. You know what to do.

QB Matt Stafford

Hey Grinders, might I interest you in a QB that just diced the Bears for 390 yards and 2 TDs, and now faces a Bucs defense that allows the 2nd-most passing yards per game (293.4), the 2nd-most passing TDs per game (2.3), and grades out as a bottom-11 coverage unit on PFF? If so, give Matt Stafford a look as a high-upside, top-6 QB option this week. If you aren’t paying up for an elite QB, pivoting to Stafford will give you a few thousand extra in salary on most sites, while still providing matchup upside.

WR Golden Tate

I would be remiss to ignore how effective Golden Tate has been, even with Calvin healthy again. You might think that Tate took a backseat to Megatron during his explosion last week, but the former Seahawk was every bit as effective as usual, with 8-89 on 10 targets. Yes, it was the Bears. But this week, it’s the Bucs – who give up the MOST FPPG to opposing WRs. They have particularly struggled in slot coverage, which Tate should be able to easily exploit. Tate is a top-20ish WR ideally suited to full-PPR sites.

Detroit RB City

Shame on me for not being higher on Joique Bell last week. I got so caught up in how easily I thought the passing attack would dominate that I overlooked that the Lions would need someone to put the game on ice. The favorable game script led to 25 Joique Bell touches, which he rung up for 107 total yards and 2 TDs. It’s hard not to get stuck on Joique’s name when scrolling for possible value RBs this week, especially considering the matchup with the Bucs. Joique should have little difficulty cracking open a defense that already allows the 10th-most FPPG and 104 rushing yards per game to RBs. With another stomp likely, we could be in for another 20+ touch game from Joique, which all but guarantees he’ll pay off what is a very modest price around the industry. Consider Bell an ideal salary relief #2 RB this week.

In the passing down role, Reggie Bush should return this week. That probably short-circuits any value Theo Riddick had, and installs Reggie Bush as a tournament play on full-PPR sites.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00 PM						EverBank Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5.5	42	23.75				5.5	42	18.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.9	13	19	10		Offense	15.5	31	30	23
Defense	15.5	31	30	23		Defense	23.9	13	19	10
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	16	29	19	20		Houston Texans	11	18	31	4
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Johnson	115	65	2	720		Shorts
Hopkins	91	60	6	1041		Hurns	68	35	5	530
Posey						Lee	37	22	1	268
Graham	28	18	1	197		Lewis	18	11	1	109

Quick Grind

•Low Vegas total with the Jags an underdog for the 47th time this season: target the Texans defense
•Avoid the Jaguars

Houston Texans

QB Ryan Fitzmagic

The Amish Rifle tops the Texans list this week because we have an important DFS lesson to learn. Gather round. Last week I recommended punting to Fitzmagic solely based on the infinite sharpness of Adam Levitan (RW writer, RG Expert Roundtable analyst, hater of all forms of chasing). Well, Fitz detonated the Titans for 6 TDs, and Adam looks reaaaaaal smart because of it. So naturally the Fitzmagic Whisperer is calling for everyone to continue the punt-QB charge for a second straight week, right? If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? WRONG. You’re gonna want to go HERE to read Adam’s breakdown of why we’re immediately jumping off the Beard Train, because if you’re new, you’ll learn a lot about how to benefit from situations that leave most players perpetually one week behind.

GTD: The Story of the 2014 Texans RBs

At this point I’m leaving the ‘Texans RB’ heading as is, because I know as soon as I change it and start writing flowery descriptions of how Arian Foster runs, he’ll tweak his groin or hammy again and we’ll be back to square one. But as it stands now, Foster managed a limited Thursday practice, and based on his comments it seems like he’s on track to play without limitation this week.

Foster’s ownership should take a hit this week, especially on half-PPR sites, after the Zen Master was held to just 79 yards on the ground and 5-26-1 through the air. It seems whenever RBs like Demarco Murray or Le’Veon Bell have monstrous days, that becomes the expectation of all elite RBs; whoever doesn’t meet that expectation sees a dip in their ownership the following week. Don’t be the person that overlooks Foster this week. He’ll benefit from a matchup with the Jags, who grade out as the 7th-worst run-defense squad and allow the 7th-most FPPG to RBs. I worry quite a bit about the Texans offensive line holding up against a massively underrated Jags pass rush that has tormented Andrew Luck and Eli Manning into subpar performances in recent weeks. And how do you counteract such annoyance? Run the ball. With Arian Foster. Who is averaging almost 130 total yards per game and the highest YPC of his career. Foster is a top-2 RB play this week.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

The #GrindDown Matchup Hammer DeAndre Hopkins absolutely slammed poor, poor Blidi Wreh-Wilson for 5-163-1 of his preposterous 9-238-2 last week. Hopkins is certainly one of the most improved WRs of 2014, and has become such a weekly big-play terror that I’m surprised he isn’t seeing more defensive focus, or even general awareness of where he is at all times. It’s certainly coming after last week’s outburst. But for now, Hopkins turns his sights to the Jags, who allow the 12th-most FPPG to WRs and grade out as a bottom-5 team in pass coverage on PFF. It’s a favorable matchup from a passing standpoint, but I worry about two things. 1) How effective will Ryan Fitzmagic be in the face of the Jags pass-rush? It certainly disrupted both Andrew Luck and Eli Manning of late. 2) Is Jags CB Demetrius McCray a legit threat to opposing WRs? Since being designated as a starter on PFF in Week 5, the 6’ 185 lb McCray hasn’t allowed more than 32 yards in a game. Am I grasping at straws here? Probably. But if Hopkins cranks out his usual chunk plays again this week, I would bet that they weren’t in the coverage of the Jags most effective healthy cover man.

WR Andre Johnson

Even with 7-53-1 on 11 targets last week, Andre’s upside seems sapped. He seems more likely to tally a 7-catch, 60-yard performance than to rip off the big lines we’re used to seeing. Johnson will have an excellent chance for at least one day of redemption this week vs the Jags “#1” CB Dwayne Gratz, who Jags beat writers are already suggesting should be confined to the slot given how poor he’s been on the outside. Andre is viable as your #3 WR based on the quality of his matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB Denard Robinson

The Jags won! Surely it was thanks to their new feature back, right? Unfortunately, Denard Robinson seemed to never have a chance last week, even against the previously sieve-like Giants defense. The Giants basically stoned the Jags offensive line time after time, and D-Rob was held to just 54 total yards on 14 carries. The Jags are grading out as a bottom-10 run-blocking squad on PFF, and haven’t been consistent enough to punch holes in even the vulnerable defensive fronts they’ve faced lately. The Texans offer another favorable matchup across the board: they allow 107+ rushing yards per game, the 11th-most FPPG to RBs, and grade out as the 6th-worst run-defense squad on PFF. The Jags bad run-blocking couldn’t overcome the Giants bad run-defense last week – will it be any different this week? Even though I love Robinson’s talent and how he’s developing as a runner, it’s just really tough to trust a guy who’s averaging 43 rushing yards and just over 16 touches per game in his last 3 tilts. Use Robinson as a contrarian tournament-play only this week.

Jaguars WR Roulette

We’ll just keep one of last week’s comments around until the Jags get it together: “Listen, Blake Bortles sucks right now.”
There should be a theoretical opportunity for a Jaguars WR to be a valuable DFS commodity with how often they trail in games, but unfortunately for us, the WR trio the Jags are using seem to just alternate solid games. Marqise Lee was the productive one last week, with an impressive 6-75-1 on 8 targets. Good luck guessing which Jags WR it will be next week, but here’s all the helpful info I can think to provide:

Of the trio, Cecil is the best bet for reliable targets and production, Hurns is a weekly risk but is most prone to blowup games (as we’ve seen earlier this season). I have a hunch that Lee might work his way into being the weekly featured WR out of the slot, and certainly should be able to win matchups against most slot corners. I probably wouldn’t roster any of these guys unless forced into by salary.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens						Miami Dolphins
Sun – 1:00 PM						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	45	21				-3	45	24
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.3	6	13	3		Offense	25.1	10	15	11
Defense	25.1	10	15	11		Defense	27.3	6	13	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	2	17	11	1		Baltimore Ravens	29	1	32	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Smith	70	38	8	609		Wallace	98	54	7	661
Smith						Landry	77	57	5	518
Brown	17	14	0	132		Hartline	50	32	1	369
Daniels	57	39	3	385		Clay	58	39	2	346

Quick Grind

•Attack the Ravens secondary
•Avoid the Ravens run defense
•Could be another Torrey Smith week

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

Forsett hit enough explosive runs to propel himself to another 100+ yard performance last week. The surprising Ravens RB now faces a Dolphins defense that has been absolutely trampled by the run in recent weeks. They still rank above average in most seasonal run defense metrics, so I think most people will see the so-so matchup and Forsett’s name and move to other options instead. For that reason I think Forsett makes a strong #2 RB in tournaments this week.

Too Many Smiths

The Two Smiths showed all the upside AND all the downside I mentioned here last week: Steve Smith did basically nothing (1-2), whereas Torrey ravaged the Chargers’ non-Brandon Flowers CBs for 6-65-2. We’re going to continue avoiding Steve Smith until he shows some signs of life again. On the other hand, we’ve been using Torrey as a #MatchupHammer seemingly every week, and the string of poor #2 CBs continues this week as well. Regular Fins #2 CB Cortland Finnegan is doubtful and not expected to play. If you watched the MNF game between the Dolphins and the Jets last week, you probably heard his replacements name 100 times as Jon Gruden BEGGED the Jets to test street free agent RJ Stanford with Eric Decker. But the Jets didn’t, so Stanford’s Dolphins starting debut went a lot smoother than it should have. Don’t expect the same treatment from the Ravens. I think Torrey should slice the Dolphins new starter – he’s an upside tournament play as usual.

Miami Dolphins

WR Mike Wallace & Jarvis Landry

You won’t often see people talking about attacking the Ravens defense, but the truth is that they’ve crumbled to near-Jets level ineptitude in the secondary thanks to injuries. And as Keenan Allen (11-121-2), Eddie Royal (9-81-1), and the Chargers pointed out last week – the Ravens pass defense can now be easily exploited. Enter Mike Wallace and Jarvis Landry. After the Dolphins struggled through the air last week, neither WR will be very highly owned, but the matchup is gold for both. Wallace was just a fingertip away from a TD AGAIN last week (this happens often), but still finished 6-69 on a healthy 11 targets. This week he faces an ‘Anthony Levine” and a “Danny Gorer’ on the outside. Heard of them? No, you probably haven’t – because they suck. There is no way Levine or Gorer can keep pace with Wallace this week. Basically the only thing keeping him from going berserk is the threat of the Ravens ruthless pass-rush, which grades out as the NFL’s best pass-rush on PFF. It’s a tangible worry, but the upside is hard to ignore here. One of these weeks Tannehill and Wallace are going to hook up for one of these long-bomb TDs… and this week is as good as any for those dreams to come true. Wallace is a high-upside tournament play this week.

I don’t know what was in the water at LSU the last few seasons but I like Jarvis Landry as a player almost as much I like ODB. Landry just loves the game, and he has already become Ryan Tannehill’s GO-TO WR when under pressure, or when he needs a 3rd-down conversion, and even in the red-zone. Depending on the formation Landry will likely draw the Ravens top remaining CB, Lardarius Webb, or the horrific coverage of last year’s 1st-rounder, safety Matt Elam. Either way, Landry’s usage gives him a high floor and constant opportunities to turn small gains into chunks of yardage. And against this flopping pass defense, he could be in line for a very strong outing.

RB Lamar Miller

Every week I preach how we MUST NOT PLAY RBs AGAINST THE RAVENS. But now that monstrous DE Haloti Ngata was popped for Adderall and is suspended through the rest of the season, there will be some shuffling in the Ravens elite run-stopping front. Will Ngata’s loss cause the Ravens run D to crumble? Probably not. But it will almost certainly provide Lamar Miller more room to run. I still wouldn’t take him in cash games, but after he managed a serviceable 67 total yards and a TD against the similarly elite Jets, I don’t mind Miller as a contrarian tournament RB that most will overlook.

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