NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Five
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
| Denver Broncos | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05 PM | Qualcomm Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | 50.5 | 27.25 | 4 | 50.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.6 | 5 | 3 | 12 | Offense | 22.5 | 14 | 8 | 28 | |
| Defense | 22.5 | 14 | 8 | 28 | Defense | 29.6 | 5 | 3 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego Chargers | 19 | 14 | 16 | 7 | Denver Broncos | 26 | 6 | 15 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 142 | 90 | 10 | 1266 | Allen | 113 | 74 | 4 | 765 | |
| Sanders | 122 | 86 | 7 | 1208 | Floyd | 67 | 42 | 5 | 743 | |
| Welker | 55 | 41 | 2 | 376 | Royal | 67 | 45 | 6 | 562 | |
| Thomas | 54 | 40 | 12 | 426 | Gates | 75 | 52 | 9 | 608 | |
Denver Broncos
QB Peyton Manning
Peyton isn’t getting much buzz this week as his production has underwhelmed of that, and there’s plenty of midrange and value qbs this week. But Manning shouldn’t be overlooked, as the Chargers simply don’t have the coverage personnel OR pass rush to impact him the way teams like the Bill have. I’d rather have Andrew Luck, but if you’re paying up for QB Peyton is a high ceiling play that will be largely ignored this week.
Broncos WRs
Demaryius Thomas will likely tangle with Chargers CB Shareece Wright the most this week. Wright is PFF’s 6th-WORST coverage CB. This one is a no-brainer.
Emmanuel Sanders is more likely to see the coverage of Brandon Flowers, who grades out as PFF’s 10th-BEST coverage CB. If forced to choose Broncos WRs the matchups suggest Thomas is a no-brainer.
RB CJ Anderson
Anderson is a fine play this week, and I love his talent. But with some excellent top-tier RBs and enough value to support them, it’s probably best to pay up for the studs at RB instead.
TE Julius Thomas
Thomas could be a wild-card at TE this week. He’s expected to be more involved this week against a Chargers team that just allowed 8-87-1 to Rob Gronkowski.
San Diego Chargers
QB Philip Rivers
Rivers stumbled against the Pats last week and now faces an elite Broncos secondary. Even though he’s had success against the Broncos historically, theres just no need to roll out Rivers this week.
TE Antonio Gates
Gates is the most intriguing Chargers play this week. The Broncos allow the 7th-most FPPG to TEs and Gates dropped 2 TDs on them earlier in the season. If you aren’t paying up at TE, Gates is a fine alternative.
Chargers WRs
I tend to avoid WRs facing the Broncos, who sport 2 lockdown CBs in Chris Harris and Aqib Talib. If you’re taking one, Keenan Allen should see the most targets and had success against the Broncos earlier in the season. But in general I would look elsewhere.
RB Donald Brown
With Ryan Mathews ‘highly doubtful’ to play, Don Brown becomes an interesting value play on workload alone. The Broncos allow a league-low 52 rushing yards per game to RBs though. If you need salary relief from the RB spot, Brown is an option, but I would prefer to pay up instead.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
| San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25 PM | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | -10 | 38 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.8 | 25 | 23 | 23 | Offense | 24.8 | 11 | 21 | 1 | |
| Defense | 24.8 | 11 | 21 | 1 | Defense | 18.8 | 25 | 23 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1 | 7 | 1 | 18 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 10 | 3 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Crabtree | 100 | 60 | 4 | 633 | Baldwin | 77 | 53 | 3 | 616 | |
| Boldin | 109 | 72 | 4 | 897 | Kearse | 62 | 32 | 1 | 451 | |
| Johnson | 50 | 35 | 3 | 435 | Lockette | 13 | 9 | 2 | 190 | |
| Davis | 46 | 25 | 2 | 236 | Willson | 32 | 17 | 1 | 191 | |
San Francisco 49ers
Note: this is a REALLY bad spot for the 49ers. If possible, just avoid them all
QB Colin Kaepernick
Let’s keep this simple. Kaep was just 18/33 for 174 yards, 1 TD, and TWO INTS last week… against the Raiders. It was almost as bad as the previous week when he threw for 121-0-2 against these same Seahawks. And now he travels TO Seattle, where he and the 49ers offense as a whole have struggled in recent years. Could the 49ers suddenly rally around their already-out-the-door head coach and pull off a shocker in Seattle? The theoretical chances are slim. There is no more contrarian QB this week than Kaepernick, but don’t get cute.
WR Anquan Boldin / Michael Crabtree
There’s a lot of history between the 49ers WRs and the Hawks DBs –especially WR Mike Crabtree and CB Richard Sherman – but that certainly hasn’t led to any 49ers passing game success when these teams meet. Now set to play in their own personal hell known as Seattle, the 49ers WRs should be avoided vs the Legion of Boom.
RB Frank Gore
Squeaky Wheel Alert! RADTHAD NARRATIVE STREET INDEX: 6
Gore was held to just 28 yards on 10 rushes in these teams Week 13 meeting. It’s sad that we need to seriously wonder how much he’ll be able to best that mark by this week in Seattle. There is a little Narrative Street bump in order here, with Frank AGAIN complaining to the media about his role. Maybe lame-duck Harbaugh will finally see that dialing up 30+ Kaepernick passes every week ISNT the way this team will find success. Nonetheless, even with
Seattle Seahawks
RB Marshawn Lynch
Beast Mode has been relative quiet in the TD department the past few weeks which has limited the number of Skittles jokes in the #GrindDown. Lynch is simply a different player at home though, and he’s been one of the few RBs to find success against the 49ers (5th-fewest FPPG to RBs) this season, with 20-104 against them in Week 13. Expect a merciless Lynch-based attack from the Hawks this week, making him a high-floor RB even in the face of a tough matchup.
QB Russell Wilson
Russ has a bipolar history against these 49ers: in 2013 he was held to 141 passing yards and just 1 TD, but in 2012 he blasted them for 4 aerial scores. I anticipate more success for Marshawn Lynch than the Hawks passing attack, but there’s no denying the level that Russ is playing at right now, and the extra freedom he has in the offense this time around. He’s an upside tournament QB that most people will shy away from due to the name value of the 49ers defense.
Seahawks WRs
The only viable guy here right now is Doug Baldwin, and even that is debatable. However, since we’ve been getting historic with the 49ers/Hawks matchup so far, it’s worth noting the last two times that Baldwin has played these 49ers at home:
2013 – 1-51
2012 – 6-53-2
The 49ers are allowing the 15th-most FPPG to opposing WRs but have been strong in pass defense for most of the season. But if you want to roll the dice on a Hawks WR, Baldwin has the best chance for success.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
| Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Sun – 8:30 PM | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 55 | 26 | -3 | 55 | 29 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.4 | 8 | 9 | 4 | Offense | 29.9 | 4 | 11 | 10 | |
| Defense | 29.9 | 4 | 11 | 10 | Defense | 26.4 | 8 | 9 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 30 | 21 | 29 | 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 20 | 18 | 7 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bryant | 118 | 73 | 10 | 1034 | Maclin | 125 | 74 | 10 | 1109 | |
| Williams | 54 | 30 | 6 | 482 | Cooper | 80 | 46 | 1 | 470 | |
| Beasley | 33 | 25 | 3 | 292 | Matthews | 87 | 56 | 7 | 709 | |
| Witten | 68 | 46 | 4 | 495 | Celek | 44 | 26 | 0 | 272 | |
Dallas Cowboys
RB DeMarco Murray
DeMarco is best used as a ‘contrarian’ pivot from Le’Veon Bell this week. It’s crazy to think, but Murray likely won’t be owned as highly as he should be given the other options at RB. Philly is neutral in terms of DVP (16th-most FPPG to RBs) but they do grade out as the 8th-best run-defense squad on PFF. While his matchup isn’t elite, Murray’s talent and workload are. He’s a top-tier RB play.
WR Dez Bryant
Dez could be in for a massive game this week. Yes, he underwhelmed against these Eagles just a few weeks ago, but these are the same horrible outside CBs that have been torched repeatedly. Consider Dez a savvy play given his bounceback potential.
QB Tony Romo
Romo is a sneaky tournament play against the Eagles, who allow the 3rd-most FPPG to QBs and consistently allow strong
performances.
Philadelphia Eagles
QB Mark Sanchez
Sanchez is theoretically in play this week, but the Cowboys have surprisingly limited opposing QBs to the 10th-fewest FPPG. You can do better at QB.
LeSean McCoy
Not many people are talking about Shady this week but he DID trounce this same Cowboys squad for 159 yards and 1 TD on Thanksgiving. Expect a similar 20-touch workload and strong performance from McCoy this time around.
WR Jeremy Maclin
Maclin struggled vs the Eagles last week but was another player that had success against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving (8-108). He should be heavily targeted again this time and is a solid bounceback candidate.
WR Jordan Matthews
Matthews went for 4-51-1 against the Cowboys in Week 13, but does draw the toughest matchup in Orlando Scandrick. I would much rather target Jeremy Maclin if taking an Eagles WR.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
| New Orleans Saints | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Mon – 8:30 PM | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | Offense | 21.6 | 18 | 10 | 25 | |
| Defense | 21.6 | 18 | 10 | 25 | Defense | 25.6 | 9 | 6 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 31 | 17 | 24 | 31 | New Orleans Saints | 29 | 30 | 26 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Colston | 74 | 46 | 3 | 706 | Jeffery | 116 | 73 | 8 | 949 | |
| Stills | 61 | 47 | 3 | 714 | Wilson | 14 | 5 | 0 | 40 | |
| Meachem | 17 | 5 | 0 | 85 | Morgan | 14 | 7 | 1 | 55 | |
| Graham | 99 | 68 | 9 | 695 | Bennett | 108 | 77 | 6 | 821 | |
New Orleans Saints
QB Drew Brees
Brees is my top QB this week and has monstrous bounceback potential against the nonexistent Bears secondary. The Bears allow the 4th-most FPPG to opposing QBs, grade out as the 4th-worst coverage squad, and are just bad in general. There’s no need for extra analysis here – play Drew Brees.
TE Jim Graham
I talked about Jimmy Graham in my weekly WR/TE GrindDown on Rotoworld:
”Don’t give up on him just yet! Yes, Graham has burned plenty of people – myself included – the past two weeks. But there’s multiple factors that suggest he’s still a strong play this week. First, consider how many people will be OFF Graham thanks to his disappointing recent stretch. Second, think about the game script. The Saints/Bears game has a massive 54 point Over/Under, one of the highest of Week 15, and it’s tight 3-point spread suggests a possible shootout between the two teams. With the Saints defense stopping approximately nobody lately, Drew Brees will be forced to throw often and score plenty – and Big Jim will be his top target. Third, just look at that matchup. The Bears defense has been just as bad as the Saints the last few weeks. And they also have the distinction of allowing the MOST FPPG to opposing TEs. Jimmy Graham was built to destroy the Bears sluggish zone coverage, which has struggled vs even lackluster TEs this season. For the salary-equivalent of just the 28th-most expensive WR (That’s Anquan Boldin/Jarvis Landry territory btw), you can roster Graham, who has top-10 RECEIVER upside on a weekly basis, and faces the most favorable TE matchup in the NFL. Trust the data and give him one more chance this week.”
WR Kenny Stills
I love the Saints passing attack this week, and that includes a likely bounceback for Kenny Stills. He’s a high-ceilling WR at a modest price.
RB #AngryIngram
I’m expecting an aerial assault for the Saints this week, but Mark Ingram is still a fine RB play. The Bears defense has been unraveling against the run of late, and Ingram should be locked into high volume with the Saints leading. Like other midrange RBs, I would rather pay up for someone like Le’Veon Bell, but if you want to be different in tournaments Ingram is a solid choice.
WR Marques Colston
Even Marques Colston might get in on the Saints production party this week – the Bears are just that bad. Colston is a cheap way to get exposure to the Saints explosive passing attack this week.
Chicago Bears
RB Matt Forte
The Saints have played horrible run defense of late, solidifying and already-solid Matt Forte as a top-4 RB play.
WR Alshon Jeffery
With Brandon Marshall on IR, Jeffery should be a target monster this week. He does face the coverage of sometimes-shutdown CB Keenan Lewis, but the sheer volume of opportunities mean Jeffery is a strong option. Don’t be surprised if his price jumps heavily before season’s end.
TE Martellus Bennett
Bennett is a savvy pivot from Gronk/Graham, given the increased looks he should see with Brandon Marshall out of the picture. The Saints also just benched safety Kenny Vaccaro, so there could be shaky backend play that Bennett can take advantage of. Bennett is a top-4 TE this week.
QB Jay Cutler
The Saints are a disaster on defense and allow the 8th-most FPPG to QBs. Cutler is a fine stack target this week if you’re targeting Alshon or Wilson, but there are QBs
WR Marquess Wilson
Wilson is arguably the top value WR this week. I discussed him as a Bargain Bin Baller in my WR/TE Grind Down for RotoWorld:
“Marquess Wilson, Chicago Bears $4,500”
While he isn’t much of a secret anymore thanks to the infinite power of the internets, Bears WR Marquess Wilson is a minimum-priced WR option whose opportunity AND talent mean he should be priced much higher. Wilson steps into the starter spotlight this week against the Saints, replacing stud WR Brandon Marshall (who is now on IR) in the Bears lineup. If you haven’t heard about Wilson prior to this week, the gist is that he has literally ALL the prototypical physical tools you want in a #1 WR. The real question for the 6’4, 200+ lb Wilson isn’t his physical traits, though – it’s how many targets he’ll get. With the Saints/Bears game set at a total of 54 points (one of the highest of Week 15), and neither defense playing very well lately, there should be plenty of targets for Bears receivers this week, and plenty of chances for Wilson to make his mark both between the 20s and in the red-zone.”
Hope you enjoyed the #GrindDown this week. If you did, drop a comment below, tweet me @ohnjz, or just send me an unmarked envelope filled with Orange Starburst.
Good luck this week!