NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-12-14 15:39:05

Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Washington Redskins					New York Giants

Sun – 1:00 PM					MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts	Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
Vegas Odds		7	46.5	19.75	Vegas Odds		-7	46.5	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush	Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.8	25	18	19	Offense	22.5	14	12	18
Defense	22.5	14	12	18	Defense	18.8	25	18	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE	Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	17	23	10	20	Washington Redskins	32	3	21	29
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards	Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon	88	58	3	602	Beckham
Jackson	78	47	5	942	Randle	104	57	2	618
Roberts	64	32	2	351	Parker	45	30	2	354
Reed	47	36	0	377	Donnell	79	55	6	544

Washington Redskins

TE Jordan Reed

Reed’s athleticism and usage makes him a weekly consideration. With the Giants on deck (5th-most FPPG to TEs), I like Reed as a salary relief option with a sneaky high ceilling.

RB Alfred Morris

Morris was an absolute disaster with just 17 total yards last week, but should be a high-floor consideration against a Giants squad allowing the 5th-most FPPG and 108.8 rushing yards per game to RBs.

WR DeSean Jackson

DJax is reportedly ’50-50’ to play this week. There’s no need to take the risk here..

WR Pierre Garcon

Pierre Garcon is really only interesting if DeSean Jackson is unable to play.

NY Giants

WR Odell Beckham JR

I’m truly upset this week. I decided to make my love of ODB official and adopt him as my son, and it turns out he already has a family. Sometimes life just isn’t fair.

If you’re surprised that ODB massacred the Titans defense for 11-130-1 last week, you clearly haven’t been reading the #GrindDown every week. ODB has been championed here since the dawn of time. And that stance will continue this week, against a Redskins defense that has a nasty allergy where whenever they drop into pass coverage, they allow big plays. The Skins only allow the 15th-most FPPG to WRs, but also grade out as the WORST coverage unit on PFF. They have no one capable of containing ODB – he is an elite WR play.

QB Eli Manning

Eli had a MASSIVE game against these Redskins earlier this season, and they’ve since continued to get bombed by opposing QBs (2nd-most FPPG, WORST PFF coverage grade). Eli has massive upside in this matchup.

RB Rashad Jennings/Andre Williams

Our man Bryan Fontaine has all the Rashad Jennings analysis you could ever want in this week’s Advanced Matchup Plays

TE Larry ‘LEGEND’ Donnell

It was against these same Redskins that Larry Legend scored 3 TDs and forced us to reconsider whether a player needs to retire before being elected to the NFL Hall of Fame. He’s a strong salary relief play given the Redskins habit of deciding to just not cover opposing players.

WR Rueben Randle

Rueben Randle is begrudgingly listed as a salary relief play. As you might have gathered, the Redskins are garbage in pass coverage. Basically any WR with a pulse deserves a look against them.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars					Baltimore Ravens

Sun – 1:00 PM					M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts	Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
Vegas Odds		14	45	15.5	Vegas Odds		-14	45	29.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush	Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.3	32	30	24	Offense	27.4	7	13	2
Defense	27.4	7	13	2	Defense	15.3	32	30	24
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE	Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore Ravens	27	1	32	13	Jacksonville Jaguars	15	28	14	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards	Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Shorts					Smith	70	38	8	609
Hurns	77	40	6	566	Smith
Lee	45	27	1	335	Brown	20	17	0	162
Lewis	23	14	1	178	Daniels	59	41	3	412

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars RBs

Injury Update: RB Denard Robinson was placed on I.R. This is more of an upgrade to the Ravens Defense than it is any other Jags RB

The Jags backfield is back to being a complete and utter mess in real life and DFS following the decision to place Denard Robinson on IR. At this time, we don’t know who of Toby Gerhart, Storm Johnson, or Jordan Todman (if any of them) will see the bulk of the work. Gerhart faltered in the lead role earlier this season. Storm has the coolest name but also failed to impress when given his crack at the job. And Todman is a passing-down back (though we used to say the same about D-Rob). None are very appealing going forward, and YOU MUST NOT PLAY ANY OF THEM against the Ravens cast of large scary creatures whose sole objective is to destroy opposing running games.

Jaguars WR Roulette

Hypothetically, if Blake Bortles can survive the NFL’s top-graded pass-rush (per PFF), he should be rewarded with targets running free downfield. the Ravens have freefalled to the point that they allow the 2nd-most FPPG to opposing WRs, making even the Jaguars WR trio enticing this week. Unfortunately it’s purely speculation who among the Jags WRs will be the most successful on a weekly basis, as the trio of Cecil Shorts, Marqise Lee, and Allen Hurns have 63 targets total over the last 3 games, but have 20-21-22 each, respectively. Each has tournament upside but there are much surer bets at WR this week.

Baltimore Ravens

RB Justin Forsett

Strength meets weakness this week as the Ravens top-graded run-blocking unit should bulldoze a Jags defensive front that grades out as the 7th-worst in run-defense. After a season of singing his praises in the face of weekly doubters, not much is left to be said about Justin Forsett. He has been simply excellent in this system, and is a high-floor/high-ceiling play with this cake matchup on deck.

Too Many Smiths

Torrey Smith’s recent injury struggles have made it easy to peg the correct Smith to target in DFS lately. If Torrey is again limited this week, Steve Smith becomes a fine play against a Jags secondary that allows the 12th-most FPPG to opposing WRs. There’s not much buzz about either Smith this week, meaning you might be able to secure a very low ownership in tournaments.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

New York Jets					Tennessee Titans

Sun – 4:05 PM					LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts	Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
Vegas Odds		-1	42	21.5	Vegas Odds		1	42	20.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush	Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	16.2	30	32	8	Offense	16.9	29	25	27
Defense	16.9	29	25	27	Defense	16.2	30	32	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE	Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	16	27	20	17	New York Jets	28	5	25	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards	Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Decker	80	51	4	557	Wright	83	51	5	633
Harvin	65	46	1	437	Washington	55	32	2	527
Kerley	60	29	1	256	Hagan	17	14	1	191
Cumberland	34	15	1	154	Walker	85	48	4	700

New York Jets

RB Chris Johnson & Chris Ivory

Narrative Street Alert: Chris Johnson REVENGE GAME
RADTHAD NARRATIVE STREET INDEX: 8

Both Johnson and Ivory are in play this week against the league’s most porous run defense. Let’s talk about that matchup first. The Titans are allowing both high quantity and high quality to opposing rushing attacks. They allow nearly THIRTY attempts per game, and an NFL-leading 121.3 rushing yards to RBs. They also grade out as the WORST run-defense squad in the NFL (surprising no one who has watched their games). We attack this situation every week in the #GrindDown – and we’re going to do so again this week.

The unfortunate part is that the Titans face a timeshare backfield this week. Both Jets RBs are still in play, but they also cap each other’s upside. For those that like a nice jaunt down Narrative Street, it’s important to note that it’s a REVENGE GAME for Chris Johnson. Johnson still has the raw speed and athleticism to punish defenses – his problem is that he often looks like he doesn’t give a shit. I can see him getting up for this game though. Opposite Johnson is Chris Ivory, who is the more talented pure runner and always gives full effort when grinding out extra yards. Speed and power. Effort and laziness. The two couldn’t be more different, but any way you slice it they both of an excellent chance to produce this week. Of the two Johnson figures to have the lower floor, because if he’s not mentally in the game he could literally give oyu nothing. Ivory on the other hand has a high floor, but if you roster him in cash games, you’re doing so with the knowledge that he could get you an ‘empty’ 60-70 yards if the Jets don’t get him goal-line opportunities. Regardless, both Jets RBs are viable thanks to the matchup.

WR Percy Harvin

Harvin had quite the revenge game last week with 6-124-1 against the Vikings, but also endured an ankle injury. There was a lot of talk about the severity of the injury throughout the week, with some reporters even suggesting Harvin might be shut down for the season… but Harvin got in ‘limited’ practices on Thursday and Friday and insists he’ll play this week. If he indeed able to go, Harvin will be a risky but high-ceiling WR against a Titans squad that has been ripped by top WRs of late.

WR Eric Decker

Decker’s value this week hinges on Harvin’s status. Harvin playing theoretically limits Decker’s opportunities, and in an offense that hardly passes as it is, Decker is hard to trust. He becomes more interesting as a viable low-end WR if Harvin doesn’t play.

Tennessee Titans

TE Delanie Walker

I wrote up Delanie Walker as my top value TE of Week 15. Click this text to check it out.

RB Bishop Sankey

Sometimes being contrarian is actually just being dumb.